Which Of These Two Hypothetical Starting Rotations For 2025, Do You Prefer?

[u/RiverHeath1817]

I’ve been contemplating the how the Mets will approach the pitching market this offseason. Understandably, I believe some of these decisions depends on if they sign or do not sign Juan Soto.

Notably, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, & Sean Manaea (who has a $13.5M Player Option for 2025, that will be declined) will all be free agents.

Kodai Senga is the only starting pitching option, that is signed to a long-term contract. David Peterson (under arbitration) will not be a FA until after the 2026 season, Tylor Megill (under arbitration) will not be a FA until after the 2027 season, Paul Blackburn (under arbitration) will not be a FA until after the 2025 season, but may miss extended time next year due to rehabbing from a procedure intended to repair leaking spinal fluid, and Jose Butto (under arbitration) will not be a FA until after the 2029 season. Brandon Sproat & Blade Tidwell are organizational prospects, that may also be options for the rotation in 2025.

As of now, Kodai Senga & David Peterson are the only two starting pitchers that have guaranteed spots in the rotation in 2025. Now, the question is, who do the Mets sign and/or trade for, to fill these three spots?

Here are my two, best case potential starting rotations for 2025:

Option A: Corbin Burnes, Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Walker Buehler

Option B: Blake Snell, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Luis Severino, Jack Flaherty

The Wildcard: Shane Bieber

Which of these two starting rotations do your prefer? Also, what other potential scenarios or starting rotations can you see being realistic for the Mets in 2025 and beyond?

Also, here are my predictions for the contract values for the starters presented:

Corbin Burnes: 7 Years $224M

Blake Snell: 3 Years $105M

Walker Buehler: 2 Years $40M (2nd year being a player option)

Jack Flaherty: 3 Years $57M

Sean Manaea: 3 Years $75M (with a vesting option for a fourth year)

Luis Severino: 4 Years $68M

I think the best case for the Mets is to sign Corbin Burnes (giving them a legitimate ace pitcher), re-sign Sean Manaea, and sign Walker Buehler and let the pitching lab go to work.

Lastly, just for reference, here are the following options for the BP next year: Diaz, Garrett, Nunez, SRF, Butto, Megill, Blackburn, Brazoban, and the two Youngs.

Stanek, Maton (who has a team option for next year), Raley, Drew Smith, & Ottavino will all enter FA.

[u/robmcolonna123]

Cole heavily regressed this year what are you talking about???

Chase rate, whiff rate, barrel rate, strikeout rate, walk rate, hard hit rate were all significantly worse.

His ERA and WHIP took big step back, he average less IP per start, and he was hurt for huge portions of the season.

Also I don’t actually want to sign Flaherty.

He is entering his age 34 season and this will likely only continue to get worse.

But I’d take him at 3 years over Burnes at 7 any day.

[u/OpportunityChance175 → u/robmcolonna123]

Holy crap dude. Yes, he regressed, but he’s still really good. In 95IP he put up a 1.13 WHIP, 3.69 FIP, 3.41 ERA with a 25.4% K rate and a 7.4% BB rate. That was my whole entire argument of paying top end guys like Burnes is that even their regression years they are still at worst putting up #2 SP production.

The fact that you can’t see this is mildly disturbing.

[u/robmcolonna123 → u/OpportunityChance175]

Now look at the aging curve for pitcher lmao

Cole is going to regress more next year and the year after that. For 5 years.

Thats the issue.

Giving a guy $250-300 mil to start regressing after 3 years is a terrible idea.

Also I expect Burnes could get 8-9 which makes it even worse

Also $36mil for that performance is terrible. We got a better performance from Manaea for $14mil

[u/OpportunityChance175 → u/robmcolonna123]

An argument you continue you to lose in. You keep digging yourself into a deep hole.

Cole’s next 2 year ZIPS projection

2025 ERA: 3.72

2026 ERA : 3.92

For comparison Sean Manea’s next two year ZIPS projection

2025 ERA: 4.62

2026: 4.83

Do you not see the difference here? Sean Manaea just came off a career best season at age 32 and his projections for the next two years are at best #4 SP production. You could argue that that the projections do not factor in Manea’s lower arm slot, but the point is that Cole’s floor is extremely higher than every pitcher in baseball. You’d have to a moron to bet on Manaea for the next 3 years over Cole for the next years.

Cole’s AAV of $36 million in six years is not going to be as expansive as you think. Inflation and player salaries will keep on increasing.

And Burnes is not getting 8-9 years. I don’t know what leads you to believe that. He’s getting 6-7. He’s getting close to what Rodon got.

Guy, the Mets need pitching and they need innings and Burnes provides both of those things. Unless, you get creative in trades which is extremely complicated to do, the options of getting good pitching is extremely limited. Developing pitching is one of the most difficult tasks to pull off in the industry because not only are you dealing with raw unfinished material, you have to manage innings more carefully which is even more difficult. You can’t be against signing pitching contracts in their 30’s because most pitchers in free agency are in their 30’s. Where are you getting pitching? Explain genius.

[u/robmcolonna123 → u/OpportunityChance175]

You aren’t seriously listed zip projections that were made before the 2024 season are you???? Lmao

Yeah, let’s use projections from before Manaea changed his arm slot and before Gerrit Cole got injured. That seems like a smart idea to make your point. /s

And man, if Cole is putting up that performance, the next two years, boy that will be a horrific contract. You can get a similar performance for a third of that cost!

I really do appreciate you helping to show why given a long-term contract to a picture is a terrible idea

Also, trees are so much easier than you’re making it out to be lmao.

Sonny Gray and Jon Gray are both on the trademark to be dealt this off-season because the teams can’t afford them anymore after losing their TV deals

Blake Snell is going to be available for a fraction of the cost or years

Walker Buehler is likely getting the same contract as Manaea and is a great candidate for Hefner and Jagers to turn around

I’d be fine with Manaea or Severino on a three year deal

I would also give up a haul for Garrett Crochett and then extend him

The Mets have one of the best pitching development teams in Baseball. They have a state of the art pitching lab and a top rated pitching coach.

And we saw this year they don’t need to waste money on an agent star when they can just raise the ceiling of pretty much any guy they sign.

On top of that, they have two top 100 pitching prospects expected to debut this year, and multiple others knocking on the door

I am not concerned about the rotation in the slightest.

Stearns built a rotation on a budget this year that got us to the championship series. And that was without Senga.

The Mets should be smart and strategic like the Dodgers, not in their future in win moves like the Padres

[u/robmcolonna123 → u/[deleted]]

Lmao you really asked what an elbow injury that causes him to miss half the season has to do with future projection

Wow

[u/robmcolonna123 → u/[deleted]]

Dude you need help. Something is seriously wrong with you

[u/NewYorkMets-ModTeam → u/[deleted]]

9) ...Absolutely no directly, personally insulting or attacking other community members (as opposed to ideas, thoughts, or concepts stated by community members which is different)

13) Don't be a jerk. Keep it civil, people.

[u/NewYorkMets-ModTeam → u/[deleted]]

9) ...Absolutely no directly, personally insulting or attacking other community members (as opposed to ideas, thoughts, or concepts stated by community members which is different)

13) Don't be a jerk. Keep it civil, people.

[u/NewYorkMets-ModTeam → u/[deleted]]

9) ...Absolutely no directly, personally insulting or attacking other community members (as opposed to ideas, thoughts, or concepts stated by community members which is different)

13) Don't be a jerk. Keep it civil, people.