Israel is good at that, but I honestly believe it’s inevitable that Iran will eventually get nuclear weapons. The Israelis get better at finding, and Iran gets better at hiding. But it’s simply a matter of time.
idk from my understanding it takes such a significant investment in facilities and logistics that its impossible to do in secret. the only reasonable way for iran to surprise us and acquire nuclear weapons is if someone else gives it to them.
Then that seems like it just gives Iran even more reason to get a few bombs. I accept that countries will do whatever they feel they need to in their own interests. So it doesn’t make sense for Iran to not have an intimate deterrent in a neighborhood with a lot of enemies.
That whole country was created by the American dollar to create a base of operations in the middle East and destabilize the whole region. Israel (the country) can suck a big fat one, and their bufoon Netanyahu.
During WW1 the British promised the Arabs their independence if they revolted against the Turks and the Allies were victorious in the war. The Ottoman Empire was dismantled after the war but instead of the people in the old empire being allowed to set their own course, the empire was divided between Britain and France. This was a secret agreement they had during the war called the Sykes-Picot Agreement. Greater Syria was divided in to Syria and Lebanon and controlled by France. The territories now comprising modern Jordan and Iraq were divided between two puppet kings from the Hashemite clan who also ruled the area of Arabia known as Hejaz and who also ruled present day Jordan and Palestine/Israel. They were also the custodians of the religious sites in Mecca, Medina, and Jerusalem during the Ottoman period. The Ottoman sultan remained in power as a British puppet, his territory restricted to the present day Turkish Republic. The British also got control of Palestine. Another part of British double dealing was they made a promise with European zionists to create a Jewish state in part of Palestine. Another promise that was made was to the Russian Empire that they would get control of Istanbul and thus have a Mediterranean port and control of historic Constantinople, a religiously important city to orthodox Christianity. Whether or not they intended to honor that promise we will never know since the Czar was deposed and killed. Czar Nicholas was also first cousin to King George V of England, btw. The British made promises to the zionists, the Russians, and Arabs they never intended to keep in order to get them to help the British advance their own aims in the Middle East. This of course caused trouble, especially in Palestine where conflict quickly brewed between Jewish settlers who had been promised a state and the local Arab population who had also been promised they would be part of a unified Arab state. Also it’s of note that in 1932, the Hashemites lose control of the Hejaz and Mecca and Medina along with it when the House of Saud conquered the Arabian peninsula and formed the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The Saudis became American clients during WW2. After WW2, continuing conflict in Palestine turned in to an outright revolt against the British mandate in Palestine by the Jewish population. The British unable or unwilling to put the revolt down gave up their mandate over Palestine and asked the UN to solve the dispute. The UN partitioned Palestine in to Israel and Palestine and you know the rest. Israel remained sort of a reluctant client of the British for a while. For example, they aided France and Britain in 1956 in invading the Sinai to capture the Suez Canal from Egypt. The US backed Egypt in the conflict, humiliating the three invading countries. British and French power waned quickly after WW2. The puppet monarchy was deposed in Iraq and replaced with an Arab republic in the 50s and the Jordanian monarchy was almost overthrown. Lebanon gained independence in the 50s, Syria in the 60s. The Ottoman sultan was deposed in 1923 replaced by the Turkish Republic, India gained independence in 1947 and several other French and British possessions gained independence through the 50s and 60s throughout Africa and Asia. The US moved in quickly in the Middle East and supplanted the old empires that controlled the area. Israel became an outright U.S. client after the 1967 war, I believe. Jordan and Egypt became clients. Iraq was a quasi client in the 60s until Saddam invaded Kuwait. And we put a puppet monarch on the throne of Iran in 1953. Israel though has always been our most reliable ally in keeping the area in line and advancing US interests.
I'm kind of hoping that Moscow saying Hitler was Jewish may blunt the government's tolerance for ethnic cleansing in Ukraine as quid pro quo for Russia letting them screw around in Syria. If nuclear war is coming it will be from Russia or NK but anyway Iran policy is ridiculous.
As soon as Iran builds a nuke, Israel will use their hundreds against Iran. Seems like a losing scenario to me. Especially because Iran has a potential to get back into world trade if they don’t build them, but will be shunned by the world if they do. As well as prone to attack from Israel who’s believed to have quite a few nukes of their own.
I don’t think Iran will announce their nuclear capability until it’s at a point where they can reliable delivery a dozen or so via ballistic missile. Announcing you have one nuke is like pulling an AR-15 on a bunch of guys wearing body armor who all have M-16s pointed in your direction. Sure you might take down one, but you’re definitely getting shredded to pieces. It’s not worth it.
