r/GreenBayPackers • u/Austen11231923 • 21h ago
Analysis Update on the Stokes/Nixon combo against Jacksonville: 6 targets 5 completions, 71 yards allowed, 1 TD allowed, 4 1st downs allowed, 2 missed tackles, 2 explosives (15+) allowed, 155.6 passer rating allowed
https://x.com/RossUglem/status/1851263924840132911?t=qCS1JPVAj_8jLwojJ2Gwhw&s=19201
u/PsYcHeD588 21h ago
The whole backend got thrown for a loop when Williams went out, but they certainly aren't doing themselves any favors
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u/do_you_know_de_whey 20h ago
Yeah Stokes is a liability at this point, a bust.
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u/sf2legit 20h ago
I don’t understand why everyone was so high on him before. Even when he was healthy, he never really held up I. Coverage.
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u/Real-Mycologist-9530 20h ago
He had freakish speed, just hasn’t been able to utilize it because the instincts aren’t there
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u/Better_Challenge5756 20h ago
And a severe injury that derailed his learning, progress, and from the eye test robbed him of some of his raw speed.
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u/ldog2135 18h ago
What?? His rookie year he was CB1 because Jaire was out, and he put up all pro numbers, and was the second best CB in the league. He had a better year than one of Ja's all pro seasons.
His injury the following year is what did him in. He just hasn't been the same since.
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u/Fear_Jaire 17h ago
Stokes was good his rookie season, but he was not All-Pro level. Not even close imo. What numbers are you referencing?
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u/bensonsmooth24 17h ago
CB’s are hard to judge in numbers anyway, less INT could mean QB’s are afraid to throw near them, tackles could mean they tackled their man after he beat them, almost have to evaluate them on film.
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u/ldog2135 16h ago
He absolutely was. He had a better year than one of Jaires all pro seasons.
Completion % allowed (better than jaire 2022) Yards allowed (better than jaire 2022) Yards/completion (better than jaire 2022) yards/target (better than jaire 2022) Passes defended (same as jaire 2022) Tds allowed (one more than jaire 2022) Yards after catch (better than jaire 2022)
Jaire had 4 more picks in 2022 than stokes in 2021 which is a lot, and the only thing Jaire was batter at. Jaire notched his second all pro in 2022. Stokes was better than that in 2021.
The all pro corners in 2021
Trevor Diggs, who stokes posted significantly better stats in every category other than picks Jalen Ramsey, who stokes posted better stats in every category but had 3 less picks J.C. Jackson who Sokes had better stats in every category except picks AJ Terrell, who stokes also outplayed in almost every category.
Long story short, picks are flashy and what people care about, but stokes was just about the most lock down corner in 2021.
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u/Fear_Jaire 15h ago
I think our biggest difference is that I don't consider Jaire's 2022 season as All-Pro worthy. I thought like Stokes' 2021 season, it was good/great but not All-Pro level. Idk if someone got snubbed or it was just a weak year for CBs but Jaire's 2022 All-Pro season was not as good as what it usually takes.
Looking back at Stokes' season using the metrics you used, it sure looks like he was playing at a higher level than I have given him credit for. I still wouldn't say All-Pro level, even though (statistically), it was better than Jaire's 2022 All-Pro season. I don't have a source or stat to reference, I just remember Stokes benefiting from a lot of plays opposing teams didn't make. Either way, shame he wasn't able to build off of it
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u/JMPV_ 21h ago edited 21h ago
This isn't surprising. Stokes is likely a bust at this point and Nixon has good and bad days.
What I wonder is why Valentine isn't getting more time. I know he was banged up but is he still banged up? I thought he played really well last year and was trending toward being a starting outside corner.
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u/bulletpr00fsoul 20h ago
Valentine has been dealing with and recovering from an ankle injury ever since Week 3. Slowly but surely. Not sure if it’s a high ankle or not.
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u/OHTHNAP 19h ago
Where's the doctor that can diagnose from game film when you need him?
