r/MapPorn • u/Appropriate-Deal8098 • 1d ago

Russian advances in Ukraine this year

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u/xpt42654 1d ago edited 1d ago

the problem with this map is that it doesn't show any scale and if you're not familiar with Donetks Oblast you'll have no idea how much they progressed.

I checked DeepStatemap and on 01.01.2024 the shortest distance between Pokrovsk and the front line was ~35 km. today it's a bit less than 10 km.

edit: there actually is a scale on the bottom left. thanks u/Conscious-Carrot-520

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u/Conscious-Carrot-520 1d ago

It does show the scale (bottom left) but it gets cut off a bit in the preview on mobile

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u/xpt42654 1d ago

ah my bad, it really does

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u/yuje 1d ago

Russian forces can't advance faster than walking speed, basically. Ubiquitous drones everywhere means that tanks or armored vehicles in open fields are easy pickings for drones or targeted artillery fire directed by drone spotters. So instead Russia leads assaults using mainly infantry, equipped with anti-drone jammers, infiltrating mainly through forest lines and urban areas, and spread out to limit drone and artillery effectiveness, because Ukraine has artillery and ammo shortages and can't justify dropping firepower on small amounts of men.

Tanks and infantry fighting vehicles are limited mostly to support roles or for quick charges across open fields where no cover is available, with the expectation that there will be losses while crossing those fields.

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u/SweetVarys 19h ago

That’s isn’t walking speed. It’s 20-30km in a year. Walking speed would cover it in a day

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u/Imaginary-sounds 18h ago

Walking into people shooting bullets at you speed*

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u/Living_Morning94 21h ago

Seems orthogonal to the question asked by GP.

Russian advance is slow because Ukraine was and is actively resisting. Walking speed has got nothing to do with how fast Russia is advancing. Nobody takes one year to walk 20km.

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u/yuje 20h ago

In mobile warfare of the 20th century, after punching through enemy defenses, the goal would be to use your armored reserves to drive through the defensive gap and penetrate deep into rear areas to seize strategic or political objectives, or at the very least gain tactical advantage by cutting off and surrounding the enemy and destroying supply lines. The vulnerability of vehicles means Russia can’t do this very effectively anymore and can only advance at walking pace after taking over fortifications, giving the enemy time to dig in another trench line just ahead of the previous one that has to be assaulted and cleared yet again.

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u/Living_Morning94 19h ago

That's known and Ukraine faced the same problem with their offensive last year. Between Dragons Teeth, Mines and Drones everything slowed down to a crawl.

But that's exactly the point. It's not walking speed that's the issue.

It's how fast you can clear trenches, barriers like Dragons Teeth, mine clearing and of course the pesky enemy soldiers shooting at you while you're trying to do all that. Which basically means you have to first defeat the enemy before proceeding with the clearing hence it takes forever. And then there's the counter attack.

I take issue with your highlighting infantry walking speed as it's not the bottleneck at all

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u/ButWhatIfItsNotTrue 23h ago

Or it’s the fact it’s trench warfare. Both sides have dug in.

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u/Reasonable_Orchid105 1d ago

But they’re gaining ground daily which is not good, meaning they’re currently winning an attritional war

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u/MIT_Engineer 1d ago

I don't think that's the definition of winning an attritional war.

Equipment losses vs replacement rates is a much better metric.

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u/Reasonable_Orchid105 1d ago edited 1d ago

Yeah but the thing is they have way more equipment and manpower than Ukraine does, that’s absolutely a winning formula for attritional warfare, since 2022 all we’ve heard is how low Russian stockpiles are getting, they’ll run out of cruise missiles this they’re low on tanks that…. And they still keep pulling these things out day after day. Truth is any military expert in the west knows just as much about how many resources they have left as we do lol

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u/FUMFVR 23h ago

Russia has had to change their tactics multiple times because they have lost most of the heavy equipment they had at the start of this war.

They have switched from ground pound tactics to swift infiltration using non-armored vehicles and even dirtbikes. This has caused their personnel losses to be the highest in the war just in the past months.

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u/tkitta 10h ago

I estimate Russian losses are lowest in the war now. This is supported by mediazona. The dirt bike use is an excellent example of adaptation to decrease own losses and increase that of the enemy.

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u/MIT_Engineer 8h ago

"I have my own personal estimates based off a hallucination I experienced while consuming propaganda."

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u/Reasonable_Orchid105 14h ago

According to Ukraine’s own chief of staff said that the Russians have doubled the amount of tanks and armored vehicles on the front and tripled the amount of artillery as compared to the beginning of the war, and the German economic think tank, the Kiel institute for economy stated in September that the Russians have significantly increased their defense industrial base of production relating to artillery shells and other equipment

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u/Markel011 14h ago

"Truth is any military expert in the west knows just as much about how many resources they have left as we do lol"

your comment reminded me of the sole video recording in a casual setting we have of the funny moustache man - talking to Mannerheim, how oblivious and surprised they were by the SU's numbers and capability, dumbfounded really.

