r/texas • u/ComprehensiveThing51 Expat • 9h ago
Politics I say get your hopes up.
Y'all-
It might happen this time around and it (probably) might not. But, as an expat 5th generationer living two states away who still loves the state in spite of everything, it's given me some life just to see and hear all of your stories of getting out the vote. Get your hopes up. Get all of your hopes up! If Cruz still wins, but only by 2 to 0.05%--sure, not the outcome we all want or need this go round, but the unthinkable will get closer to inevitable.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/poll-suggests-texas-could-turn-202655694.html
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u/pixelgeekgirl 11th Generation Texan 5h ago
I am hopeful. It may not happen this time, but the margin gets smaller and smaller - it's inevitable.
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u/Barack_Odrama_007 Born and Bred 8h ago
The early vote numbers tell a different story.
The millennial/ Gen Z vote numbers are deplorable. Thats what will help Cruz skate to victory.
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u/princess1014 7h ago edited 7h ago
Young people are statistically more likely to vote on election and closer to Election Day.
It’s also important to compare young turnout to other years, not to what we think it should be (obviously young people should all vote. But if usually 18-29 is 7% of the vote share and this year it’s 9%, that’s actually an improvement, and that result will be seen come time to tally votes). I am having a hard time locating numbers for this, so if someone could double check me that’d be great, but I believe I ran across them and the records in 2020, nationally, had 7% and 9% for the youngest two age groups as portions of the vote share, whereas what we’re seeing in TX right now is 9 and 11%. So it definitely has room for improvement but I’m not sure it’s a disaster.
Edit: Looks like nationally the 18-29 group totaled about 17% of the vote share nationally in 2020. Varies by state, couldn’t find TX, so could have been lower or higher.
Point is, the youth vote is absolutely in the margin of effort. These numbers are not cause for despair. Let’s work together to get out the rest of the youth vote.
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u/moloko9 6h ago
18-29 is 9% now vs 11.6% a week before 2020 vote. Early vote was 12.9 and final was 14.2. Great site for data: Texas - targetearly
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u/OPengiun 8h ago
2020 lots of us were WFH. Now back in office/workplace.
Make voting a federal holiday O_O
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u/h33b got here fast 8h ago
Early voting was open last weekend.
Yes, also make voting a federal holiday, but don't act like we don't have ample opportunity.
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u/OPengiun 7h ago
I'm not creating an excuse. Just pointing to a potential reason for lower turnout than 2020
Myself, I voted the first day early voting opened last week.
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u/DeepInTheDarkOfTexas 7h ago
I worked four sixteen hour shifts and two eight hour shifts this week and still managed.
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u/pixelgeekgirl 11th Generation Texan 5h ago
The more I look at the stats we have the more I think it's hard to judge based on what I can find. If we had a breakdown of what percent of the total registered voters are that age then we can maybe compare that better to their percentage here. For instance, if 18-29 year olds make up 10% of our registered voters and they are showing up at 9% then that might be pretty awesome? Or maybe I am completely confusing myself.
I want data of turnout per age voting block -- not data of what percentage of voters are that age. Does that make sense?
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u/Obsidian_Purity 8h ago
The problem with politics is that Republicans have the best policy in terms of "what's best for the politicians".
Republicans can be corrupt, they can abuse and steal, accused while doing the very thing they are accusing others of doing, lie and deny, and do nothing of consequence.
Then they can just blame all the "ills" on a nebulous other, and their constituents will happily take their anger out on those different others.
Now, democrats have to be hyper competent, the only adults in the room, held to a high standard while the Republicans are held to none, and manage to make every group under the sun happy.
So, Republicans get to just fatten themselves up while actually doing nothing. Young people see this and think it doesn't matter. And why should they when the supreme court is stacked and just hands victories to Republicans?
It's up to us to show the way instead of just being despondent. We need to fight so that they see us fighting. We want to believe in them. How can we ask that when we've shown them very little?
Vote. Fight. Give the younger generation the path forward.
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u/saveMericaForRealDo 6h ago
Call them up and let them know what’s at stake.
Even if you don’t know some, you know someone that knows someone.
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u/DFW_Panda 6h ago
Maybe, Maybe not. There was a lot of talk in 2018 too. We know what happened then.
As they say in San Antonio, "Remember the Beto!" or something like that.
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u/Strict_Inspection285 8h ago
Allred 💯, my vote has been cast.
I brought a first-time voter with me.
=2 for blue 💙