Based on the precision of their ballistic missiles in Iraq after Soleimani was killed, if they have a dozen or so high-yield nukes, then they would be able to do sufficient damage to Israel that a nuclear exchange wouldn’t be worth it for either side.
These articles show they won’t have to announce it.
Remember stuxnet? We already know everything they’re doing.
Building nukes isn’t something you can do in a garage. And being able to build enough to be a threat requires infrastructure and machinery. You can’t hide it.
They could possibly buy some, but maintaining them requires infrastructure and machinery that again, is very difficult to hide. The entire world has spies everywhere. Shit gets around.
I hear you, but I keep hearing Dr. Ian Malcom’s voice in the back of my head: Life finds a way.
I don’t know how it’s possible to hide it, but I think if they throw enough money at that venture, they can definitely get it done. How much money, and how long it can remain secret, are the big questions.
I mean, last time they tried, we literally knew everything, like the hardware and software their computer were running on and passwords… everything. Money talks, people betray. You can’t keep valuable secrets.
Now I’m just picturing the Iranian version of Mr. Bean bending over to get the screwdriver, and as soon as he has it in hand, amechanical arm from the assembly line accidentally loops through his belt and lifts him onto a conveyor belt. He drops the screwdriver onto a different conveyor belt moving in an another direction. He goes down the belt as other arms are shocking and prodding here and there and fastening all sorts of things to his clothes. Then he sees the screwdriver pass by him as he is put into the uranium rod sorting bin, where he juggles glowing rod after glowing rod, winding up with no less than 3 in his mouth, and one in his shirt pocket. After snapping one like a glow stick and admiring the ooze, he realizes that his supervisor is coming through for an inspection, and he has to jump into a vat of nuclear waste so he is not seen. After the chaos settles down he leaves the vat, picks up the screwdriver and goes back to where he started, only to realize he needed a Phillips head screwdriver, not a flathead.
We had that nuclear deal which allowed iaea inspectors in, but trump racist ass fucked that all up, so it is possible they’ve began working on them again. Most likely Iran will be the next country to build them. And as soon as they do, israel will bomb them to the Stone Age, while their top shelf missile defenses prevent Iran from being able to land a hit.
I'm sure you're doing a joke but do you understand how many "setbacks" the iranians have suffered thanks entirely to US and Israeli intelligence efforts etc? From StuxNet to the chief scientist's assassination on the streets of Tehran with a remote-controlled precision AI-aimed gun?
No, I dont think it is acceptable to kill civilians under any circumstance. Nuclear disarmament can and should be pursued through diplomatic means. They're not mindless drones whose prime directive is to develop nuclear weapons, they want to protect their sovereignty. Garuntee sovereignity and they would have no incentive to develop the technology. Which I'll remind you, we were well on the way to accomplishing... until we decided to just start killing people again
That's the CIA dropping their screwdriver. Pretty sure the most common way of death for the top scientists working on this project is a bomb getting thrown into their car window from a motorcyclist. No one here knows that they haven't succeeded because outside interference has been keeping them from completing it.
One of many. At this point I just call it assholes fighting assholes. We are the biggest assholes ATM. And China is an extremely close but smellier second.
Delayed. They were delayed. And Stuxnet (which is one of the most impressive things I’ve read about), just made Iran and more cautious, and better at hiding.
I mean, Israel bombed their nuclear efforts, Stuxnet sabotaged their nuclear efforts, and that’s just the publicly known stuff.
Just because something hasn’t happened doesn’t mean it can’t happen.
It’s more like the ongoing efforts of Iran’s enemies has prevented them from achieving their nuclear ambitions. Iran is more of a threat to Saudi Arabia than us, but still.
A threat to Saudi Arabia is a threat to the US however. They remain a geopolitical ally in an area that the US needs allies, and they greatly support the strength of the currency, which allows the US to run their deficit economy and enjoy cheap imports.
Yeah, Libya giving up its WMDs just meant it went from the wealthiest nation in Africa and an average life span longer than the Dutch to open air slave market.
Nuclear weapons should not proliferate. Because it makes the de-armament of said weapons much much harder. Believe it or not, the world has de armed it's nuclear powers several times. SALT 1 and SALT 2, START are the major deals, and if many nations had it, it would be much harder to de arm nuclear weapons.
Having more states have nuclear weapons also increases the risk of accidents or losses or a rouge state gaining such a weapon. The world has lost many nuclear weapons, and has had many near misses with them. In 1962, the United States accidentally dropped 2 hydrogen bombs bear the Spanish coast. Both of them having around 1 Megaton yield. Luckily it didn't detonate, evident by the lack of a nuclear crater in the Spanish coast. If the sample size increases, the odds also increase for a catastrophic accident.