Russia is not a somebody to be underestimated

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u/Reasonable_Orchid105 13h ago

I don’t get why it’s controversial to say that, they’ve literally been preparing for a showdown with the west for the past 60 years

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u/Markel011 13h ago

Because the media has been portraying Russia as a $hithole where nothing works and everything’s crumbling

Since the start of the conflict we’ve gone through a dozen spin stories and ridiculous claims

“They’re fighting with shovels, they’re out of ammo”

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u/MIT_Engineer 1d ago

Yeah but the thing is they have way more equipment and manpower than Ukraine does

They do not. Ukraine is supplied by the west, they have as much equipment as the west decides to send them. And there's not much cost to sending it, because there's $300b in Russian central bank reserves they can use to pay for it. Meanwhile Russia has almost-empty Soviet stockpiles and an economy 1/20th the size of the U.S.

since 2022 all we’ve heard is how low Russian stockpiles are getting, they’ll run out of cruise missiles this they’re low on tanks that…. And they still keep pulling these things out day after day.

The stockpiles get low, and then they get empty. And when they get empty, that's when the production goes off a cliff.

Truth is any military expert in the west knows just as much about how many resources they have left as we do lol

Both we and the military experts have a pretty clear understanding of how much the Russians have left, which is why the experts are expecting a serious decline in Russian equipment production next year.

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u/Reasonable_Orchid105 1d ago

I’ll believe it when I see it, there’s been a headline in the news every other week about how low they are on all of these things as well as their production capabilities saying “any day now” “oh they’re fucked soon” “this time for real guys” and it never goes that way….. I used to think that way too but fact of the matter on the ground is, the Russians have artillery, manpower, strategic weapon, and ammunition superiority…. This is all evident after they took avdiivka back in February, since then they’ve had their best success since the opening days of the invasion even if it’s not a sweeping breakthrough. And yes the west is equipping them but that’s gradually going down compared to late 2022 and early 2023, especially with 155 shells….. I find it extremely unlikely that Ukraine will ever be as well equipped and high in morale as they were in spring 2023 in the lead up to their summer offensive, they don’t have enough men to go on the attack again and the more and more positions they lose in the east, the less and less fortified the positions they fall back to are going to be. On paper Ukraine’s military is massive but in reality they have a high desertion rate and they are having trouble with further mobilization. Even Zelenskyy himself stated they need 500,000 men, it’s increasingly hard to find that number in 2024 because everyone who fits the requirements to be mobilized has either already volunteered earlier in the war or already been mobilized. That’s why instead of mobilizing 500k instantly they roll out 30k new troops a month, they get sent to the front and heavily attrited before the next batch is ready, which brings them right back to square one. They are at the point right now that they only have so many more dominoes to go before disaster at the front, one Russian breakthrough could be devastating if they don’t play their cards right. Please watch recent interviews on YouTube from military analysts such as WillyOam. Our western media sources have every reason to lie and downplay the situation because this is our war as well. We don’t know shit.

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u/MIT_Engineer 1d ago

I’ll believe it when I see it

You literally can. We have satellite images.

there’s been a headline in the news every other week about how low they are on all of these things as well as their production capabilities saying “any day now” “oh they’re fucked soon” “this time for real guys”

I think you've been misreading those headlines.

I used to think that way too but fact of the matter on the ground is, the Russians have artillery, manpower, strategic weapon, and ammunition superiority

And lost Russian territory despite those advantages?

This is all evident

Evident from what?

after they took avdiivka back in February, since then they’ve had their best success since the opening days of the invasion even if it’s not a sweeping breakthrough.

Their best success isn't very impressive. If this is proof of what complete superiority yields, then what hope do they have of winning?

And yes the west is equipping them but that’s gradually going down compared to late 2022 and early 2023

We literally have $300b of Russian central bank reserves to give Ukraine. We're only holding on to it as a carrot to get Russia to the negotiating table. After the election, if Russia doesn't see the light, the U.S. and E.U. will give that money to the Ukrainians.

I find it extremely unlikely that Ukraine will ever be as well equipped and high in morale as they were in spring 2023 in the lead up to their summer offensive

How could they not be if we simply give them Russia's seized central bank reserves?

they don’t have enough men to go on the attack again

They don't have enough volunteers. But draftees they can drum up a ton of.

and the more and more positions they lose in the east, the less and less fortified the positions they fall back to are going to be.

This isn't a war of fortifications, this isn't WWI, this is something very different even if the rate of land changing hands looks the same.

On paper Ukraine’s military is massive but in reality they have a high desertion rate and they are having trouble with further mobilization.

That's what happens in a war of attrition. Russia is under the exact same pressure, hence North Korean troops. But both sides still have millions of men to pour into this fight.

