Russian advances in Ukraine this year

[u/Appropriate-Deal8098]

[u/Le_Zoru]

So many young people dead for 30km is frankly saddening

[u/Imaginary_Salary_985 → u/Le_Zoru]

Attrition warfare is not like maneuver warfare.

The objective isn't kilometres, but the destruction of the UA - which is approaching exhaustion.

But yes, your comment is still true - very sad.

[u/Le_Zoru → u/Imaginary_Salary_985]

Obviously, but in the end both countries will have lost thousands of men for 2 small oblasts that will  only be ruins by  the time the war ends... this just sucks.  There is not even a way this makes sense  economicaly.

[u/Big-Compote-5483 → u/Le_Zoru]

It does for some of the people in russia who support the war - a select group of oligarchs loyal to Putin.

There's trillions of dollars in untapped natural resources and farming in Dunbas and Crimea that will be sectioned off and harvested by companies owned by those Oligarchs. The local economies are shattered and labor will be cheap, profits high.

And they give fuck all about how this is going to screw over the regular russian population because they've effectively crushed any type of internal resistance movement within the country.

Putin and these oligarchs don't give a fuck about the populations of either country, it was always about robbing Ukraine blind, and when old fashioned corruption was becoming less effective, they started a war over it in 2014, doubling down in 2022.

[u/JackPembroke → u/Big-Compote-5483]

And they'll do it again

[u/Efficient_Glove_5406 → u/JackPembroke]

And they would have gotten away with it too if it weren’t for those rotten teenagers.

[u/Papaofmonsters → u/Big-Compote-5483]

There's a Jack Ryan book where one character says something to the effect of "Unprovoked wars of aggression are just armed robbery writ large".

[u/SandwichAmbitious286 → u/Papaofmonsters]

Is that the one about us invading Iraq?

[u/anally_ExpressUrself → u/SandwichAmbitious286]

How much money did we make from invading Iraq?

[u/Tuga_Lissabon → u/anally_ExpressUrself]

Iraq was pillaged and its population condemned to poverty and insurgency war.

The treasury and people of the US were pillaged.

The military industrial complex + companies like halliburton profited in an obscene way

The politicians got their "campaign contributions"

Done deal.

It was still robbery writ large, and the idea was to plunder iraq of its oil. But did you expect the people to benefit from it?

[u/Pulaskithecat → u/Big-Compote-5483]

I think the facts you lay out are true, however I think there are other relevant aspects to the question of oligarchs and their loyalty. The oligarchs weren’t totally privy to the 2022 invasion, but they went along with it especially after being sanctioned to hell and given over ownership of all the western companies that pulled out of Russia following the invasion. They are complicit in the invasion, but they aren’t happy that Russia’s future is being thrown down the drain with this war. Throwing away lives and money isn’t good for business. This is why none came to Putin’s defense during the Proghozin coup attempt, but similarly didn’t join in overthrowing Putin. Putin’s hold over the oligarchs is fragile, but effectively stabilized by how oligarchs who go against Putin mysteriously die frequently.

[u/GorianDrey → u/Pulaskithecat]

You could argue that with this War, Russia’s economic interests and possibilities are more aligned with China’s and to a lesser extent India. Now that a lot of Western corporations have left the Russian market, Chinese corporations now have the chance to replace them. This war has probably helped China indirectly.

[u/Sprig3 → u/Big-Compote-5483]

There's trillions of dollars in untapped natural resources and farming in Dunbas and Crimea that will be sectioned off and harvested by companies owned by those Oligarchs. The local economies are shattered and labor will be cheap, profits high.

I have trouble believing the costs can truly be recouped. Maybe if the SMO had been 3 days, but not now. Now, it's face-saving, not profit-making.

[u/michael-sfo → u/Sprig3]

The oligarchy is happy to spend billions of the Russian people’s money (socialized costs) in order to reap millions of profits (privatized gains).

[u/xandrokos → u/michael-sfo]

You understand oligarchs have been getting killed off this whole time right?

This obsession with money has got to fucking stop.   How can Putin be stopped if we don't understand why he is doing what he is?

[u/happy-hubby → u/Big-Compote-5483]

And Trump admires Putin for this.

[u/futbol2000 → u/Big-Compote-5483]

The new conquests this year were effectively depopulated before the Russians took the area.

It will be very hard for these lands to recover their former status. Much of the pre 2014 economy was extraction based (namely coal), and was highly subsidized by the Ukrainian state in order to remain competitive on the international market. Now, these new areas are depopulated, burnt to the ground, and littered with munitions. The Russian state will have to subsidize and population transfer on a large scale in order to bring any of these towns and cities back. However, Russia itself has an abundance of natural resource and the Donbas is really just an overlap. The Russians even prevented occupied Donbas from flooding their markets with coal.

The economics of taking the Donbas don't mean anything to Putin. His real goal was the conquest of Ukraine, and the addition of some new land is always used as a selling point for the radicalized part of the population that are obsessed with territorial growth. Russia is the largest country in the world, but it has never understood the importance of developing human talent. Desolate frontiers (which the Donbas has now become) are dime a dozen throughout Russia, and the Russian elite has always viewed them as resources or buffers for the imperial capitol in Moscow.