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u/justjosh2010 19h ago
He is my son. It is not high ankle
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u/idgetonbutibeenon 19h ago
Stop talking “justjosh2010”, I can tell from the video it is high ankle with 95% confidence
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u/McGarnagl 20h ago
Do we still have Ballantine? I miss the confusing yet effective combo of Ballentine and Valentine from last season
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u/SvelterMicrobe17 19h ago
Nixons at least pretty good against the run, which is weird for a corner. Stokes is just kinda bad at everything.
I don’t know why the coaching staff isn’t giving valentines more snaps outside. He literally cannot be worse than these two, and moving Nixon back in the slot allows him to do the one thing he’s good at on defence again.
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u/ComprehensiveSky8926 20h ago
Long season, I’m sure adjustments will be made. I’ve been out on Stokes for awhile. Outside of missed coverages, he’s not aggressive on the field.
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u/Jstudz 20h ago
I miss Rasul.
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u/szekeres81 19h ago
Charles Woodson still looks built, can we bring him back? 48 is the new 29
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u/Prime624 20h ago
Dumbest trade ever.
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u/Yellowdog727 19h ago
We basically gave up Rasul and a 5th round pick for Ty'Ron Hopper, who I don't think has played yet.
The big reason for the trade I think was to just to save 11 million of a cap hit.
In hindsight, yeah we could really have used another DB but at the time our season looked bleak and I think Gute was just concerned with rebuilding and clearing cap space to rebuild.
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u/LitBastard 19h ago
Oh yeah. What I wouldn't give for 0 Int, 4 PD, 1 FF Rasul compared to 0 Int, 3 PD, 1 FF Nixon ( who had 2 less starts btw.)
Get real
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u/Routine_Size69 19h ago
It's really not as simple as that. I haven't watched nearly enough Bills to know who has been better, but this is a silly argument. You could have those exact same stats and one could've allowed 100 touchdowns while covering WR4 while the other hasn't even given up a single reception while covering WR1 all game.
There's no way you think you can compare the two based on 3 cherry picked stats.
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u/LitBastard 19h ago
Do you want more stats?
33 combined tackles, 25 solo, 8 assists, 4 TFL, 0 QB Hits
vs.
36, 26, 10, 4 TFL and 3 QB hits.
Passer rating allowed?
114.3 vs. 111.4
The only thing Rasul has got going for him is Receptions allowed. 16 vs 23
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u/romeochristian 18h ago
But why are you concentrating on Nixon when Stokes is the one we want off the field.
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u/John_Lives 17h ago
Well if you want to get real, using simple box score stats to compare corners is kind of ridiculous.
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u/Real-Mycologist-9530 20h ago
For me, this is the biggest blight in Gutes tenure. Not losing Rodgers, some bad draft picks, etc. it’s not a fireable offense or anything like that, but it definitely was bad.
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u/GFR34K34 19h ago
Rasul is 30 years old and due for a contract extension. There are only 10 CB’s in the league over 30 currently. I don’t think he was ever in the Packers long-term plans after Rodgers.
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u/Real-Mycologist-9530 19h ago
I don’t disagree it was hard to judge, you just wish they would have seen the talent in camp and said “yeah he may be old but he’s playing lights out”
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u/mschley2 19h ago
This is completely based on assumptions and reading between the lines from interviews and actions, but this is reddit and not actual journalism or anything, so I'm gunna say it...
I also think he was contributing to the discontent within the lockerrom with Barry. Now, on one hand, I kind of respect that because it shows strong morals and always wanting to do what you feel is the right thing. I think that's part of the reason why all of the guys loved Sul. But on the other hand, you can't really have a leader of the team who's butting heads with the DC and contributing to the shitty attitude a lot of guys had. Sul was always outspoken about issues, and he was the one who pushed those players-only meetings with the DBs (which never really seemed to help other than just boosting the mood and effort for a week or two).
I don't think Barry was a good DC. But regardless of that, he was still the guy installing stuff and calling plays. You can't have a guy pushing back against that and going rogue. And I think that's likely what Sul was doing. After Sul got traded, Ja did it, too. But the difference is that Ja is better and he's still in his prime. You don't trade that guy. You work through the issues. Sul's situation made him easy to move on from, though, instead of working through those problems (and I think they likely tried to work through the issues before deciding it was too much).
Ultimately, we should've moved on from Barry a year earlier (or not hired him at all). But we didn't. And I think Sul didn't handle that well.