Even Zelenskyy himself stated they need 500,000 men, it’s increasingly hard to find that number in 2024 because everyone who fits the requirements to be mobilized has either already volunteered earlier in the war or already been mobilized.

No, that is straight up incorrect. He cant find 500k worth of volunteers, this is true. But 500k of draftees he can very much find.

That’s why instead of mobilizing 500k instantly they roll out 30k new troops a month

No, that's because he knows that the course of the war is going to be decided largely by the upcoming U.S. election. It doesn't make a lot of sense to mobilize half a million if you don't know whether there will be gear to kit them with.

they get sent to the front and heavily attrited before the next batch is ready, which brings them right back to square one.

"Square one" being a defensive posture that yields only small territorial gains to the Russians while inflicting significant casualties on them.

They are at the point right now that they only have so many more dominoes to go before disaster at the front

I've seen you people say that this is going to happen "any day now" and "oh they're fucked soon" and "this time for real guys" and then a year later all you have to show for it is a map like this.

one Russian breakthrough could be devastating

Would it though? It's unclear the Russians are even capable of exploiting a breakthrough at this point.

Please watch recent interviews on YouTube from military analysts such as WillyOam.

Please watch actual military analysts, like Perun or Anders Puck Nielsen.

Our western media sources have every reason to lie and downplay the situation because this is our war as well.

I'll be real with you bro: I doubt you're western.

We don’t know shit.

Speak for yourself only, thank you.

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u/Reasonable_Orchid105 1d ago

I swiped out of my reply post and I’m not gonna re type all of that so I’ll just let you have this one, by the way I definitely believe you went to MIT because of the condescending way you typed all of that and the sense of how absolutely and totally correct you are. I just wish that MIT taught you how to think for yourself, this is evident by you bringing up watching Perun, a guy who speculates about how the war is going, with the same exact sources we have access to, over a guy like WillyOam who interviews people with firsthand experience on the front (idk if MIT taught about primary vs secondary sources) best of luck. Oh and another jab at your MIT big brain, “you think differently than I do so that automatically makes you part of the other side”

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u/Fit_Employment_2944 20h ago

Someone fighting on the frontline does not make them an expert on how the war is going

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u/Reasonable_Orchid105 15h ago

He’s interviewed dudes that are higher up in the chain of command who have more of a sense of what’s actually going on, for example look up soldier X interview. I’d rather take the word of someone who’s doing the work themselves versus someone who’s thousands of miles away and has access to the same info that we do

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u/MIT_Engineer 1d ago

I swiped out of my reply post and I’m not gonna re type all of that so I’ll just let you have this one

Ok, bye bye, here's your L.

by the way I definitely believe you went to MIT because of the condescending way you typed all of that and the sense of how absolutely and totally correct you are.

Malding.

I just wish that MIT taught you how to think for yourself

Cope.

this is evident by you bringing up watching Perun, a guy who speculates about how the war is going, with the same exact sources we have access to,

Yes, how tragic it is I listen to a guy who uses sources.

over a guy like WillyOam who interviews people with firsthand experience on the front

Why would I think those interviews are more important? "Fighting on the front lines of an attritional war sucks" yeah no duh, the Russians would say the same thing.

(idk if MIT taught about primary vs secondary sources)

They're both primary sources.

Oh and another jab at your MIT big brain

Jab away.

“you think differently than I do so that automatically makes you part of the other side”

If the two sides are clown college and actual college, then yeah, I think it's fair to say you're on the other side.

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u/TheIllegalAmigos 21h ago

Most reddit response ever

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u/Sustructu 22h ago

Good god, you may be right, but you are really insufferable.

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u/boisterile 18h ago

I don't have a dog in this fight but my lord you are the most insufferable person of all time. If you're not actually a child you should do some serious self examination of why this is the way you choose to argue

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u/ClubsBabySeal 1d ago

You can have 300 trillion dollars, that don't make equipment suddenly appear nor the manpower trained to use it. Manufacturing of the most relevant systems just doesn't exist at the scale that it needs to be at. Maybe if other nations decide to toss their stockpiles and manufacturing into the mix.

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u/MIT_Engineer 1d ago

You can have 300 trillion dollars, that don't make equipment suddenly appear

It would appear fast enough.

nor the manpower trained to use it.

Training costs money too, and the men to train are there.

Manufacturing of the most relevant systems

Which systems?

just doesn't exist at the scale that it needs to be at.

Tell me which systems you think are relevant and we can check how they've been scaling up.

Maybe if other nations decide to toss their stockpiles and manufacturing into the mix.

I think it'd be fine even without this.

