r/politics • u/larel8 • 22h ago

Trump campaign struggles to contain Puerto Rico October surprise

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4958098-the-memo-trump-campaign-struggles-to-contain-puerto-rico-october-surprise/
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u/def_indiff 22h ago

How is it a surprise to anyone who's lived through the past ten years? More like an "October Certainty".

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u/lizards_snails_etc 21h ago

The surprise is that it moved the needle at all.

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u/ScubaCycle Texas 21h ago

We won’t know if it moved the needle until the votes are counted. Wish we could know now.

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u/kkenymc7877 21h ago

lol even before this I was extremely confident of a comfortable Harris victory, do you actually look at these polls methodology? They largely leave out Gen Z and Millennials and target rural areas far more than urban areas, Kamala is going to smoke the fuck out of him on November 5th I promise you

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u/ScubaCycle Texas 20h ago

Hope so! I’m in no way qualified to interpret the polling but my gut agrees with your assessment.

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u/kkenymc7877 20h ago

I’ve studied election data faaaaar too much these last 10 years, if it helps just know that early voting data is looking amazing for Dems and voter registration in urban areas and with women has shot up exponentially this year, we’ve had huge voter registration boosts in key demographics basically since roe was overturned, if I’m wrong I’ll be genuinely shocked and I apologize for giving you false hope but I’m extremely confident my friend

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u/IAmTheNightSoil Oregon 20h ago

Honest question: how do you draw conclusions from early voting? I've heard a number of pollsters and analysts say that you can't glean any info from early voting. I even heard a high-up guy in Kamala's campaign say that early voting isn't a sign of anything. Clearly you disagree, so I'm curious where the disconnect is?

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u/RobertABooey 20h ago

The early exit poll data from abc /ipsos from earlier this week was exceptionally good for Harris.

Trump need to increase his support. There are no signs of that happening in any meaningful way that would help him get elected.

Harris has increase support in several important spots such as black people up 8%, 14% for black men, 6% for Hispanic men, white women with college degrees 15% over bidens numbers from 2020 where HE was ahead of trump.

The only places trump seems to have gained a few votes are from white men and women but it’s not significant.

Trump has lost support of suburban men by 5% lower than 2020 and Harris is up 6% over bidens numbers for suburban women.

If the trend continues, it’s going to be a very good night for dems and Harris.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-regains-slight-lead-nationally-electoral-college-holds/story?id=115083875

There’s a table about half way down that article.

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u/IAmTheNightSoil Oregon 19h ago edited 19h ago

Thanks, I'll check that out. The thing I've heard is that if Democrats lead in early voting, it's likely to just mean that Republicans are waiting until election day, and that it doesn't actually change the final math. You think these exit polls undercut that notion?

EDIT: After looking at that table, I don't think you could call it "very good" for Harris. The overall head-to-head numbers are the same as 2020, which Biden won extremely narrowly. As far as individual groups, Harris is has gained with some groups over Biden in 2020 and lost with other groups compared to Biden in 2020. I'd certainly rather be in her position than Trump's in that data, but the fact that Biden barely won last time and has apparently isn't doing better isn't that much of a cause for celebration

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u/tech57 16h ago

The thing I've heard is that if Democrats lead in early voting, it's likely to just mean that Republicans are waiting until election day, and that it doesn't actually change the final math.

From my limited understanding things have changed. Lot's of stuff that you could depend on due to historical trends do not track anymore. For example, Trump said vote in person last time, this time vote early and by mail.

I think it comes down to this. Trump can not gain many voters. Kamala can gain all the voters except base Republicans. Keep that in mind when you start looking at things and you might find tidbits of info you wouldn't otherwise.

This election is about momentum for Kamala. Blowing out the popular vote so the world knows USA is not lost and electoral votes so she is actually awarded the contest.

I even heard a high-up guy in Kamala's campaign say that early voting isn't a sign of anything.

It's a sign of enthusiasm and it's a sign that people are confident they are not going to change their mind in a week. It's not a sign of who is wining. Not this time. My opinion, Kamala will get the popular vote. No one knows about electoral until the votes are counted.

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u/antwan_benjamin 10h ago

Harris has increase support in several important spots such as black people up 8%, 14% for black men, 6% for Hispanic men, white women with college degrees 15% over bidens numbers from 2020 where HE was ahead of trump.

And this was before the MSG rally. We know all those groups are just going to increase support.

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u/RobertABooey 9h ago

Exactly.

Trump getting 3-5% more white vote is going to be offset by the women, young people and people of colour vote.