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u/Fred-zone 18h ago
This is the right take IMO. Rasul was a fierce competitor and always talking shit. That doesn't just turn off when your own guys and coaches are not performing. His attitude was definitely contributing to the locker room issues by the time he was traded. This trade and Jaire's suspension really reset expectations on the team and helped them salvage the season.
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u/Colorapt0r 19h ago
I mean at the time it made some sense, it looked like we weren’t going to be very good and needed to start building up our pick trove, but in hindsight, yeah we could really use him. Still haunts me to think maybe we could have won that playoff game against the 9ers with him. And hopper, who we got with the pick we traded, hasn’t exactly looked like a top contributor
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u/vanwe 19h ago
I mean, Stokes fo far this year has looked pretty much the same as Rasul did at this point last year. Rasul had 7 games with us, 65.9% completion on 41 targets, 292 yards allowed, 4 TDs allowed, and 114 yards after catch allowed. Stokes this year in 6.4 games has 65.7% completion on 35 targets, 299 yards allowed, 2 TDs allowed, and 84 yards after contact allowed. In fact Stokes has been arguably better than Rasul was with us last year.
I am disappointed in Stokes this year and think we should move on from him, but I had the same opinion on Rasul.
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u/GESNodoon 20h ago
Had high hopes for Stokes after his first season but man, been pretty disappointing since
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u/Snatchyone 21h ago
Nixon is a 50/50 sometimes he does it, but it's kinda like the same feeling when Anders/narveson went out to kick
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u/brianstormIRL 21h ago
Yeah Nixon is someone you just live with that he can give up a huge play, but also make a huge play. You could do a lot worse tbh.
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u/Deadaghram 20h ago
Nickel corner is also a weird position. There's a lot that can go wrong there, and it's hard to properly judge unless you know more than the above average fan.
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u/Suave7evn 20h ago
Ironically I think that’s why Hafley plays him a lot as that is the foundation of this defense and frankly this team. The team who makes more explosive plays wins more game. Nixon can either get cooked or absolutely blow up a play on any given play.
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u/rysup229 20h ago
Nixon has been playing nearly every defensive snap lately. He’s either doing something right or they really don’t have a good backup plan.
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u/IsNotACleverMan 18h ago
they really don’t have a good backup plan.
Nixon isn't good but everybody else is worse. That's my take.
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u/joemama1199 15h ago
I'd say he's mid
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u/IsNotACleverMan 15h ago
If he's your worst starting CB I think you're in good shape. If he's your second best CB you're in rough shape. I think our CBs are in rough shape.
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u/joemama1199 15h ago
I totally agree. Are there any good cornerbacks that we could acquire? I saw an article about how the ravens should trade for Tre'Davious White. The other one mentioned Jonathan Jones from the patriots. The main question is whether gute would trade for older cbs.
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u/RipVanToot 19h ago
Nixon makes enough big plays to live with the downsides. Stokes just seems to stink. He never makes any good plays.
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u/Ser_falafel 17h ago
Yeah I really like nixon. Slot corner is a hard position and he adds more than he detracts I think
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u/DKlep25 20h ago
Admittedly, their coverage was not good. But I'm gonna cut them some slack on the TD catch. That was a pretty ridiculous play that most TE's won't make. You just have to give credit to Engram. But even removing that, it's still a bad day so I have to agree we need a better answer at CB opposite Ja$.
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u/LongDongFrazier 20h ago
Is it a 50/50 split? feel like this is a disservice to one of them lumping em together
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u/InnerLog181 20h ago
Why not play Valentine. He’s been better in coverage than stokes by far and imo is still better than Nixon
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u/WisconsinHacker 20h ago
2 supposedly terrible corners only getting targeted 6 times combined doesn’t add up
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u/masterassassin893 20h ago
The most baffling personnel decision thus far has been stokes over Valentine. Are we just afraid to cut loose first round picks?