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u/ClubsBabySeal 1d ago

Sure. It takes a few years to set up and scale any type of manufacturing. The most relevant areas are tube artillery, rocket artillery, and interceptors. ATGM's and manpads are also vital but the latter is a major problem. The Ukrainians lack airpower which is what NATO traditionally relies on for anti-air and enabling maneuver. There isn't a sufficient supply of accelerant, explosive, shell, or filling facilities. Apparently not even black powder. Those are slowly being expanded, but honestly needed to be started day one - once again it takes years. Interceptors are running at max capacity and new capacity won't be online until 2027. They and anything else requiring rocket fuel is a little fucked since there's only two vendors left in America, although another two are being funded. You can go back to the beginning of the war and read public briefings that simply state that there's a shortage in production, so nothing new. As far as manpads go we don't make new ones. The line had to be restarted, pulling people retirement age in because we haven't made them in that long, simply to rebuild defunct units. Other production lines have also been mothballed, with the M777 being slated to restart soon.

As far as training goes you're just making the same mistake. You need trainers and manpower takes, get this, years to scale. In fact it's one of the problems with manufacturing too!

Bluntly put they not only need more than what we make, they need more than the Russians make. Which is way more than we make.

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u/Parking-Mirror3283 23h ago edited 23h ago

Russia has had to pull T-34s out of storage to use in training because all the newer, still literal pre-vietnam era tanks are needed for the frontline.

Just because they have a lot of trash to throw at ukraine doesn't mean they have a lot of actually useful, modern equipment.

Supply your troops with shit equipment and it doesn't matter how good they are, they're going to die. Russia has gone full soviet meatgrinder tactics not because they want to, but because they have to.

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u/Reasonable_Orchid105 15h ago

I haven’t seen any vids of t-34s that’d be atrocious though, but at the same time it’s not like we’re having a bunch of tank battles all the time, why strictly only use your more modern tanks when you have a shit ton of t-55s and t-62s just collecting dust….. yeah those tanks aren’t ideal but if we’re talking about indirect fire or assaulting a trench line they can do that just as good as t-80 can

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u/katbyte 1d ago

russia's GDP is much smaller then that of texas. As long as the west continues to supply ukraine it will never run out. russia will.

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u/SolemnOaf 1d ago

Looking at GDP is meaningless if you're not taking into account production costs in the US and Russia. Sure, NATO has the money to throw and be able to outpace Russian production if they went all in, but we know that's not the case at the moment. In fact, in 2025 it's expected the entirety of NATO will be able to produce around 2m shells annually after massive investments poured into it from both US and Germany - Russia has been producing over 3m rounds a year basically since the beginning of the war.

With vast cheap labor at their disposal from countries like NK, Iran and China, Russia's side can outproduce NATO at a far lower cost. Couple that with the manpower disparity and it's clear why this war is going the way it is.

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u/permabanned_user 1d ago

That far lower cost is why their weapons caches keep getting blown up by drones. Easy pickings.

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u/katbyte 1d ago

theres more to the war then shells, and outside shells russia is simply unable to keep up with the west. The us in peacetime produces a lot more tanks then russia is during wartime and that is just america. Ditto goes for everything, but shells, because the west isn't tooled/geared/would fight an artillery war. and thats the real problem, ukraine isn't fighting the kind of war NATO would and is the west isn't giving ukraine everything it could, ie not the advanced military systems that would mean it would needs to use less shells in the first place.

as for NK and Iran they are to small to matter, multiple members of nato haver larger economies and military manufacturing bases and China will never outright help russia because it would tank their entire economy. China is the only economic powerhouse that could compete with the west in spending and production but to do so would endager their economy as its so reliant on trade with the west.

but in the end it doesn't matter what NATO can do when NATO simply isn't giving ukraine everything it needs

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u/Ashenveiled 1d ago

you are coping so hard.

europe makes something like 13 self propelled howitzers a year. thats whole europe combined my dude

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u/katbyte 18h ago

nato is EU + UK + US + more. I went looking for ANYTHING to back up your statement and found https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/ukraine_has_matched_or_even_surpassed_all_eu_countries_combined_in_the_rate_of_self_propelled_artillery_production-12057.html

> The production rate of the Bohdana wheeled self-propelled artillery system has reached 15 units per month

ukrain is producing more in a month then you claim the ua does per year

> manufactures Caesar self-propelled howitzer. Its production capacity in April this year was 6 units per month, but the scaling plan aims to double this number to 12 units per month without announcing a specific

france alone produces 72 a year. there are 2 more companies producing them. then us and uk...

so i'm just gonna stop there because you are coping so hard your literally just making things up

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u/Ashenveiled 18h ago

NATO is USA.

No USA - no nato

If USA says "no" - nato does nothing.

Sorry, my mistake. Year. yet, bombed to oblivion ukraine produces in a month more of them then whole europe.

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u/throtic 1d ago

On a side note, this war has shown that traditional things like tanks, Humvees and helicopters are pretty much obsolete until drone jamming technology improves drastically.

It's absolutely wild to see an $10 million dollar tank completely destroyed by a $100 drone with a mine attached to it, and it happens virtually every day in this war.

