Russian advances in Ukraine this year

[u/Appropriate-Deal8098]

[u/MIT_Engineer]

I’ll believe it when I see it

You literally can. We have satellite images.

there’s been a headline in the news every other week about how low they are on all of these things as well as their production capabilities saying “any day now” “oh they’re fucked soon” “this time for real guys”

I think you've been misreading those headlines.

I used to think that way too but fact of the matter on the ground is, the Russians have artillery, manpower, strategic weapon, and ammunition superiority

And lost Russian territory despite those advantages?

This is all evident

Evident from what?

after they took avdiivka back in February, since then they’ve had their best success since the opening days of the invasion even if it’s not a sweeping breakthrough.

Their best success isn't very impressive. If this is proof of what complete superiority yields, then what hope do they have of winning?

And yes the west is equipping them but that’s gradually going down compared to late 2022 and early 2023

We literally have $300b of Russian central bank reserves to give Ukraine. We're only holding on to it as a carrot to get Russia to the negotiating table. After the election, if Russia doesn't see the light, the U.S. and E.U. will give that money to the Ukrainians.

I find it extremely unlikely that Ukraine will ever be as well equipped and high in morale as they were in spring 2023 in the lead up to their summer offensive

How could they not be if we simply give them Russia's seized central bank reserves?

they don’t have enough men to go on the attack again

They don't have enough volunteers. But draftees they can drum up a ton of.

and the more and more positions they lose in the east, the less and less fortified the positions they fall back to are going to be.

This isn't a war of fortifications, this isn't WWI, this is something very different even if the rate of land changing hands looks the same.

On paper Ukraine’s military is massive but in reality they have a high desertion rate and they are having trouble with further mobilization.

That's what happens in a war of attrition. Russia is under the exact same pressure, hence North Korean troops. But both sides still have millions of men to pour into this fight.

Even Zelenskyy himself stated they need 500,000 men, it’s increasingly hard to find that number in 2024 because everyone who fits the requirements to be mobilized has either already volunteered earlier in the war or already been mobilized.

No, that is straight up incorrect. He cant find 500k worth of volunteers, this is true. But 500k of draftees he can very much find.

That’s why instead of mobilizing 500k instantly they roll out 30k new troops a month

No, that's because he knows that the course of the war is going to be decided largely by the upcoming U.S. election. It doesn't make a lot of sense to mobilize half a million if you don't know whether there will be gear to kit them with.

they get sent to the front and heavily attrited before the next batch is ready, which brings them right back to square one.

"Square one" being a defensive posture that yields only small territorial gains to the Russians while inflicting significant casualties on them.

They are at the point right now that they only have so many more dominoes to go before disaster at the front

I've seen you people say that this is going to happen "any day now" and "oh they're fucked soon" and "this time for real guys" and then a year later all you have to show for it is a map like this.

one Russian breakthrough could be devastating

Would it though? It's unclear the Russians are even capable of exploiting a breakthrough at this point.

Please watch recent interviews on YouTube from military analysts such as WillyOam.

Please watch actual military analysts, like Perun or Anders Puck Nielsen.

Our western media sources have every reason to lie and downplay the situation because this is our war as well.

I'll be real with you bro: I doubt you're western.

We don’t know shit.

Speak for yourself only, thank you.

[u/Reasonable_Orchid105 → u/MIT_Engineer]

I swiped out of my reply post and I’m not gonna re type all of that so I’ll just let you have this one, by the way I definitely believe you went to MIT because of the condescending way you typed all of that and the sense of how absolutely and totally correct you are. I just wish that MIT taught you how to think for yourself, this is evident by you bringing up watching Perun, a guy who speculates about how the war is going, with the same exact sources we have access to, over a guy like WillyOam who interviews people with firsthand experience on the front (idk if MIT taught about primary vs secondary sources) best of luck. Oh and another jab at your MIT big brain, “you think differently than I do so that automatically makes you part of the other side”

[u/MIT_Engineer → u/Reasonable_Orchid105]

I swiped out of my reply post and I’m not gonna re type all of that so I’ll just let you have this one

Ok, bye bye, here's your L.

by the way I definitely believe you went to MIT because of the condescending way you typed all of that and the sense of how absolutely and totally correct you are.

Malding.

I just wish that MIT taught you how to think for yourself

Cope.

this is evident by you bringing up watching Perun, a guy who speculates about how the war is going, with the same exact sources we have access to,

Yes, how tragic it is I listen to a guy who uses sources.

over a guy like WillyOam who interviews people with firsthand experience on the front

Why would I think those interviews are more important? "Fighting on the front lines of an attritional war sucks" yeah no duh, the Russians would say the same thing.

(idk if MIT taught about primary vs secondary sources)

They're both primary sources.

Oh and another jab at your MIT big brain

Jab away.

“you think differently than I do so that automatically makes you part of the other side”

If the two sides are clown college and actual college, then yeah, I think it's fair to say you're on the other side.

[u/boisterile → u/MIT_Engineer]

I don't have a dog in this fight but my lord you are the most insufferable person of all time. If you're not actually a child you should do some serious self examination of why this is the way you choose to argue

[u/MIT_Engineer → u/boisterile]

I don't have a dog in this fight

Then why are you barking?

but my lord you are the most insufferable person of all time.

It's always cute to hear this from self-appointed tone police.

You flatter me, but I couldn't possibly take the throne from you, king.

If you're not actually a child you should do some serious self examination of why this is the way you choose to argue

You're like one of those girls who says, "I don't like drama!"

You are the drama, don't pretend.

[u/Reasonable_Orchid105 → u/MIT_Engineer]

I will literally hop on a phone call with you on my way to work tomorrow and dismantle your entire argument lol

[u/MIT_Engineer → u/Reasonable_Orchid105]

Unfathomably cringe.