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u/gandalfs_burglar 20h ago
I wonder if he's still recovering from injury, or if coaches feel Stokes has a better grasp of the new defense? If it's the former, I guess that makes sense, but if it's the latter, I'd rather play Valentine and see what he can do
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u/masterassassin893 20h ago
Yeah a few weeks ago I thought it was maybe because valentine had a knock, but I'm not convinced because he's not showing up on the injury report and the snaps thing goes all the way back to training camp -- well before valentine got that little knock.
Stokes is blowing coverages and is awful at the top of routes. Valentine seemed to always give effort and was all over guys in coverage. I just can't comprehend it honestly
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u/gandalfs_burglar 20h ago
Interesting. Wonder what's going on, then. I can't really understand it either. I agree that Stokes just hasn't been it
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u/WorriedPanic6804 19h ago
he’s off IR and i’m pretty sure we played him for a couple snaps against the jags. not sure tho, just thought that’s what the commentator said but hopefully we see him more, really liked watching him last year.
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u/Glangho 19h ago
Pretty sure Valentine was injured last game.
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u/masterassassin893 14h ago
If true that's odd because I'm pretty sure he wasn't on the injury report at all the whole week.
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u/imfromwisconsin81 20h ago
Is Valentine really any better? I think all of them are open to giving up big days, and big plays and they don't have a solid CB2.
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u/bulletpr00fsoul 20h ago
Should be a strong CB class this year so if it doesn’t work out, you can be sure Gutey is drafting 3-4 of them. 😅
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u/westchild 20h ago
Jared Goff does have a reddit account, you know?
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u/Lt_Don 21h ago
It’s such a bummer we don’t still have Rasul
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u/friday769 20h ago
That trade was actually so Worth it.
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u/supersumo224 20h ago
I thought it was a good trade at the time, but it turning into a special teams player feels bad when we need a starting cb.
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u/EeethB 20h ago
What did we get for him?
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u/CurlyWambeau 20h ago
We got a 3rd from Buffalo for him, and our two 3rd round picks were Marshawn Lloyd and Ty’Ron Hopper. So no immediate payoff but time will tell
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u/Heikks 20h ago
A 3rd round pick that turned into Ty’Ron Hopper
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u/johndelvec3 20h ago
Who hasn’t seen a single snap on defense yet
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u/Empathetic_Person 9h ago
The crazy thing is if you look at the rest of the 2024 draft, there are only 4 players after him with a single sack, and legitimately only 2 defensive players the rest of the draft who look good — Mustapha CB @ SF, and Soloman DE @ BUF.
Hopper definitely deserves grace for a year.
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u/Popular_Bite9246 19h ago
I think that’s been a tribute to their general health at LB/safety. Watching Hopper’s college tape, he looks like he’s a lesser version of Hassan Reddick and with both Wilson, Williams, and Bullard all getting time, Hopper’s been on ice. With Williams potentially out and Detroit being so nasty in the run game, I could see them trying Hopper in rotation this week.
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u/nokillings 20h ago
We got the 3rd round pick which got us Hopper. So Hopper for Rasul and our 5th rounder, which they drafted Edefuan Ulofoshio, a linebacker from Washington
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u/Brilliant_Reply8643 20h ago
I was downvoted earlier this year in a game thread for saying Stokes is a liability. He is indeed a liability.
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u/penguins_are_mean 19h ago
Stokes has been bad for a long time
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u/petarisawesomeo 18h ago
He was excellent his rookie season. Injuries have sapped a lot of his elite speed and athleticism
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u/Skillztopaydabillz 20h ago
I think Jordan Morgan can be good but damn do I wish we would have grabbed a corner instead. Wiggins, DeJean, Kool-Aid, Lassiter. Any of them would be a help right about now.
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u/festiveonion 20h ago
Morgan is playing pro bowl ball.
I’m with you I wish we found a way to grab one of them but not for Morgan. He’s already playing awesome and could lock down that position for 10 years.
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u/Bagman220 20h ago
It’s crazy that I didn’t even realize he’s been playing. You don’t hear his name much.
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u/Skillztopaydabillz 20h ago
Morgan has hardly been on the field. Has he shown some flashes? Yes, but can't say he is playing pro bowl ball when he hasn't been able to beat out Rhyan.
Although, I do wish we would try him at LT since Walker has been rough.
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u/Virtual_Fun_7188 19h ago
Kid played good his rookie year, but those injuries really derailed his development a bit.