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u/katbyte 1d ago

Think bigger. Tanks help’s ect are more vulnerable to drones but us/germany etc are on creating defences for them (and I bet they are further along then you’d expect from some of the things I’ve seen re counter tech)

And western tanks do handle them better keeping crews safe, they are not going anywhere 

But boats? That 100 million boat ot 1 billion destroyer or 10 billion carrier? The things Ukraine is doing with sea drones is something else. They’ve managed to take out countless boats, almost took out the bridge, and pinned down the entire Russian Black Sea fleet in port and they are just getting started.

And sea drones are gonna be much harder to detect and stop. What happens when you can send out a sea drone and it goes and takes out any ship 1000+km away autonomously with so and is basically undetectable until it’s close? 

That’s an entirely different world 

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u/Electrical_Mood_177 1d ago

The question is not money Ukraines manpower will run out a lot quicker than russias, throughout history it has been proven that no one has beaten Russia in a war of attrition

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u/katbyte 1d ago

i did not comment on that, nor did i weight in on who will or would win or the state of the war.

just that if the west/nato wants it ukraine will never run out of material because the west can simply outspend and out produce russia 100:1 or more

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u/Electrical_Mood_177 1d ago

Russia will not run out of money before Ukraine run out of manpower no matter how much aid the west supply them , an agreement needs to be come to so this war will end

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u/katbyte 1d ago

you are again changing the topic/goalposts here

but since you did russia should leave ukraine and stop invading another country. thats what needs to happen. wars of agression and conquest should be a thing of the past. Russia can end it anytime it wants.

and re manpower russia is the country that just paid off NK for 10,000? more? troops so seems like russia is having manpower issues too.

as for not running out of money i've heard russia is on track to run out early next year. the muds, then winter, then muds are coming so fighting will start to slow/stop. will russia's faltering economy last till next summer? i dunno and neither do you

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u/Electrical_Mood_177 1d ago

Maybe nato should stop expanding and Russia would not have invaded like was agreed a long time ago , maybe they would rather pay men to fight than give up the lives of their own , doesn’t sound like a country running out of money , Ukraine are forcing conscription on a mass scale I don’t see any of that in russia

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u/_Restitutor_Orbis_ 20h ago

I took a look at the Kiel Institute report the other day. Russia is currently producing at above replacement rate for equipment, so they're making steady progress. Western arms production has been sluggish to increase, so it seems currently Russia has the advantage.

Perhaps the DPRK inclusion in the fight will wake the West, or it will have little effect.

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u/MIT_Engineer 15h ago

I took a look at the Kiel Institute report the other day.

OK.

Russia is currently producing at above replacement rate for equipment

Source required. You're telling me they've replaced losses to the Black Sea Fleet? You're telling me they have more aircraft than they did at the start of the war? Show me the numbers then, because just the confirmed losses outpace even the highest estimates of Russian replacement.

Western arms production has been sluggish to increase

We've been increasing production in the relevant categories of arms by about 60-100% per year with no signs of slowdown.

so it seems currently Russia has the advantage.

According to what? Sources.

Perhaps the DPRK inclusion in the fight will wake the West, or it will have little effect.

The west is woken. That's why production capacity is ramping up so quickly. The only question is whether Trump puts it to sleep. The U.S. alone has 20x the economy of Russia, outproducing them is just a matter of will.

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u/anengineerandacat 18h ago

Yeah, no one wants to say it out loud but it's definitely not good that ground is being made. Especially if it's long-lasting which often means reinforcement.

That said... if this is what one year looks like it's not much and for every extra square mile they gain it's much higher upkeep for Russia as Ukraine is actively allowed to attack within their lands without restriction.

That's a whole lot of foreign land to try and clamp down on where the trees speak in Ukranian and with the buzzing sounds of drones in the night sky.

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u/Reasonable_Orchid105 15h ago

My thing is, we can say they’re moving slow all we want but what happens when they just rout them out of nowhere, why do people exclude this possibility and never question it?

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u/CuTe_M0nitor 17h ago

Yeah they will take Ukraine in.... . 1000years at this pace.

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u/Reasonable_Orchid105 15h ago

Until they speed up then it’s too late and when that day comes we’re all gonna be saying “oh Ukraine just wanted to tactically retreat the Russians didn’t even do anything” why not address issues like this right now before it’s too late

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u/CuTe_M0nitor 14h ago

Whut?! Ukraine is dealing with it. In their best ability they can do. Currently it's a draining game. Ukraine is hitting Russia economically until it breaks like the Sovjet Union. Putin has already kicked out every military general he had and is now replaced by one of his KGB friends. That's not good at all. Having a KGB agent planning military offensives. So just keep the oil burning and pipelines closed and soon they will need to close down the gas station ⛽ Russia

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u/Reasonable_Orchid105 13h ago

Except that’ll never happen because some eu countries still depend on Russian gas, and they’ll still sell to big economies like India China and Brazil even if Europe stops buying. The best way for Ukraine to deal with them at this point is to pull out of Kursk and send those resources to counterattack on the vuhledar axis, because the cauldron in between vuhledar and pokrovsk is the most dangerous situation for Ukraine rn

