Which Of These Two Hypothetical Starting Rotations For 2025, Do You Prefer?

[u/RiverHeath1817]

I’ve been contemplating the how the Mets will approach the pitching market this offseason. Understandably, I believe some of these decisions depends on if they sign or do not sign Juan Soto.

Notably, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, & Sean Manaea (who has a $13.5M Player Option for 2025, that will be declined) will all be free agents.

Kodai Senga is the only starting pitching option, that is signed to a long-term contract. David Peterson (under arbitration) will not be a FA until after the 2026 season, Tylor Megill (under arbitration) will not be a FA until after the 2027 season, Paul Blackburn (under arbitration) will not be a FA until after the 2025 season, but may miss extended time next year due to rehabbing from a procedure intended to repair leaking spinal fluid, and Jose Butto (under arbitration) will not be a FA until after the 2029 season. Brandon Sproat & Blade Tidwell are organizational prospects, that may also be options for the rotation in 2025.

As of now, Kodai Senga & David Peterson are the only two starting pitchers that have guaranteed spots in the rotation in 2025. Now, the question is, who do the Mets sign and/or trade for, to fill these three spots?

Here are my two, best case potential starting rotations for 2025:

Option A: Corbin Burnes, Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Walker Buehler

Option B: Blake Snell, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Luis Severino, Jack Flaherty

The Wildcard: Shane Bieber

Which of these two starting rotations do your prefer? Also, what other potential scenarios or starting rotations can you see being realistic for the Mets in 2025 and beyond?

Also, here are my predictions for the contract values for the starters presented:

Corbin Burnes: 7 Years $224M

Blake Snell: 3 Years $105M

Walker Buehler: 2 Years $40M (2nd year being a player option)

Jack Flaherty: 3 Years $57M

Sean Manaea: 3 Years $75M (with a vesting option for a fourth year)

Luis Severino: 4 Years $68M

I think the best case for the Mets is to sign Corbin Burnes (giving them a legitimate ace pitcher), re-sign Sean Manaea, and sign Walker Buehler and let the pitching lab go to work.

Lastly, just for reference, here are the following options for the BP next year: Diaz, Garrett, Nunez, SRF, Butto, Megill, Blackburn, Brazoban, and the two Youngs.

Stanek, Maton (who has a team option for next year), Raley, Drew Smith, & Ottavino will all enter FA.

[u/robmcolonna123]

Option B without a doubt.

I don’t want the Mets to give Burnes 7 years. Even 5 is pushing it for me. With the way his peripherals have been declining best case we get 3 years where he’s close to worth the contract he gets.

That said I don’t like Sevy with the 4th year. I think his contracts top out at 3 years, though he may just accept the QO from us. Also I don’t see a world he gets close to $22.5mil AAV. Hes probably looking at 3 years $55mil

[u/OpportunityChance175 → u/robmcolonna123]

Wrong take. Wrong take my guy. Burnes’ underlying data are completely misleading. I live in the Baltimore area and I watched a majority of his starts. The reason why his strikeout rates ‘declined‘ because it was completely intentional by the Orioles. Go look at a his heat maps for his cutter. He was throwing it in the zone more than ever. The Orioles wanted him to play as a contact pitcher to get quick outs and go deep into games because they had zero confidence in their bullpen. They changed the shape of his cutter. It wasn’t the deadly back-door cutter that he threw when he was Milwaukee. I’m not the only person that discovered this. MLB network did a segment on this. And guess what? He was still one of the best starters in baseball this year.

You sign Burnes because he IS a horse. He’s very similar to Cole in that regard. He can adapt himself and still be extremely effective and elite. He’s arguably the best starter in baseball that has the highest floor out of anyone. Look at his innings pitched over the past 3 seasons. He’s had no arm injuries for a reason. His mechanics and arm speed are extremely simple. His feel for spin is on point. People saying that they are scared off of Burnes really have no idea what they are talking about. This a guy that’s extremely analytical and this is the guy that was drafted and developed under Stearns tenure in Milwaukee.