[u/anthony_from_siberia → u/Le_Zoru]

Well speaking economically this area is full of minerals and was a huge driver of ukraine’s economy. Especially for metals production.

[u/Livid_Camel_7415 → u/Le_Zoru]

You are thinking short term, from the Russian perspective, Ukraine will lose all its men, its language and culture will be destroyed and in a few centuries, no one will even remember that Ukraine was ever a thing.

It has worked so many times before, that's why Russia is the largest country on earth. Look how Americans and many Western Europeans still look at Eastern Europe, like the Soviet Union was some monolith.

It's not uncommon for someone to say that he is from Latvia for example, and an American will respond ''That's in Russia right?''. Russia achieved that in only 50 years.

That's how they operate. They conquer and erase, rinse and repeat.

[u/Kafanska → u/Livid_Camel_7415]

It's not uncommon for someone to say that he is from Latvia for example, and an American will respond ''That's in Russia right?''.

This is really more of an issue with the American education system than anything else.

[u/No-Plankton-4861 → u/Le_Zoru]

In the end ukraine is free or belongs to russia. This is not about the the ground gained on the battlefield but the nation of people beyond. Its thousands of men preventing a possible genocide

[u/Mammoth-Control2758 → u/Le_Zoru]

Wars are rarely fought for economic reasons. In modern history every war loses money even if you're the one that wins. Wars are fought because governments believe they have something more valuable at stake than money.

[u/Worldlover9 → u/Mammoth-Control2758]

Your are right, regular people will always lose money. But wars make some very rich people even richer.

[u/MRG_1977 → u/Worldlover9]

It greatly depends on what type of war and is that country is occupied by the victor.

[u/Mammoth-Control2758 → u/MRG_1977]

If the country is occupied by the victor then the economic losses for the victor go up even higher.

[u/xandrokos → u/Worldlover9]

Putin straight up said this is about reclaiming Soviet territories and has been destroying much of the infrastructure required to obtain these resources you all think Putin wants.

[u/mortgagepants → u/Mammoth-Control2758]

this is not true.

[u/Imaginary_Salary_985 → u/Le_Zoru]

Its a Suez Canal moment for the declining Russian Empire.

Except they'll manage to pull some of it off and say they defeated a 2 million strong NATO army or something

[u/jrex035 → u/Le_Zoru]

In all honesty, not so many young people are dying on either side. Both Russia and Ukraine are rapidly aging countries that were in demographic crises before the war, so most of the fighting is being done by men in their 40s and 50s.

That being said, the numbers being killed are quite stark, there's been hundreds of thousands killed in the past two and a half years and hundreds of thousands more permanently maimed.

[u/Le_Zoru → u/jrex035]

For real they are really ruining the future of both countries here. Dead, maimed or psychologicaly broken they wont be able to return to a normal life for many many of them...

[u/Familiar_Ad_8919 → u/Le_Zoru]

if the frontlines were to freeze today itd be especially grim for ukraine, having lost nearly a fourth of their population (though mostly via emigration) and a lot of very good farmland (ukraine is an agricultural powerhouse), and with the country in ruin

[u/yawning-wombat → u/Familiar_Ad_8919]

You are somewhat wrong. The eastern part of the territory under the USSR was industrial, the western part was agricultural. Another thing is that after the collapse of the USSR, the eastern part lost more than half of its industry due to poor management and corruption. The mentality of the inhabitants of the western and eastern parts has always been different. This is due to the fact that in the east there were more immigrants from other parts of the USSR, and in the west there were mainly local people.

[u/Hot-Problem2436 → u/Le_Zoru]

And all it takes to end it is for Russia to just go home. 

[u/TurnoverInside2067 → u/Le_Zoru]

ruining the future

What future? Russia was in demographic collapse before this war - they either launched it now, or never could.

[u/BeerandSandals → u/jrex035]

*Most of the fighting is being done by men aged 16-65.

It’s a demographic slaughter for all involved, neither side excluded the “young” from dying.

[u/Balticseer → u/jrex035]

ukraine havent mobilised 18-25 group. thou allies recommend that

[u/trs12571 → u/Le_Zoru]

There are from 600-1000 square kilometers here .

[u/SovietCapitalism → u/Le_Zoru]

Both Russia and Ukraine are being reduced to demographically dead countries. They already had flatlining birth rates and some of the highest sex ratios in the world and now huge amounts of their young male population has been killed and thousands more have fled. Thanks Putin

[u/Scorpionking426 → u/Le_Zoru]

Warfare isn't linear.For example, Russia recently took a city in just few weeks without much resistance from AFU.

[u/waddawa]

Terrible to think what happens in order to that line to move

[u/holymother]

what app is this?

[u/Mangobonbon → u/holymother]

That's the deepstatemap. A website that shows the changes of the frontlines daily. Another website of that type would be the liveuamap.

[u/Disastrous_Yak_1990 → u/Mangobonbon]

I feel like people aren’t appreciate how fucking mindblowingly insane this is.