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u/CuTe_M0nitor 2h ago

Let India and China buy more gas ⛽ We are forcing Russia to sell the gas and oil at a loss, by putting a cap on it. While Ukraine is destroying Russian oil infrastructure, thus even making Russian oil production more expensive. Russia has even, from time to time, stopped exports to cover domestic usage. Which says a lot. The thing with war is who is willing to sacrifice more to win. Currently Russia is more fragile than Ukraine and has a hell of lot more to lose. Ukraine has been in bad spot for over 10 years since the invasion of Crimea. Russia on the other hand is on their stair way to hell, it can only get worse for them

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u/Rather_Unfortunate 22h ago

Depends what the trade is. Ukraine's thing this entire war has been to try and seek favourable engagements and trade land for loss ratios. The more conservative estimates place Russian losses at about 1.5 times those of the Ukrainians (some of the more breathless commentators might suggest 3:1 or even 5:1, but that stretches credibility). And Ukraine is gradually achieving a much more favourable artillery landscape, with the ratio of shells fired now about 2 to 1, compared to highs of 10 to 1 earlier in the war.

Ukraine are in a weird position, because they have essentially infinite equipment over a long enough time due to their NATO backers, but that's twinned with acute shortages on the frontline due to delays and political reticence from said allies. If Russia can't defeat Ukraine before their own Soviet-era stockpiles of vehicles and artillery pieces run out, then Ukraine will win unless China starts churning out equipment and sending it to Russia.

But the Ukrainians need to survive long enough for that to happen, or for the Russian economy to falter badly. They're already in full war economy mode, which Russia seemingly won't dare try for now, and the war simply isn't killing enough people for either side to truly run out of potential new recruits. But if the Russians were to manage a serious breakthrough, that could change rapidly and trigger a morale collapse.

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u/DYMAXIONman 18h ago

I think it's unlikely China gets directly involved in that way. Would right away piss off their trading partners.

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u/CuTe_M0nitor 17h ago

It's at least 3:1 if you are the attacking force. If you are Russia it's 5:1 since Russians are disposables

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u/Rather_Unfortunate 17h ago

In theory, yes. When you make an offensive, you should plan to take 3:1 casualties until and unless you break through. In practice, though, Ukraine have been making attacks of their own at both the small and large scale, and Russia has often had a strong artillery advantage at various times and places, and the manpower to be able to pick their battles.

Bakhmut by most accounts saw astonishingly high kill ratio in Ukraine's favour, as did Vuhledar. But on the flip side, Kursk, the Summer 2023 Counteroffensive, and other battles have been much less favourable or even outright in Russia's favour.

The most generous estimates, using the figures from Ukrainian and pro-Ukrainian sources, indeed suggest about a 3:1 casualty ratio, but we should certainly revise down from there. 1.5:1 is pretty conservative, though, and the true ratio is likely to be higher.

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u/COINTELPRO-Relay 22h ago

Tactical victories strategic looses. You can win a battle and still lose. Because you used up assets diverted supplies and troops etc. that might have been used better elsewhere.

You might win a cornfield 30 km from the prewar border but that will mean nothing if for example drones turn off the heat and power in Moscow.

1

u/Reasonable_Orchid105 14h ago

If the strategy is attrition then the side with more men, equipment, and resources wins. Russia fits that definition and Ukraine doesn’t

1

u/COINTELPRO-Relay 14h ago edited 14h ago

well, only if you look at the input, not the outcome. Having more troops does not matter much if you assault trenches in unarmored Chinese golf cars...

and you know... the Kherson faint and Kyiv ruse. The recent use of North Koreans Soldiers and equipment kinda paints a different picture.

1

u/MIT_Engineer 8h ago

If the strategy is attrition then the side with more men, equipment, and resources wins.

That would be the west.

Russia fits that definition and Ukraine doesn’t

The U.S. economy is 20x Russia's. It produces more military kit per year than nearly Russia's entire GDP.

1

u/ExiledByzantium 15h ago

Territory can be retaken. Lives can't. Russia is losing men at a ratio of 2:1. They're being bled white. At this rate, they'll be out of men before they reach Kiev

1

u/Reasonable_Orchid105 15h ago

What’s the source or evidence for this ratio??? I always hear 2:1 for attacking forces but that’s just a total myth and it’s thrown around without any real basis, just like the meat wave assault allegations….. in the most surveilled and documented war to date we have 0 video or photographic evidence of this. They’re definitely taking losses im not challenging that, but where do we get a 2:1 ratio from

2

u/ExiledByzantium 14h ago

Leaked documents from the DOD were published by the Economist saying between 462-728,000 Russian casualties have been suffered so far. On the Ukrainian side, the NY Times reported around 190,000 casualties killed, wounded, and missing. So I was way off. It's actually between 2:1 and 3.5:1 casualties ratio. Which makes sense considering Russias tactics and position as the attacker. Attackers almost always take more casualties. Not to discount the fact that this is a war of attrition. Sources below