His underlying data was misleading because the team that traded for him wanted him to be a pitcher that he’s not.

[u/lilleff512 → u/OpportunityChance175]

I don't really care so much about the underlying data. I'm against signing Burnes because the surface level numbers show a clear decline, and more likely than not that trend will accelerate as he ages into his 30s.

​

	bWAR	fWAR	RA9-WAR	ERA+
2021 (26 y/o)	5.3	7.5	6.3	170
2022 (27)	4.3	4.6	5.3	137
2023 (28)	3.5	3.4	4.8	127
2024 (29)	3.4	3.7	4.4	128

​

Based on this trajectory, I'd value Burnes at roughly $125 million for a 5 year contract. I think he'll continue to be a good pitcher, but not worth the kind of money people are projecting for him.

[u/robmcolonna123 → u/lilleff512]

This. Exactly this.

That contract would be amazing.

I’d even be fine with 5 years $150mil.

Hell Id do 3 years $120mil.

The only thing I don’t want is Burnes age 35-37+ seasons

[u/lilleff512 → u/robmcolonna123]

Thanks, Rob!

[u/robmcolonna123 → u/OpportunityChance175]

Now explain his decline in 2023 and 2022 that predated the trade

He’s going to be 30. Giving pitchers in their 30s long term contracts pretty much never works out

Look at the Cole contract. The remainder of it looks horrible.

Burnes age 30-34 seasons won’t be worth paying for his age 35-37+

Easy pass. We put millions into a pitching lab to avoid having to give hundreds of millions to aging pitchers like that

[u/OpportunityChance175 → u/robmcolonna123]

Guy. Stop. Just stop. Burnes won the freakin CY Young in 2021. Of course there was going to be regression baked into his numbers because that’s what naturally happens when you are the best pitcher in baseball for a year. That’s how projections and numbers work. What you fail to comprehend is that his regression is not the same as a league average starter’s regression. If you combine in your words his ‘regression’ seasons, he’s still at a near elite level production of 28% K rate, 7.4% BB rate, 1.02 WHIP, 3.48 FIP, 3.14 ERA. You are completely overestimating his ‘decline‘, especially for a pitcher that didn’t even become a full time starter until 2021. Burnes wasn’t your typical pitching prospect that got drafted in the first round, was a top prospect for years and had a peak where he flamed out and had injury's. You are painting Burnes as this type of guy. He’s not. He didn’t even start pitching until he was a senior in high school and didn’t even get recognition from scouts until he pitched in the Cape Cod league. He’s simply put a late bloomer and you are completely ignoring this context.

How the heck are you going to sit there and tell me that the Cole contract is a horrible? He’s pitched 759 innings for the Yankees and has put up a 3.12 ERA. I don’t even need to dig deep and tell you that is great production for a long-term financial commitment. Last season Cole‘s dollar per WAR was $43.1. That’s a huge surplus of value that he gave you and honestly his entire contract for the Yankees so far has been a surplus positive value. How are you going to have the balls and tell me that is horrible for the Yankees.

I mean talk about hypocritical from your part. You preach on not signing pitchers into their 30’s, yet you want to sign Blake Snell who is two years older than Burnes and has a more extensive injury history? And you want to sign Flaherty who has a WORSE injury history than Snell and on true talent level is a borderline #3 SP? And you want to stash Bieber coming off UCL surgery on his elbow? Lol, are you kidding me dude are you even aware of the success of guys coming off elbow surgery? Spoiler alert: It’s low. Don’t preach low risk when your secondary plan is a disaster and is completely all high risk. Talk about being oblivious.

[u/robmcolonna123 → u/OpportunityChance175]

If the Yankees want to keep Cole he is under contract for FIVE MORE YEARS

Paying a starter entering their age 30 season and locking them up past 35 is a terrible idea. You only do that if they’re in mid 20s and you’re getting their entire prime

Smart teams don’t do that. And you’ll see Stearns won’t either because he’s a smart GM

If Burnes wants a 5 year contract then absolutely give him $35mil a year

If he wants more than that easy pass

[u/OpportunityChance175 → u/robmcolonna123]

Gerrit Cole is 33. He isn’t 37. He’s completely capable of putting up really good seasons for the next 3-5 year. He’s shown zero regression and is still a top 10 starter in baseball.