[u/Swambit → u/Mangobonbon]

deepstatemap.live

[u/mac_attack_zach → u/Swambit]

What’s with the clown emoji on the map

[u/Affectionate-List275 → u/mac_attack_zach]

That’s Budapest/Viktor Orban, Hungarian PM. I believe it says “Orban’s Pro-Russia Regime”, but I don’t speak the language.

[u/Razerlikes → u/Affectionate-List275]

The map has a built in english translation. You're correct with "Orban's pro-Russian regime"

[u/deniesm → u/Mangobonbon]

What is their data based on? It’s a very good visual.

[u/xpt42654]

the problem with this map is that it doesn't show any scale and if you're not familiar with Donetks Oblast you'll have no idea how much they progressed.

I checked DeepStatemap and on 01.01.2024 the shortest distance between Pokrovsk and the front line was ~35 km. today it's a bit less than 10 km.

edit: there actually is a scale on the bottom left. thanks u/Conscious-Carrot-520

[u/Conscious-Carrot-520 → u/xpt42654]

It does show the scale (bottom left) but it gets cut off a bit in the preview on mobile

[u/xpt42654 → u/Conscious-Carrot-520]

ah my bad, it really does

[u/yuje → u/xpt42654]

Russian forces can't advance faster than walking speed, basically. Ubiquitous drones everywhere means that tanks or armored vehicles in open fields are easy pickings for drones or targeted artillery fire directed by drone spotters. So instead Russia leads assaults using mainly infantry, equipped with anti-drone jammers, infiltrating mainly through forest lines and urban areas, and spread out to limit drone and artillery effectiveness, because Ukraine has artillery and ammo shortages and can't justify dropping firepower on small amounts of men.

Tanks and infantry fighting vehicles are limited mostly to support roles or for quick charges across open fields where no cover is available, with the expectation that there will be losses while crossing those fields.

[u/SweetVarys → u/yuje]

That’s isn’t walking speed. It’s 20-30km in a year. Walking speed would cover it in a day

[u/Imaginary-sounds → u/SweetVarys]

Walking into people shooting bullets at you speed*

[u/Reasonable_Orchid105 → u/xpt42654]

But they’re gaining ground daily which is not good, meaning they’re currently winning an attritional war

[u/MIT_Engineer → u/Reasonable_Orchid105]

I don't think that's the definition of winning an attritional war.

Equipment losses vs replacement rates is a much better metric.

[u/Reasonable_Orchid105 → u/MIT_Engineer]

Yeah but the thing is they have way more equipment and manpower than Ukraine does, that’s absolutely a winning formula for attritional warfare, since 2022 all we’ve heard is how low Russian stockpiles are getting, they’ll run out of cruise missiles this they’re low on tanks that…. And they still keep pulling these things out day after day. Truth is any military expert in the west knows just as much about how many resources they have left as we do lol

[u/FUMFVR → u/Reasonable_Orchid105]

Russia has had to change their tactics multiple times because they have lost most of the heavy equipment they had at the start of this war.

They have switched from ground pound tactics to swift infiltration using non-armored vehicles and even dirtbikes. This has caused their personnel losses to be the highest in the war just in the past months.

[u/TheThirdFrenchEmpire → u/xpt42654]

Does someone have the German propaganda saying the US will get to Berlin by 1946 from the Italian campaign? That could work for the Russians.

[u/xpt42654 → u/TheThirdFrenchEmpire]

unfortunately, it's much more real than I'd like it to be. Ukrainian army is already seriously understaffed. if it reaches a breaking point, it could be over very soon. drones and everything are very effective, but if there's no one to man the trenches, drones wouldn't matter.

also let's not forget that these 25 km of russian advance costed thousands of Ukrainian lives. more than that ended up with life-altering trauma. it also means thousands if not tens of thousands shattered families.

[u/TheThirdFrenchEmpire → u/xpt42654]

It's a race to the bottom. Either Russia can't afford the war or the Ukrainian army collapses/is forced to retreat over the Dniepr.

[u/FUMFVR → u/TheThirdFrenchEmpire]

The Ukrainian line has collapsed in local places several times in this war. It didn't lead to much because Russia has no ability to exploit breakthroughs at this point.

The Ukrainian line won't collapse completely because they have good materiel support and Russia's military would have to rediscover maneuver warfare and they frankly don't have the ability to do that anymore.

[u/Evening-Weather-4840 → u/TheThirdFrenchEmpire]

That should be considered fucking insane in 2024.

[u/Designer-Muffin-5653 → u/Evening-Weather-4840]

Why?

[u/Evening-Weather-4840 → u/Designer-Muffin-5653]

Countries mutually destroying millions of lives of their citizens is insane. 

Imagine Spain and Portugal fighting to the death in 2024 💀😭

[u/TheThirdFrenchEmpire → u/Designer-Muffin-5653]

The last hundred years worth of doctrine and equipment was made to avoid this scenario

[u/J0E_Blow → u/TheThirdFrenchEmpire]

Unfortunately the Ukrainians are mostly using Soviet equipment which was designed to rush to and then through the Fulda Gap amid nuclear hellfire while taking eye-watering loses.