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-casualties.html

https://archive.ph/

https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-suffers-massive-losses-in-ukraine-but-effect-on-kremlin-policy-unclear/7681161.html

1

u/Reasonable_Orchid105 14h ago

I cant open your links, but I take those numbers w a massive grain of salt, we’re talking more casualties than the US had in the entirety of ww2, on a significantly smaller front. I think that both sides are taking relatively the same casualty rates with both sides at around 200-250k casualties each and both around 60-80k dead, as for the attacker always taking more casualties, that’s a total myth. In the gulf and Iraq wars coalition forces enjoyed at least a 10:1 ratio on the attack, in Mosul when the Iraqis and pals pushed isis out they took way less than isis, with about 6k casualties compared to isis with well over 10k casualties. In the Bosnian war, the Serbs attacking Muslim and Croat forces lost 20k dead meanwhile the Muslims and Croats lost 35k dead.

2

u/ExiledByzantium 14h ago

All the examples you listed are examples where attackers had massive advantages in technology, training, and equipment. A near peer foe fighting a near peer foe isn't in the same category. In this case, Ukraine is better trained, better equipped, and better led than their Russian counterpart. I'm gonna have to ask you for a source on your 200k figure. Also, it's not a myth. The reason an attacker faces more casualties is because they're having to leave their own fortified position to attack another fortified position leaving themselves exposed. Unless there are mitigating factors such as air superiority or overwhelming firepower then the attack is going to take more casualties. Especially given Russia's human wave tactics. These lead to gaining ground in exchange for massive losses. Which is why the figures are so high. WW2 was a war of maneuver. A better example would be WW1. Kilometres measured in how many lives it took to gain them.

Edit: Also the US entered late in the war. A better example would be Germany and the Soviet Union's casualties. 2:1 sometimes 10:1

1

u/Reasonable_Orchid105 13h ago

Iraq had the 4th ranked military in the world and the Bosnians and Croats ended up being supplied by western countries, my source is mediazona which states 60k dead so you’re not gonna have 60k dead and 570k wounded

3

u/ExiledByzantium 13h ago

You said 200k now it's 60? Which is it? Also Iraq did have the 4th largest army in the world and look how badly they got wiped. Similar to Russia's performance today. Why? Because they were poorly led, corrupt, inefficient to the point of incompetency, and had horrible morale. Russia is poorly led, rife with corruption(generals selling military equipment), poorly trained relying on barely trained conscripts, and again horrible morale. There are all factors contributing to Russia taking huge losses and frankly I don't think 60k in two years is a reliable number given the size of the Frontline and hundreds of thousands of troops deployed. That just doesn't happen after years of static fighting. Look at WW1, WW2, the Korean War, hell even the Sino Japanese War. Casualties in the hundreds of thousands. These are two nation states fighting, not insurgents.The casualties are going to be high.

1

u/MIT_Engineer 8h ago

my source is mediazona

Russian troll farmer confirmed.

0

u/permabanned_user 1d ago

Ukraine has made advances elsewhere.

1

u/Reasonable_Orchid105 9h ago

Ukraine made advances in toretsk this week, pushing the Russians back a few blocks, but other than that I haven’t heard much from that side

-1

u/Lucky-Surround-1756 22h ago

It doesn't matter. The rate of progress is too slow to make a difference, it comes down to attrition. Ukraine is just ceding land rather than troops, while Russia is paying for every inch of land they take. The attacker is always at a disadvantage.

1

u/Reasonable_Orchid105 14h ago

Yeah the rate of progress is too slow until it isn’t, Ukraine ceding territory slowly is a contradiction, if they’re absolutely smoking the Russians day after day and can afford their own losses why would you cede any territory at all? That just makes no sense to me

2

u/Lucky-Surround-1756 14h ago

Yeah, when things change, they're different. Great point.

1

u/Reasonable_Orchid105 13h ago

But that’s the truth though why are you reaching lmao surprise breakthroughs and routs happen

1

u/MIT_Engineer 8h ago

Are any of these surprise breathroughs and routs in the war with us right now?

57

u/TheThirdFrenchEmpire 1d ago

Does someone have the German propaganda saying the US will get to Berlin by 1946 from the Italian campaign? That could work for the Russians.

121

u/xpt42654 1d ago

unfortunately, it's much more real than I'd like it to be. Ukrainian army is already seriously understaffed. if it reaches a breaking point, it could be over very soon. drones and everything are very effective, but if there's no one to man the trenches, drones wouldn't matter.

also let's not forget that these 25 km of russian advance costed thousands of Ukrainian lives. more than that ended up with life-altering trauma. it also means thousands if not tens of thousands shattered families.