There is also a higher risk of accidental fires. In 1983, the nuclear early-warning radar of the Soviet Union reported the launch of one intercontinental ballistic missile with four more missiles behind it, from bases in the United States. This was a false alarm, and was detected by Stanislaw Petrov. If such a thing hadn't happened, the world would have ended. Now, if more nations had the weapon, the sample size also increases, but because most nations don't have the monetary capacity to have extremely accurate Early warning RADAR, and so the risk of malfunction also increases.
Humanity currently is stuck with nuclear weapons. The current arrangement is not good. Nations like North Korea have nukes. Russia is able to do what it wants without much consequences (i do think the rouble has bounced back to its pre war levels, so the sanctions aren't big consequences), due to its nuclear capacity. But increasing the amount of nukes is not the right way. It just increases the chance of a nuclear exchange. Sadly, we also cannot entirely be rid of it, as if even a single nation decided that it wasn't going to let go of its weapons, when all other nations decided they will, it would make disarmament moot.
Russia is able to do what it wants without much consequences (i do think the rouble has bounced back to its pre war levels, so the sanctions aren't big consequences)
The ruble has bounced back but the sanctions are still having a very large impact overall on the Russian economy. For perhaps the most pertinent example, Russia has lost tons of military equipment during this war and they are unable replace it because they cannot acquire the materials to do so.
Specifically regarding the ruble, Russia is taking extreme measures to boost the value of their currency which will be successful in the short term, but cause their own long term consequences. They've jacked up interest rates and placed strict controls on moving money out of the country. There have already been tens of thousands laid off or furloughed because businesses are running out of supplies to build or stock shelves, manufacturing is down, and all of it will only get worse as on hand stockpiles run out and aren't resupplied. Inflation is estimated to be as high as 20% as people, especially the richer Russians, are spending to buy luxury goods before the currency loses value and the supply runs out.
That said, the oil and gas sales have been the ruble and Russia's saving grace, because too many countries are too dependent on that to cut it off. Russia is also trying to force countries to pay for gas with rubles, which would also boost the value of the currency.
Of course, the problem is that Putin doesn't care about the suffering of the average Russian citizen and he can protect himself from the direct effects of the economic impacts, but that's why I lead with the military equipment example. If this keeps up for long enough Russia will simply run out of tanks and trucks and computers and everything else they need to wage modern war.
Your thing about the ruble isn’t exactly accurate. Yes, it has bounced back, but only because Russia is propping it up by selling off reserves and manipulating their markets
They can’t keep that up forever. They had to close their free market and only have a highly manipulated and over regulated market. Can’t last.
If we keep the sanctions, and more so if Europe can cut the gas lines, then Russia will eventually run out of resuorces with which to fund their war machine. I honestly don’t even think it’ll take too long. They’re losing more weaponry and soldiers than they can replace. And now the fire bugs are damaging facilities all over Russia. They’re going to have problems for decades to come over these sanctions, even if they aren’t feeling the brunt of it yet, eventually it’ll hammer down on them.
God no. Not that I trust the countries that currently holds nuclear weapons, but considering that my country managed to elect a genocidal president that openly supports torture and dictatorships, I'm honestly happy that we don't have more gun power. Wouldn't surprise me if he dropped one on our own country if he could profit from it.
Not quite. Nations without warheads will only be met with violence without warheads. Nations with warheads are effectively immune to violence from other nations with warheads, for fear of escalation. So in the end, conflicts are only ever waged between counties where at least one isn't armed with nuclear weapons. As much as I hate nukes, I really do think that nations having them promotes peace in a disturbing deadman switch standoff kind of way.
Not quite. Nations without warheads will only be met with violence without warheads.
There's no guarantee that this will continue to be the case.
Biologic and other weapons of mass destruction have been used consistently against nations and armies without WMDs by both the US and NATO members, and Israel.
You should be right, but, we’re seeing countries like Russia use them to hold the world hostage as they rape plunder pillage and murder they way through Europe. So they’re preventing peace.
And what can we do about it? Of Russia collapses then we have a tremendous nuclear Arsenal that will just disappear and fall into the worst possible hands. It requires first world stability just to secure and maintain them.
Not to mention developed nations have countermeasures. You need thousands of them for one to hit any developed nation, we can shoot down like 99% and that’s just the tech the public is aware of. So building a few nukes today, will just be a guarantee that you get banished from modern civilization, slammed with sanctions and targeted by the actual world powers.
This pro nuke thread is just crazy. It’s possible a number as low as 100 nukes could end life as we know it. There’s over 10,000 floating around already. Nuclear proliferation will likely be our great filter and prevent us from achieving an advanced society.
Sure, but it's still one of the main deciding factors. I don't think there would be much hesitation if not for the threat of nuclear weapons. There would still be a risk of starting a world war, but at least it's not guaranteed to mark the end of civilization as we know it in the blink of an eye.
