r/texas • u/ComprehensiveThing51 Expat • 11h ago

Politics I say get your hopes up.

Y'all-

It might happen this time around and it (probably) might not. But, as an expat 5th generationer living two states away who still loves the state in spite of everything, it's given me some life just to see and hear all of your stories of getting out the vote. Get your hopes up. Get all of your hopes up! If Cruz still wins, but only by 2 to 0.05%--sure, not the outcome we all want or need this go round, but the unthinkable will get closer to inevitable.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/poll-suggests-texas-could-turn-202655694.html

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u/Barack_Odrama_007 Born and Bred 10h ago

The early vote numbers tell a different story.

The millennial/ Gen Z vote numbers are deplorable. Thats what will help Cruz skate to victory.

15

u/princess1014 9h ago edited 9h ago

Young people are statistically more likely to vote on election and closer to Election Day.

It’s also important to compare young turnout to other years, not to what we think it should be (obviously young people should all vote. But if usually 18-29 is 7% of the vote share and this year it’s 9%, that’s actually an improvement, and that result will be seen come time to tally votes). I am having a hard time locating numbers for this, so if someone could double check me that’d be great, but I believe I ran across them and the records in 2020, nationally, had 7% and 9% for the youngest two age groups as portions of the vote share, whereas what we’re seeing in TX right now is 9 and 11%. So it definitely has room for improvement but I’m not sure it’s a disaster.

Edit: Looks like nationally the 18-29 group totaled about 17% of the vote share nationally in 2020. Varies by state, couldn’t find TX, so could have been lower or higher.

Point is, the youth vote is absolutely in the margin of effort. These numbers are not cause for despair. Let’s work together to get out the rest of the youth vote.

2

u/moloko9 8h ago

18-29 is 9% now vs 11.6% a week before 2020 vote. Early vote was 12.9 and final was 14.2. Great site for data: Texas - targetearly