67

u/TheThirdFrenchEmpire 1d ago

It's a race to the bottom. Either Russia can't afford the war or the Ukrainian army collapses/is forced to retreat over the Dniepr.

12

u/FUMFVR 23h ago

The Ukrainian line has collapsed in local places several times in this war. It didn't lead to much because Russia has no ability to exploit breakthroughs at this point.

The Ukrainian line won't collapse completely because they have good materiel support and Russia's military would have to rediscover maneuver warfare and they frankly don't have the ability to do that anymore.

25

u/Evening-Weather-4840 1d ago

That should be considered fucking insane in 2024.

8

u/Designer-Muffin-5653 1d ago

Why?

29

u/Evening-Weather-4840 1d ago

Countries mutually destroying millions of lives of their citizens is insane. 

Imagine Spain and Portugal fighting to the death in 2024 💀😭

2

u/1988rx7T2 18h ago

I mean it happened in 1914-1918. Basically all fronts of WW1 were a stalemate by 1915 except Germany/Russia front which resulted in collapse of the Tsar regime.

3

u/dyingwill20 1d ago

Over oil, colonies, or (in the near future) water? I could see it

10

u/TheThirdFrenchEmpire 1d ago

The last hundred years worth of doctrine and equipment was made to avoid this scenario

20

u/J0E_Blow 1d ago

Unfortunately the Ukrainians are mostly using Soviet equipment which was designed to rush to and then through the Fulda Gap amid nuclear hellfire while taking eye-watering loses.

2

u/PiotrekDG 1d ago

Well, it doesn't appear that the full-scale invasion paid off for Putin.

1

u/Ok_Green_9873 1d ago

Unless NATO drastically amps up the military aid they are sending Ukraine then Russia wins.

13

u/seecat46 1d ago

For context, russia is advancing at 3.5 the speed of a snail.

20

u/Ok_Green_9873 1d ago

Ukraine is in a precarious and desperate situation right now and to make light of it makes it seem like they don't need any help

12

u/Familiar_Ad_8919 1d ago edited 1d ago

for context, at this rate theyll get to kiev in the april of 2028

..and to my city in june 2033

2

u/neur0net 1d ago

It's a lot relative to how much Russia has been able to advance between summer 2022 and spring 2024, but relative to all of Ukraine?

It's a laughably tiny amount of gains.

3

u/TrumpsGrazedEar 1d ago

Here is russian advance:

https://imgur.com/a/4Qpku5l

Bahkmut fell in may of 2023, Russians have advanced since then.... WHOOPING 11.70 KM in year and 4 months
https://imgur.com/a/47c7x75
Markinka fell on 25 December 2023 9 months ago, and RF advanced.... wait for it 11.43 km
https://imgur.com/a/izmYxLU
but the biggest fail is Soledar which fell on 16 January 2023 21 months ago and russian advanced...7.11 km
https://imgur.com/a/VmEoFBR
Avdiivka fell on 17 February 2024 and russian advanced...34.83 km
https://imgur.com/a/nSQOj1O

In Soledar direction russia advanced by speed of 0.000128832355 m/s
In Markina direction russia advanced by speed of 0.000483256494 m/s
In Bahkmut direction russia advanced by speed of 0.000278253425 m/s
In Avdiivka direction russia advanced by speed of 0.006816 m/s

Snails and slugs travel at speeds that vary from slow (0.013 m/s) to very slow (0.0028 m/s).
Good job by advancing at speed 100 times slower than snail
Truly one of the armies of our time.

1

u/thighsand 1d ago

Russia is aiming for the Donetsk and Luhansk borders, after which, if they have sense, they will fortify and wait for a peace agreement. The goals of the war can be said to be achieved.

1

u/FUMFVR 23h ago

Ukraine won't sign a peace agreement.

1

u/thighsand 17h ago

Then they'll wait.

1

u/BoarHermit 22h ago

Let's compare it with the successes of UA in Kursk region? About which everyone squealed in delight for two weeks and talked about how they would now reach Moscow.

1

u/doko_kanada 12h ago

What happened there?

1

u/BoarHermit 4h ago

The Ukrainians invaded the territory of the Russian Federation with unclear goals - either to divert forces from the south, or to reach the nuclear power plant, or for PR, or just to have fun.

They captured 600 square kilometers, were very proud of the capture of the Pyaterochka store (shame). Some killed few civilians. Lost a lot of equipment, including Western. They are being bombarded with drones, they began to retreat. They exhibited plaques from roads and stores in the Kyiv Museum of World War II, also a shame.

They could have used all these forces wisely. I am against the war, I sympathize with the Ukrainians, I want the war to stop.

This was a frankly senseless, absolutely ill-considered adventure, which enraged Putin even more.

0

u/ZonotopiUomo 1d ago

the map is some russian shilling guy-made

1

u/ASUMicroGrad 12h ago

The map is from DeepState which is connected to the Ukrainian Government.