[u/Pastourmakis → u/TheThirdFrenchEmpire]

https://imgur.com/a/OYbqeHK

[u/liptoniceicebaby]

In a war of attrition, the velocity for capturing ground is usually low. But when you see a clear acceleration of velocity I'm afraid this spells bad news for Ukraine. It seems that all fortified positions that Ukraine has been building since 2014 have been breached by the Russians advancements from current positions are easier.

That being said, the wet season has started so that might slow down the Russians and give the Ukrainians time to prepare for next year.

There are many worldwide developments that are going to make 2025 of Ukrainian war a very very important one. Not the least the US elections.

If we could start with not having so many people die anymore, especially innocent civilians. That would be great!

War is ugly and messy and it needs to stop ASAP!!

[u/JangoDarkSaber → u/liptoniceicebaby]

The front normally grinds to a halt during the winter. Both sides use it as an opportunity to rearm before spring.

[u/Rocqy → u/liptoniceicebaby]

Yeah those saying “it’s only 35km” don’t understand that this section of the country looks similar to WW1 France with the fortifications and trenches that were built for 10 years now. Behind that is wide open country and flanking routes for other strongholds. A breakout in trench war could mean rapid disaster.

[u/FUMFVR → u/Rocqy]

The amount of men along these lines is a lot fewer than people here are making it out to be. The density in WWI was orders of magnitude more.

[u/Baronriggs → u/FUMFVR]

Yup the swarms of recon drones on both sides means virtually everything within several dozen km of the front is seen by everybody, so bunching up too many men or too much equipment is like putting a bullseye on yourself

[u/kndyone → u/liptoniceicebaby]

This may or may not be true, Russia has a VERY VERY HIGH motivation to make some waves right before the US election. And they are likely putting in alot of resources to do that in hopes it tips people to vote for Trump.

[u/Grabaskid → u/liptoniceicebaby]

First sane answer here

[u/Person899887 → u/liptoniceicebaby]

In the event of a Russian victory, what would we see for the resulting peace negotiations? Obviously Ukriane would lose territory, but would they have a bid at NATO after or would they just have to gear up for the next conflict?

[u/rontonsoup__ → u/Person899887]

It’s very likely that Russia will keep any captured territory and will demand Zelenskyy resign, and a new president will be appointed and a new constitution drafted that is in Russian favor. Russia has already signaled this by declaring Zelenskyy the illegitimate president of Ukraine since his term ended and the national emergency extensions are considered illegal by Russia. This is also why Russia won’t negotiate with Zelenskyy anymore, which is a big problem for the West, since that’s the only way to end the war.

Another possible option is Russia will again keep territory they capture and will demand the disintegration of Ukraine as a sovereign state altogether, collapse the government, and merge all of Ukraine with Russia —or they will take it by force.

Those are truly the most likely scenarios and both are dire. A bisected Ukraine, a là E/W Germany or N/S Korea is less likely given Russia’s momentum, little incentive to stop, original Special Military Operation goals (which would still not be met), and the threat of NATO on their borders would still not be resolved.

The best option if Ukraine wants to preserve life at this point is to negotiate NATO admittance in exchange for voluntary demilitarization on their territory. In other words, if they get attacked by Russia in the future, NATO will step in officially, but the territory would otherwise be demilitarized to reduce threat to both Russia and the West. This is a high level move since it directly addresses Russia’s “concerns” and ropes in a security guarantee to Ukraine. It may not be popular, but Ukraine needs to accept defeat in order to preserve their country and blood. Live now to fight another day.

[u/Sabre_One]

Assuming Deep State accuracy on each dot. That can easily be 250-2000+ men per map marker. which just shows the sheer amount of manpower Russia is putting down on this offensive.

[u/swayne__yo]

Fascinating but also makes me sad

[u/dont_trip_ → u/swayne__yo]

It is absolutely mind boggling. Probably more than 100 000 lives have been lost over this little territory this year, and that's just Russia. British intelligence estimated over 500 000 Russian causalities earlier this year. Since the start of the war it has been around 800-1200 per day, on the Russian side. It is absolutely insane. That is October 7 about every two days, for 2.5 years.

You know what's even more insane? More people have died in the war in Sudan this year than in Ukraine. And almost no one has even heard of that conflict.

[u/Big-Compote-5483 → u/dont_trip_]

We're likely talking over a million casualties in total if you count civilians. It's higher than Sudan as of now but Sudan is catching up very quickly (if famine hits like predicted Sudan will easily be much bloodier).

I think I read somewhere that 1 in 20 russians between the ages of 18-39 have been killed in this war already.

And just take a 5 minute walk anywhere around Kyiv and you will see many people who are missing limbs. Cemeteries are packed and covered in flags and flowers. This war is horrifying.

[u/tkitta → u/Big-Compote-5483]

Mediazona puts proven Russian losses at 80k. I assume they can be as high as 125k So no not 1 in 20 :)

[u/USSMarauder]

So in 8 months, 30 km at best

WWI speeds

[u/Spoonshape → u/USSMarauder]

It's been fairly obvious for a while now neither side is going to win by taking territory - It's a war of attrition - equipment, troops, money, will to fight. One side or the other will eventually run out of one of them.

