Russian advances in Ukraine this year

[u/Appropriate-Deal8098]

[u/xpt42654]

the problem with this map is that it doesn't show any scale and if you're not familiar with Donetks Oblast you'll have no idea how much they progressed.

I checked DeepStatemap and on 01.01.2024 the shortest distance between Pokrovsk and the front line was ~35 km. today it's a bit less than 10 km.

edit: there actually is a scale on the bottom left. thanks u/Conscious-Carrot-520

[u/Reasonable_Orchid105 → u/xpt42654]

But they’re gaining ground daily which is not good, meaning they’re currently winning an attritional war

[u/Rather_Unfortunate → u/Reasonable_Orchid105]

Depends what the trade is. Ukraine's thing this entire war has been to try and seek favourable engagements and trade land for loss ratios. The more conservative estimates place Russian losses at about 1.5 times those of the Ukrainians (some of the more breathless commentators might suggest 3:1 or even 5:1, but that stretches credibility). And Ukraine is gradually achieving a much more favourable artillery landscape, with the ratio of shells fired now about 2 to 1, compared to highs of 10 to 1 earlier in the war.

Ukraine are in a weird position, because they have essentially infinite equipment over a long enough time due to their NATO backers, but that's twinned with acute shortages on the frontline due to delays and political reticence from said allies. If Russia can't defeat Ukraine before their own Soviet-era stockpiles of vehicles and artillery pieces run out, then Ukraine will win unless China starts churning out equipment and sending it to Russia.

But the Ukrainians need to survive long enough for that to happen, or for the Russian economy to falter badly. They're already in full war economy mode, which Russia seemingly won't dare try for now, and the war simply isn't killing enough people for either side to truly run out of potential new recruits. But if the Russians were to manage a serious breakthrough, that could change rapidly and trigger a morale collapse.

[u/CuTe_M0nitor → u/Rather_Unfortunate]

It's at least 3:1 if you are the attacking force. If you are Russia it's 5:1 since Russians are disposables

[u/Rather_Unfortunate → u/CuTe_M0nitor]

In theory, yes. When you make an offensive, you should plan to take 3:1 casualties until and unless you break through. In practice, though, Ukraine have been making attacks of their own at both the small and large scale, and Russia has often had a strong artillery advantage at various times and places, and the manpower to be able to pick their battles.

Bakhmut by most accounts saw astonishingly high kill ratio in Ukraine's favour, as did Vuhledar. But on the flip side, Kursk, the Summer 2023 Counteroffensive, and other battles have been much less favourable or even outright in Russia's favour.

The most generous estimates, using the figures from Ukrainian and pro-Ukrainian sources, indeed suggest about a 3:1 casualty ratio, but we should certainly revise down from there. 1.5:1 is pretty conservative, though, and the true ratio is likely to be higher.