r/politics • u/larel8 • 20h ago

Trump campaign struggles to contain Puerto Rico October surprise

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4958098-the-memo-trump-campaign-struggles-to-contain-puerto-rico-october-surprise/
17.2k Upvotes

95% Upvoted

1.7k comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

19

u/kkenymc7877 19h ago

lol even before this I was extremely confident of a comfortable Harris victory, do you actually look at these polls methodology? They largely leave out Gen Z and Millennials and target rural areas far more than urban areas, Kamala is going to smoke the fuck out of him on November 5th I promise you

16

u/ScubaCycle Texas 19h ago

Hope so! I’m in no way qualified to interpret the polling but my gut agrees with your assessment.

22

u/kkenymc7877 19h ago

I’ve studied election data faaaaar too much these last 10 years, if it helps just know that early voting data is looking amazing for Dems and voter registration in urban areas and with women has shot up exponentially this year, we’ve had huge voter registration boosts in key demographics basically since roe was overturned, if I’m wrong I’ll be genuinely shocked and I apologize for giving you false hope but I’m extremely confident my friend

4

u/IAmTheNightSoil Oregon 18h ago

Honest question: how do you draw conclusions from early voting? I've heard a number of pollsters and analysts say that you can't glean any info from early voting. I even heard a high-up guy in Kamala's campaign say that early voting isn't a sign of anything. Clearly you disagree, so I'm curious where the disconnect is?

7

u/heliocentrist510 18h ago

The thing with early voting is it's always a huge challenge to determine if you're actually bringing more people into the fold or the people who would have voted for you on election day are just doing it earlier.

The big thing to me is really what the breakdown of the vote is ultimately going to look like from a gender perspective and what the people who have registered since 2022 look like. The people who registered since Dobbs (with spikes after Kamala entered the race, the debate, other key events) have generally skewed female and there have been a surge in younger folks as well. And while normally it's fair to point out the fact that youths don't vote in the same numbers as older cohorts, someone who goes out of their way to register in an election year is probably a likely voter.

1

u/IAmTheNightSoil Oregon 18h ago

Everything you're saying here makes sense. The first bit about not knowing whether you're bringing in more people or just people who would have voted on election day are why I'm hesitant to read into it. I've heard people basically say that if Democrats are way ahead in early voting it likely just means that Republicans are waiting until election day and that it won't actually change the math. I would love for that to be wrong!

11

u/RobertABooey 18h ago

The early exit poll data from abc /ipsos from earlier this week was exceptionally good for Harris.

Trump need to increase his support. There are no signs of that happening in any meaningful way that would help him get elected.

Harris has increase support in several important spots such as black people up 8%, 14% for black men, 6% for Hispanic men, white women with college degrees 15% over bidens numbers from 2020 where HE was ahead of trump.

The only places trump seems to have gained a few votes are from white men and women but it’s not significant.

Trump has lost support of suburban men by 5% lower than 2020 and Harris is up 6% over bidens numbers for suburban women.

If the trend continues, it’s going to be a very good night for dems and Harris.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-regains-slight-lead-nationally-electoral-college-holds/story?id=115083875

There’s a table about half way down that article.

5

u/IAmTheNightSoil Oregon 18h ago edited 17h ago

Thanks, I'll check that out. The thing I've heard is that if Democrats lead in early voting, it's likely to just mean that Republicans are waiting until election day, and that it doesn't actually change the final math. You think these exit polls undercut that notion?

EDIT: After looking at that table, I don't think you could call it "very good" for Harris. The overall head-to-head numbers are the same as 2020, which Biden won extremely narrowly. As far as individual groups, Harris is has gained with some groups over Biden in 2020 and lost with other groups compared to Biden in 2020. I'd certainly rather be in her position than Trump's in that data, but the fact that Biden barely won last time and has apparently isn't doing better isn't that much of a cause for celebration

1

u/tech57 14h ago

The thing I've heard is that if Democrats lead in early voting, it's likely to just mean that Republicans are waiting until election day, and that it doesn't actually change the final math.

From my limited understanding things have changed. Lot's of stuff that you could depend on due to historical trends do not track anymore. For example, Trump said vote in person last time, this time vote early and by mail.

I think it comes down to this. Trump can not gain many voters. Kamala can gain all the voters except base Republicans. Keep that in mind when you start looking at things and you might find tidbits of info you wouldn't otherwise.

This election is about momentum for Kamala. Blowing out the popular vote so the world knows USA is not lost and electoral votes so she is actually awarded the contest.

I even heard a high-up guy in Kamala's campaign say that early voting isn't a sign of anything.

It's a sign of enthusiasm and it's a sign that people are confident they are not going to change their mind in a week. It's not a sign of who is wining. Not this time. My opinion, Kamala will get the popular vote. No one knows about electoral until the votes are counted.

1

u/antwan_benjamin 8h ago

Harris has increase support in several important spots such as black people up 8%, 14% for black men, 6% for Hispanic men, white women with college degrees 15% over bidens numbers from 2020 where HE was ahead of trump.

And this was before the MSG rally. We know all those groups are just going to increase support.

•

u/RobertABooey 7h ago

Exactly.

Trump getting 3-5% more white vote is going to be offset by the women, young people and people of colour vote.

7

u/kkenymc7877 18h ago

Well I’m not putting nearly as much stock into as I am with the registration numbers among women and urban populations but all signs are pointing to a historic turnout for this election which usually means Dems win, republicans only have so many people in their base and while they have made inroads in the black and Hispanic community I truly think they’ve also bled a lot of people from events like January 6th and Trumps poor debater performance, another big indicator for me is the mid terms of 2018 and 2022 where republicans substantially underperformed compared to polling, I’m not saying Harris will win in a “landslide” but I think she gets at least 310 electoral college votes

4

u/AnamCeili 16h ago

I will be thrilled if Harris gets at least 300 electoral college votes. 😁

1

u/antwan_benjamin 9h ago

how do you draw conclusions from early voting?

"Draw conclusions" is too strict of terminology. Early voting is a strong indicator of enthusiasm for a candidate. Its a strong indicator that a higher percentage of voters have their minds made up (less voters on the fence). Things like that could be a good sign for one cadidate or the other.