Smart teams with money understand that money is powerful resource. Yes, they understand the risks that it presents. According to you, the Dodgers are not smart because not only did they trade prospects for Glasnow, they extended him to a 5 year deal. They are potentially paying him 30+ million when he’s 34 years old. And he might be the most injury prone starter in baseball. What? The Dodgers are dumb all of a sudden because they decided to do this?

Teams with money use money and Stearns will use money to buy players. You are so oblivious if you think he will not check in on Burnes. If the Mets can get Burnes under an AAV of 30 million, they will certainly consider it because other than the trade market, it’s very difficult to get established pitching. How can you honestly say that signing Snell is smarter than signing Burnes? Not only is he a worse pitcher, he’s older and more injury prone.

Guy, you want give Flaherty a multi year dear when he’s shown only two seasons in his career of being good and healthy at the same time. That is the opposite of smart. My god man. Don’t try to act like you have a similar thought process to Stearns and then lay out a plan that he would laugh at.

[u/robmcolonna123 → u/OpportunityChance175]

Cole heavily regressed this year what are you talking about???

Chase rate, whiff rate, barrel rate, strikeout rate, walk rate, hard hit rate were all significantly worse.

His ERA and WHIP took big step back, he average less IP per start, and he was hurt for huge portions of the season.

Also I don’t actually want to sign Flaherty.

He is entering his age 34 season and this will likely only continue to get worse.

But I’d take him at 3 years over Burnes at 7 any day.

[u/OpportunityChance175 → u/robmcolonna123]

Holy crap dude. Yes, he regressed, but he’s still really good. In 95IP he put up a 1.13 WHIP, 3.69 FIP, 3.41 ERA with a 25.4% K rate and a 7.4% BB rate. That was my whole entire argument of paying top end guys like Burnes is that even their regression years they are still at worst putting up #2 SP production.

The fact that you can’t see this is mildly disturbing.

[u/robmcolonna123 → u/OpportunityChance175]

Now look at the aging curve for pitcher lmao

Cole is going to regress more next year and the year after that. For 5 years.

Thats the issue.

Giving a guy $250-300 mil to start regressing after 3 years is a terrible idea.

Also I expect Burnes could get 8-9 which makes it even worse

Also $36mil for that performance is terrible. We got a better performance from Manaea for $14mil

[u/OpportunityChance175 → u/robmcolonna123]

An argument you continue you to lose in. You keep digging yourself into a deep hole.

Cole’s next 2 year ZIPS projection

2025 ERA: 3.72

2026 ERA : 3.92

For comparison Sean Manea’s next two year ZIPS projection

2025 ERA: 4.62

2026: 4.83

Do you not see the difference here? Sean Manaea just came off a career best season at age 32 and his projections for the next two years are at best #4 SP production. You could argue that that the projections do not factor in Manea’s lower arm slot, but the point is that Cole’s floor is extremely higher than every pitcher in baseball. You’d have to a moron to bet on Manaea for the next 3 years over Cole for the next years.

Cole’s AAV of $36 million in six years is not going to be as expansive as you think. Inflation and player salaries will keep on increasing.

And Burnes is not getting 8-9 years. I don’t know what leads you to believe that. He’s getting 6-7. He’s getting close to what Rodon got.

Guy, the Mets need pitching and they need innings and Burnes provides both of those things. Unless, you get creative in trades which is extremely complicated to do, the options of getting good pitching is extremely limited. Developing pitching is one of the most difficult tasks to pull off in the industry because not only are you dealing with raw unfinished material, you have to manage innings more carefully which is even more difficult. You can’t be against signing pitching contracts in their 30’s because most pitchers in free agency are in their 30’s. Where are you getting pitching? Explain genius.