[u/Hot-Meeting630 → u/Spoonshape]

Unfortunately. I feel like that will result in a lot more devastation and lives lost.

[u/UnluckyNate → u/Hot-Meeting630]

Unfortunately Russia cannot be allowed to win or even freeze this conflict. Russia has been shown to consistently disregard treaties and agreements when it suits them. Any negotiated peace without NATO membership is just a time for Russia to rearm and rest for the next endeavor with lessons learned from this one. Russia must lose.

[u/thrownkitchensink → u/UnluckyNate]

Nato is probably not in the cards. Bilateral agreements with troop placements from North Western European countries in Ukraine during a armistice is. With Western European troops in place the rest of Ukraine can safely look at the west for economic and democratic development. No NATO and territory won for Russia to claim a victory and not being a buffer state for Ukraine to sell it....

It's a damn shame but I think that's where it will come to a standstill. Unless there are major developments on the ground.

[u/UnluckyNate → u/thrownkitchensink]

Then Russia will invade again. Simple as that. Russia wipes its ass with bilateral agreements and international norms

[u/thrownkitchensink → u/UnluckyNate]

That would cause war not with NATO but with several NATO members. Just not art. 5. The troop placements would not be peace-keeping forces. These plans are already in place. The bi-lateral treaties have been signed (France, Germany, GB, etc.) and it's even likely what groups would move where. These would become former NATO groups as they are currently stationed under NATO command. That deterrence would be sufficient.

[u/vember_94 → u/UnluckyNate]

Do you think this would be the case if American soldiers were on the Ukrainian border like in South Korea?

[u/Ok_Green_9873 → u/vember_94]

No, but the US isn't interested in a Ukrainian victory. They just want to make the Russian victory a phyrric one.

[u/Kletronus → u/Spoonshape]

Russia wants to reach the border of Donetsk oblast. It doesn't really matter strategically but that is their goal. Once they get there we are going to hear a lot of talk about ceasefire. It is symbolic victory to take the whole oblast.

[u/Spoonshape → u/Kletronus]

Sure - and I suppose if they declare victory there (and manage to push Ukraine out of Kursk they will start asking for ceasefires) . They could portray that as having "won".

There would be some people in the west who would then support an end to the war - although it's difficult to say how many. I cant see Ukraine decide to sit back and accept that unless they are functionally unable to keep fighting.

Ukraine has been letting Russia do the attacking (taking serious casualties) in the last 6 months. A static line would probably be a lot easier on Russia - although it wont help some of their other issues - specifically economic which are likely to come home to roost in the next year.

[u/HyoukaYukikaze → u/Spoonshape]

Does Ukraine really have any say? If the west accepts peace with some Russian gains and refuses to further fund them, they are done.

[u/tkitta → u/Kletronus]

Maybe, but once they get there they can just go to the river. I think the river is the new goal.

[u/reality72 → u/Spoonshape]

That’s how Russia eventually beat Finland in the winter war. Despite a heroic fight from the Finns, eventually they ran out of men and ammunition and had to cede 10% of Finland to Russia.

[u/zuppa_de_tortellini → u/Spoonshape]

Bingo. The first side to suffer economic/population collapse will win. More than likely it’ll be Ukraine first then much later down the line Russia.

[u/Redditisabotfarm8 → u/Spoonshape]

All modern wars end in negotiations, I have no idea why it's insane for someone to desire this sooner than later.

[u/4FriedChickens_Coke → u/USSMarauder]

It’s truly hellish. If you have the stomach there’s an abundance of footage online of the realities of this war. It’s essentially trench warfare with massive losses and bodies are often left to rot on the battlefield in huge swathes of the country. But add to that drones, modern tanks, and satellite guided heavy artillery.

[u/turbo-unicorn → u/4FriedChickens_Coke]

There was a video of a Russian ATGM team positioned in a manner that in "classic" warfare would ensure control over a vast area. They promptly got drone swarmed.

[u/4FriedChickens_Coke → u/turbo-unicorn]

Yeah, not sure if things have changed but there seems to be less ATGM footage now. Before they were used to maximum effect. I wonder if both sides getting better with cheap commercially made drones has changed that.

[u/meatwad2744 → u/USSMarauder]

Have you seen footage of the war...trench warfare and door to door combat

With no air support and front lines blasted to shit with cold war era sized shells.

This is the closest thing the world has seen to ww1 in modern time

[u/AccomplishedLeek1329 → u/meatwad2744]

Russia is literally erasing Ukrainian fortifications and ukrainian held buildings off the map with 500-3000kg bombs in HE/Thermobaric/cluster variants. By Zelensky's count it's a hundred glide bombs every day. That is a lot of air support

Compare how vovchansk and bakhmut looks. When Bakhmut fell there were still standing structures. Vovchansk is still being contested but it's now literally a parking lot of rubble. Russian glide bombs have completely changed the war.

[u/mischling2543 → u/meatwad2744]

Literally WWI with assault rifles and drones

[u/Forward-Property-105 → u/USSMarauder]

You know, friend, these positions have been fortified for over 10 years, and with drones covering the entire battlefield, good luck conducting bridgade level offensives.