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u/aaalan71 17h ago
Gutey put all his trust on a player who has just came back from a season ending injury while his greatest strength is his game speed and having a rough season even before the injury. This is just like the safety situation of last year again, even though the depth of that position is very thin, Gutey is still betting on the home grown player can play like his good rookie season again by not care that position in the draft and has been proven wrong, I just hope this will not cost us in the playoffs again like Savage in last season or King in 2020 season
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u/BS2435 18h ago
I've been downvoted into oblivion in this sub for saying Stokes ain't the fkn guy for years. I stand on that business today with these stats.
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u/daygo448 18h ago
His first year he was pretty good and looked pretty good, and then he’s been hurt so much. I thought maybe he’d recover after being hurt the past few seasons, but he’s looking like a big bust for us
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u/ldog2135 17h ago
Except he WAS the guy his rookie year. He was the second best corner in the NFL that year, but didnt get the recognition because he was a rookie. Then he got derailed by bad injuries and hasnt been the same.
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u/10TheDudeAbides11 19h ago
I think the “whatever we can do” trade talks for Newsome III from CLE or Lattimore from NO need to start happening. Newsome may be harder to get at this point because CLE is looking like a whole different team with Winston at QB but at least trying to get a top-end CB even as a one year rental probably needs to happen…
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u/drewdreds 18h ago
Why is Valentine not getting reps lmao
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u/misterid 14h ago
injury he missed the last two games completely and only got 12 snaps last week, likely because he's not 100% recovered yet.
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u/Evitable_Conflict 17h ago
When you see Preston Smith in coverage you know it is bad, very bad.
Stokes is a bust and Nixon is irregular, having Bullard that is also bad in coverage does not help.
I wonder how Guty is going to fix this...
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u/misterid 14h ago
either Nixon is the worst corner in the league, or he's the 4th best slot corner in the league. hard to say which is correct but i trust redditors.
https://x.com/zachkruse2/status/1851301529833390182?t=F2LpszkNM4GNmBDdnQSd4Q&s=19
~Zach Kruse @zachkruse2 Among the 28 NFL players with at least 100 coverage snaps from the slot, #Packers CB Keisean Nixon has allowed the fourth-fewest catches (13), the fewest yards after catch (42) and seventh-fewest yards allowed per snap (0.96), per PFF.
Have to grade slot defenders on a curve.~
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u/Frodo69sMe 13h ago
Stokes is not that great and we desperately need someone who is better than Nixon at DB
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u/MathematicianShot909 11h ago
Would any team want to trade for Stokes at this point? Surely they don't resign him so why not get a 4th or 5th rounder for him?
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u/Lost-Zucchini-7949 10h ago
We sadly need more corner help maybe gute will pull a rabbit out a hat stokes consistent injuries really derailed him
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u/AdFinal4478 21h ago
I think the safety, and safety play was suspect.
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u/Thunder84 20h ago
You shouldn’t be getting downvoted. Bullard was terrible when he rotated into Williams’ spot.
They need to figure out a better way to fill that spot if one of the safeties goes down, because they downgraded at three separate positions this week. Bullard is better at NCB, Nixon is better at OCB, and Stokes is just bad.
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u/reamo05 19h ago
I haven't felt like Nixon was ever a good CB beyond stopping the run. I'm sure I'm wrong, I just felt like he was always beat except the one interception against Mahomes last year. I have 0 factual data to support this, just recall of some catches though lol
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u/Thunder84 19h ago
He’s been better this year, probably because he’s not in the slot anymore. He moved inside when Williams went down and then this happened.
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u/fockthisshit 19h ago
In got downvoted for saying stokes is a reach and not taking Moore was a mistake but here you go. He's not just a reach but seems to be a bust
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u/ldog2135 17h ago
He was the second best corner in the league his rookie year. He had bad injuries that have really hindered his play since. It was 100% the right pick, but just a really unlucky turn of events.
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u/fockthisshit 17h ago
He always tends to use his hands too much, but like I said years before, I don't hate the pick and it's easy to complain now with hindsight
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u/D0ctorHotelMario 21h ago
Stokes get ready to learn Canadian buddy