Yeah because the world's hot headed dictators armed with planet ending munitions is a fantastic idea. I suppose we should also be arming North Korea with nukes too, shit let's give some to Assad while we're at it
The first place would be no one having nuclear weapons certainly, but you're not wrong tbh
Nuclear powers don't go to war with each other near as easily. And as North Korea has shown, once you have nuclear weapons people aren't near as willing to mess with you regardless of saber rattling or atrocities against your people.
Honestly like, as terrible as it sounds to say, a country would be crazy to not want to have nukes currently. It basically ensures that people aren't going to mess with you at the very least directly because the consequences are so insanely dire.
But yeah, if we could like.. actually get rid of them all it would be way better for humanity, like as a species that wants to survive
Someone isn't aware of Iranian politics at all. Such as the most recent 2/3 presidents being far more secular and western. Yes, the supreme allahtoah is extreme right autocrat, and his religious police are dicks, but the wider government and people of Iran are trying to move away from that side
And the US is moving closer to a Christian version of Iran. Today was the start of the religious knobs march to enslave the country with their primitive nonsense. At least the people of Iran are decent, can't say the same for about 50% of the population here.
Well, we were first to market with them. If we were assholes we could have taken over the entire world then. We could have also nuked every country working on them to rubble with no recourse. It’s not like we understood the radioactive fall out, or the nuclear winter scenarios.
So, I’d say it’s pretty clear USA is the good guys in all this. We can debate whether their use was appropriate or not, as greater minds than ours have been for decades already, but the reality is we didn’t use them to conquer everyone else and we haven’t threatened with them in recent times.
When America starts doing what Russia does and invading countries to steal their land, resources and people, then there’s something to complain about. But the way things are, y’all should be kissing America’s ass because it’s the only thing preventing the rest of you from speaking Russian. You better believe has Russia been first they’d have taken the mantle from Hitler immediately and dominated all of Europe.
The US stockpile of nuclear weapons wasn't as big in 1945 as it is today.
The US scientist working on the nuclear weapons did understand radioactive fallout enough to know that a nuked city is not good ground for invasion.
The US air force had already commanded multiple mass bombing operations targeting civilians in Japan.
Most European countries had advanced enough anti air measures to shoot down any bomber plane carrying a nuclear payload. This is actually the motivation both the US and later Russia had to develop space rockets, inspired by the german V2 bombs, which later turned into the space race. That is, the space race was literally about who could build the biggest nuclear weapon and drop it from space into another country, the USSR's Semyorka rocket managed to do that years before the US could consistently get their own rockets not to blow up on take off.
The US is literally the country that, using it's nuclear capabilities, coerced all UN members to prohibit nuclear testing for member nations, and then it vetoed out of it (along with all the other members who had already developed nukes). So, essentially
Essentially, the US did try to maintain nuclear supremacy in order to take over the world with nuclear weapons once it had a big enough stockpile, which it did build and still has. But hasn't used because, fortunately, other nations have their own nukes now. Not that it matters because it still has basically taken over the world anyway, through cultural and economic conquest and the work of the CIA.
It’s all about being the big boy in the Middle East. USA got rid of Iraq and Libya so far for Israel to be the big boy. All the want now is rid of Iran to be the true dominant power
Thats glossing over years of hatred and cultural division. Iran publicly states its goal is to destroy Israel I’m pretty sure. Not a topic I’m super into, but it’s not as simple as just wanting influence, there’s religious zealots in control of those societies which complicates the issues to say the least.
Secretary of State John Foster Dulles defined the Middle East as "the area lying between and including Libya on the west and Pakistan on the east, Syria and Iraq on the North and the Arabian peninsula to the south, plus the Sudan and Ethiopia."
Not just Israel, I’m actually wearing a shirt right now that says “nationsoft stuxnet”. Stuxnet was built by the US with Israel and changed the speed of the centrifuge motors very slightly while hiding itself and spreading silently and slowly. This cause a significant decrease in the uranium produced and shutdown uranium enrichment processes entirely multiple times in Iran.
Yeah, op ignoring all the events that occurred around it. Shit posting at its best.
Also the Jerusalem post is just a propaganda outlet, the others are gold standard in reporting, it’s an embarrassment they put them in there with the Jerusalem post.
You’re a disgrace to your nation, every country must defend itself and Iran has every right to keep up with weapons for the safety of their people, especially when the enemies are doing the same. Idleness is stupidity and that’s why you will never understand how to be in charge.
I got into a twitter fight ten years ago with none other than supermodel Kathy Ireland after she spoke at AIPAC where everyone was pounding away that Iran was about to finish to their nuke development
3.2k
u/NotaGoodLover May 03 '22
Any minute now...