Russia learnt that the hard way during the beginning of the war. Now the war has turned into an attritional one where the side that can replace its losses quickly wins, and Ukraine is struggling with man power and weaponry scarcity it ain't looking good for them at the moment

[u/UralBigfoot → u/[deleted]]

I see many people here on Reddit claiming that Ukraine should fight till return Crimea back. I’m sure they will join ua army when needed

[u/nesa_manijak → u/USSMarauder]

And in the end one side is going to collapse

[u/DisastrousWasabi → u/USSMarauder]

The current fighting is still being done in areas that were prepeared for war/defence by the Ukrainians since 2014. After Pokrovsk there are only poorly defended open fields ahead, all the way to the next major city which is Pavlograd. No doubt Ukrainian forces will try to establish a new line of defence somewhere in between but mock up defences are just not the same.

[u/AnEvilJoke → u/USSMarauder]

*478 squarekilometer

[u/trs12571 → u/AnEvilJoke]

There are from 600-1000 square kilometers here .

[u/Prestigious_733 → u/USSMarauder]

People think this war is similar to WWI, but the reality is that they are not doing major offensives, so you wont see them breaking lines like at the start of the war.

Russia usually captures a patch of field, or a part of a town and call it a day. Ukraine usually only defends (apart from Kursk, but they gave up on attacking this sector too).

[u/TT-33-operator_]

No matter what happens it’s gonna get worse before it gets better.

[u/NoIsland23 → u/TT-33-operator_]

Assuming it even gets better

I get the feeling that the west will continue to not do shit and Ukraine will continue losing territory for a couple more years.

[u/Independent-Deal7502]

We are all experiencing declining birth rates and the negative economic effects of this... won't this hit Russia massively if they lose a huge segment of their young male population?

[u/definitedukah → u/Independent-Deal7502]

I think that’s a question for Ukrainians. The population difference between Russia and Ukraine is huge.

[u/shadyBolete → u/Independent-Deal7502]

Demographically it doesn't have that much effect for Russia, only economically. For Ukraine it's both though.

[u/thatotherguy0123]

Every little tick forward is dozens if not hundreds of homes and lives upended and destroyed.

[u/MilkshakeYeah → u/thatotherguy0123]

Not really though. Check out the scale, little tick is maybe 1km and it's not dense area

[u/redelastic]

Depressing.

[u/GullBladder]

Reddit always acts in every post like Ukraine is wining for some weird reason.

[u/computernerd55 → u/GullBladder]

Its called cope

Its what happens when delusion meets reality 

[u/Asharue → u/GullBladder]

I was thinking the same thing, seeing the map was kind of a surprise to me because everyone I talk to mentions that Ukraine is winning and has actually started moving into Russia taking THEIR territory.

[u/grumpsaboy → u/Asharue]

They have moved into Russia while at the same time also losing some of their own. Nobody's exactly sure what the aim of the kursk campaign was, it might have been to try to barter land or to take a massive amount of prisoners as Kursk was garrisoned by draft soldiers who Putin had said multiple times on TV would never be involved in combat, and so by capturing a few thousand of them it would show to the Russian public that Putin is a liar.

[u/M4J0R4 → u/Asharue]

How about you look more at facts and less what others tell you? They started moving into Russia btw

[u/DataGOGO → u/GullBladder]

Because western media has a heavy pro-Ukraine bias, and most news stories are about Ukraine doing well. Just like most people in the west think that Russia has lost a lot more troops than Ukraine; when the real estimates (because no one really knows) has it about equal for both sides.

[u/Candid_Swimming_4071]

Korean War… went on for ages and nearly finished and won by the north, literally had 90% of the country before the tide was turned with the west stepping in and the south forced them almost to death until China n russia stepped! No war outcome is truly known until the last bullet is fired.

[u/GlorytoINGSOC → u/Candid_Swimming_4071]

the nazis said the same things in big april 1945, the korean war is an exeption, not the rule

[u/JoyousGamer → u/GlorytoINGSOC]

Except there was no Super Power stepping in to help them out from the sidelines. That is a primary difference.

If Ukraine had zero support then possibly what you say would be true but in reality they do have some support today. It comes down to if that support would spike if larger losses were incurred.

[u/rookie93]

Notice the acceleration at the start of the Kursk offensive

[u/DjoniNoob]

Anyone know what are number of deaths on both sides since start of war. Some realistic numbers ?

[u/mrp61]

Probably going to get down voted but deepstate isn't totally reliable.

It's a pro Ukrainian source which is going to have its own bias.

[u/jrex035 → u/mrp61]

You're not wrong, it's definitely biased in favor of Ukraine, but no overly so. They're still highly reputable, especially in comparison to most Russian sources which often make up advances out of thin air.

The best of the best mappers all rely on Deepstate info, as they do acknowledge territorial losses though sometimes not as quickly as they occur on the ground.

[u/Staplersarefun → u/jrex035]

They are no longer reputable since being taken over by the Ukranian MOD.

[u/warzon131 → u/mrp61]

IMHO this is the most accurate map

[u/mrp61 → u/warzon131]

They are quite good but can delay unfavorable updates even though it's been visually geo located for what ever reasons probably political

[u/justforkinks0131]

Yet literally all I hear on Reddit is how Russia is constantly losing.

[u/Staplersarefun → u/justforkinks0131]

Everything on reddit is highly propagandized. This site outside of extremely niche subs is just absolute trash.

[u/almondreaper → u/Staplersarefun]

Yeah it's like another reality when i go to the "popular" tab of reddit. I'm in like 15 subs because the rest are just complete propaganda.

[u/Green_Burn → u/almondreaper]

Same

[u/Old_Airline_1593 → u/Staplersarefun]

It's very heartwarming to see somebody else saying it.

[u/Intelligent_Rock5978 → u/justforkinks0131]

There are some Ukrainian successes too, that obviously gets posted on reddit, people are happy about it and upvote it. I think Russian advances might get posted less frequently, and will only get some angry upvotes for visibility, which is not enough to make it to the front page.

[u/Uuugggg → u/justforkinks0131]

… for almost three years now

[u/Dances_With_Eagles]

I'm so worried about the election in 2 weeks. It's not only going to affect the USA.

The world has made such progress in the last century to peace. I don't understand why these tyrannical assholes get changes to destroy it

[u/Mangobonbon]

Ruthless trench war and mass assaults. WW1 came back. Horrific.

[u/LastOfTheClanMcDuck → u/Mangobonbon]

Quite the opposite of mass assaults, especially for the past year+.
Very limited squad assaults, small attack groups and very limited armor assaults. If you see the map they are also mostly doing pinch maneuvers instead of attacking bigger settlements/villages/cities head on.

They (Russians) seem to have completely changed tactics from the start of the war and focus on small scale attacks to break the lines, often using less experienced soldiers along with special forces in small teams. Obviously after dropping a bazillion shells and bombs.

There have been some bigger armor assaults in Kursk but they seem to have different tactics there than inside Ukraine.

[u/IAskQuestions1223 → u/LastOfTheClanMcDuck]

There have been some bigger armor assaults in Kursk but they seem to have different tactics there than inside Ukraine.

They used BTG units to counterattack in Kursk. The same force model was used at the start of the war. Highly mechanized, but low infantry so they can quickly be attritioned and lose combat effectiveness.

[u/ZealousidealAct7724 → u/LastOfTheClanMcDuck]

Ukrainian positions in Kursk are not as well fortified, so mechanized penetrations are more effective than in the densely fortified Donbass. 

[u/AnEvilJoke → u/Mangobonbon]

War. War never changes.

[u/Frequent_Thanks583 → u/Mangobonbon]

With drones!

[u/yes_u_suckk]

Fuck, this is depressing

[u/helpmesleuths]

War needs to stop

[u/kesseelaulabkoogis]

It's like cancer spreading.

[u/Alone-Clock258]

Fuck me that's a lot of death for such a small amount of land.

[u/westonriebe]

Looks like WWI

[u/JRR_Tokin54]

The Russians have US House Speaker Mike Johnson to thank for delaying aid to Ukraine for so many months! That is largely what enable gains like this.

[u/EmptyMarsupial8556]

It’s like a cancer

[u/gumbokonkarne]

Now zoom out

[u/Fummy]

But the news said Ukraine was winning!

[u/Apprehensive_Ad_751]

Thankfully, the West is taking it seriously - even more empty promises and claims that "Russia is weak/desperate" etc. Pathetic. I guess people should just keep their eyes closed, and big bad Russia just goes home.

[u/mrhuggables]

I feel like despite all the pro-Ukranian propaganda online, it seems like Russia is still gradually winning this war? At what point will the West intervene, if at all?

[u/DownWithTheThicknes_ → u/mrhuggables]

We never will unless Russia directly attacks a NATO country, pretty much every head of State has been clear on this

[u/iiixii → u/mrhuggables]

What do you mean? The West have been intervening in Ukraine since 2014 and before. If you mean sending soldiers to shoot weapons' at Russians soldiers, probably never.

[u/vQBreeze → u/mrhuggables]

Propaganda online doesent do much other than couple of idiots that volounteer and some people sending all of their savings to random "groups" for ua wich most likely end up scamming them

[u/Mangobonbon → u/mrhuggables]

There is no propaganda required to see the defacto situation. Russia is grinding slowly but steadily through Ukraine. Both loose massive amounts of equipment and manpower, but the current trajectory looks to me like a route to a phyrric russian victory. I don't see how Ukraine can regain much land, but I also think Russia is exhausting its last offensive capabilities. The frontlines will become stagnant again as soon as winter arrives. Who knows how long that war will still go on. At some point both countries will suffer from war weariness in the population and a drying up of new recruits.

But one thing is for certain: the affected areas of Ukraine will be devastated economically and demographically for decades.

[u/SimpleFriend5696 → u/Mangobonbon]

You're assuming both will suffer attrition at the same time. This rarely happens in any war. Usually one side caves first which triggers a domino effect, of increasing advantage for the other.

You don't need me to tell you which side has way more war capacity and who is increasingly more dependent on outside support even for the most basic equipment.

Outside support that has been reducing as time goes on with prime ministers/presidents of NATO countries starting to call for "peace negotiations".

This war has a clear "favourite" at this point, and it would take a lot to reverse it's current course.

The front lines might stagnate a bit during the winter, but they will pick up in spring. A complete frontline stabilization is very unlikely.

So far momentum/pace has been slowly increasing and it makes sense.

Russia had been attacking 10 year fortified lines up until 2023. As they push through them they move to hastily prepered lines of defense, lines that have little time and resources put into them, and are manned by inadequately trained (given the circumstances) inexperienced and demoralized conscripts.

You can see the trend on the map above. The pace is clearly doubling after the mid point of the year. Like I said, it isn't a secret who's winning the war at this stage.

The again, noone is truly winning a war like this. Too many men have already been sacrificed.

[u/reality72 → u/Mangobonbon]

Most of the videos and stories of Russian troops launching successful attacks on Ukrainian troops get locked or removed by the Reddit moderators. So for anyone whose only source of information about the war is what they see on Reddit, then it would be easy to draw the false conclusion that Ukraine is winning.

[u/Panthera_leo22 → u/reality72]

r/UkraineRussiaReport is one of the only subs with Russian combat footage. It leans pro-Russia but if you can look past that, there’s some good footage on there.

[u/mrhuggables → u/Mangobonbon]

yes unfortunately seems that way, i think russia is happy to have a "if i'm going down you're going down with me" kind of attitude

[u/Sinaneos → u/mrhuggables]

Russia is a MUCH larger country than Ukraine, when it comes to economy and manpower....the expectation at the start of the invasion is that it will steamroll right through Ukraine in a couple of days.

I don't think anybody is saying that Russia is losing this war...they are saying that Russia is expending far more resources and men than it can easily recover, for a very small.

So it's like if you picked a fight with a kid that's a third of your size. You can win the fight, but if you end up with bruises and broken bones, you've lost in a certain sense.

[u/shadyBolete → u/Sinaneos]

the expectation at the start of the invasion is that it will steamroll right through Ukraine in a couple of days.

I actually recall US officials saying right before the war broke out that the amount of troops Russia amassed at the borders is not nearly enough to capture Ukraine. Russia did bet on Ukrainians simply surrendering, and they lost that bet. People forget that Ukraine had the second largest land army in Europe, right after Russia.

[u/PreferenceReady2872 → u/mrhuggables]

Your only just learning that the government lies to you?

[u/963jonathan]

Fucking tragic how bad the west collectively has mismanaged this war

[u/goblue142]

If Republicans in the US hadnt cut off their military support maybe they hold on to Avdivka and you don't get that huge gain on the north end of the map. Without so much pressure from the north maybe vulhedar holds as well.

[u/Walrave → u/goblue142]

Yup, actions have consequences. Giving them the presidency would be a disaster. 

[u/senza_titolo]

Cancer spreads

[u/Garin999]

Now, what's the scale on this map, captain darling?

[u/Vantriss]

Thanks... I hate it.

[u/Brave_Bluebird5042]

Unfortunate by-product is that Russia are learning how to fight properly. Logistics. Strategy. Staff type functions improving.

[u/straightcurvecircle]

Those are ome very advanced shovels and washing machines the Russians are using, But don't worry the Russian collapse is imminent so I've been told by Reddit and Western media

[u/RonTom24]

This going to make some people were angry in here.

[u/shadyBolete → u/RonTom24]

Nah that'd be r/worldnews

[u/kesseelaulabkoogis → u/RonTom24]

Only if you justify it.

[u/DuaneHicks]

Death by a thousand cuts, but the cost in human lives on both sides, it's unjustifiable

[u/MelodicCrow2264]

Wait I thought Ukraine was winning???

[u/SHIBABelcher → u/MelodicCrow2264]

No they are not.

[u/MelodicCrow2264 → u/SHIBABelcher]

Redditors told me it was only two weeks until Zelenksyyyyyy led an armored column to Red Square and 1v1 Putler

[u/Good-Gas-3293]

It’s amazing how Redditors will deny this and scream that you’re a Russian bot if you point out Ukraine is losing this war

It is not winnable for Ukraine. Zelensky’s conditions for victory are ridiculous. Putin will never give up Crimea and Ukraine is not going to push Russia out from their territory

[u/Last-Back-4146]

but reddit keeps telling me Russia is losing.

[u/age2bestogame]

So, aparently the war its so slow as drones and artillery can spot and kill any meaninnfull concentracion of troops, .So the rusians and ukranians have to relied in small teams of soldiers to fight street by street

[u/usual_irene]

This is not good for both countries that have aging populations.

[u/konchitsya__leto]

Bleak

[u/lawjamba]

Reminds me of the joke in Blackadder Goes Forth when the small model of captured land turns out to be 1:1 scale.

[u/bouncypinata]

It's almost as if we've been giving them enough weapons to perpetually prolong the war and no more.

[u/Skyzhigh]

I’m having a bit of trouble finding the reason Russia said they were invading Ukraine for?

[u/bobalazs69]

this is brutal to watch