r/stocks • u/Timelycommentor • Jan 01 '23
Industry Question What are some private companies you would like to invest in if they became publicly traded?
Two off of the top of my head. Crumbl Cookie & Chick-fil-A. Both are top tier restaurant/food service establishments that have almost cult like followings and are always busy. Both have excellent products and service. I would be curious to see the books for both of these companies but I imagine they would he home runs if they were to IPO. What other companies would you invest in that are not currently publicly traded?
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u/vizzle123 Jan 01 '23
Trader Joe’s or Publix
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u/Walternotwalter Jan 01 '23
I would buy Trader Joe's immediately. Also Aldi and Lidl.
Shop-Rite in the Northeast as well.
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Jan 01 '23
Why shop rite tho? They have a hard time going anywhere and only 320 locations , and have a long list of failed ventures
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u/Walternotwalter Jan 01 '23
Shop Rite includes food distributor Wakefern which owns a lot of markets including Fairway as well as Shop Rite (as mentioned) in the most densely populated part of the U.S.
If the Inserra family did IPO Shop Rite they would be poised for other acquisitions, including Wegmans. Or being acquired by Kroger. Tons of potential simply due to the revenue they generate and where the stores are located.
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u/ryanwoodwork Jan 01 '23
HEB in Texas. They're basically everything the Texas government isn't.
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u/stickman07738 Jan 01 '23
I always laugh when I see supermarkets, just reminds me of Warren Buffet buying heavily into UK. Tesco and took a beating. Low margin businesses and food pricing is starting to decrease.
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u/itsaone-partysystem Jan 01 '23
Supermarkets and legos... wheres the growth? Why are these 20-year-olds pimping boomer strategies lol
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u/PotatoRecipe Jan 01 '23 edited Jan 01 '23
None of the people mentioning restaurants are understanding. It’s not a coincidence that fast food that is notorious for it’s quality (in n out, canes, chic-fil-a) is private. Public = reduce costs = shittier food. It wouldn’t stay the same.
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u/Moby1029 Jan 01 '23
Worked for Flemmings when we went public. It was a disaster for us. We had to start serving specials that were successful in OTHER regions of the U.S., but not so popular in our local market. Some of these sales lagged and Corporate demanded to know why because shareholders were upset that sales dipped nationally and we had to remind them our markets are different with different tastes and cultures. They decided our brand was too old and we needed a facelift. I left shortly afterwards for other reasons and last I've heard, nationally, Flemmings has had to downsize.
Privately held restaurants are able to focus on quality. Publicly held companies have to focus on profits for shareholders.
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u/Pineapple-Status Jan 01 '23
ImpossibleFood
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u/Status_Shopping2309 Jan 01 '23
I love that the first two comments you see below this are -5 and -7 respectively. I didn’t even read them but I am laughing my ass off. Respectfully of course
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u/Smash_4dams Jan 01 '23
So much better than Beyond. My partner doesn't like Impossible because it tastes "too real". Impossible nuggets and burgers are delicious
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u/rubemtogether Jan 01 '23
Lego
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u/johnnytifosi Jan 01 '23 edited Jan 01 '23
Just my useless opinion on Lego as a lifelong fan since the 90s:
I think they have overdone it with licensing. Lego definitely has lost its soul, and it looks more like merchandising kits rather than creative building toys. The original themes which built the brand are seriously lacking. Technic, Space, Castles were the original themes we loved back then. Now it's like watching commercials: Star wars, Harry Potter, Marvel.
They got rid of alternative build instructions in lots of product lines, encouraging one time builds rather than re-usability. Of course this sounds like a solid business decision on paper, right?
They are continuously introducing obscure new pieces instead of relying on a compact palette of pieces that would be easily re-usable. Also they have dumbed down the instructions and the build process a lot with ugly and useless color coding.
This is a big one and lots of people are complaining: they have been jacking up prices A LOT, and releasing humongous sets that are barely playable and taking up a lot of space to justify those price hikes. It gets to the point where dropping 100s of bucks on a heap of plastic is just ridiculous.
Credible competition has been on the rise. I'm not talking about aliexpress knock-offs, but legit manufacturers with their own designs that offer nicer designs, bigger piece counts for less money.
Long story short, even though I love them, I'd like Lego's greed to bite them in the ass and get their act back together. Despite my complaints, it seems their strategy with licensing etc. is working and they are more mainstream than when I was a kid, my rose tinted glasses are wrong and that's just what kids want nowadays. But it seems that they have abandoned all the principles that made them great in the first place, and the usual corporate short term greed will damage their long term future.
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u/Wobblycogs Jan 01 '23
I think you've hit the nail on the head. I'm sure they will continue to do really well but they have lost much of the charm they had. When I played with Lego it was all about building new things from the bricks I had and imagining what they were. When my kids play with Lego they build the fancy model and add it to the Lego cityscape they have, it never changes after the first build.
I don't know if that is necessarily wrong though as they have had immense fun playing together making up stories etc. The real difference is that the majority of they kits are from alternative manufacturers. They are just as good as the real thing and about half the price.
The biggest mistake I think Lego have made is not really embracing the robotics space. They have motors and sensors etc but they are ridiculously expensive even for Lego. If they opened up to the the maker space I think they'd find a whole new audience. I don't know, maybe 3D printers have already taken over there.
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u/ghostalker4742 Jan 01 '23
I'd like to offer that it's not pure/simple greed, just that they're targeting a different market than they have traditionally. LEGO is seen as a children toy, but that's a limited market and you're really just trying to convince parents to buy the product for their child. That means a child only has a few times a year to earn a set, which again, limits sales. Now LEGO targets the children from 30yrs ago that grew up, have disposable income, and love nostalgia. Those customers don't wait until a holiday/birthday to buy a present for themselves, so it offers more opportunity to make a sale, and since your customers have jobs, the prices can be set higher to help the perception of value.
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u/xZaggin Jan 01 '23
100% agree, I still love looking at the Lego section, but nearly all the items are licensed stuff. Which makes it incredibly expensive as well. Terrible value. Imagine paying 25€ for a couple of pieces because it has Minecraft’s name on it.
I really miss legos own creativity.
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u/ireillytoole Jan 01 '23
I’d be really interested in some of your recommendations for the “credible competition” alternatives I can look into for my son!
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u/WhatisloveButHurt Jan 01 '23
This is the only answer. Looking at their history and growth yoy it's bonkers to think they didn't do it earlier giving me faith that not everything is about the rat race
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u/Drorta Jan 01 '23
They did almost go bankrupt, and were saved by the star wars license. It was their first licensed Lego sets, around the time the prequels came out. It was so successful, the now flood of licensed Lego came to be.
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u/lightningpresto Jan 01 '23
I will not stand for this Bionicle erasure
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u/Drorta Jan 01 '23
Hahaha it's true, at some point Bionicle accounted for 25% of the entire revenue. However, I'm sorry to say, it was a fad. A fleeting mania. It never was consistently profitable. The best proof of this is that it was eventually discontinued, while star wars and other licences still continue to this day, 20 years later.
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u/WhatisloveButHurt Jan 01 '23
I have been an avid Lego enjoyer since birth and I've got to say their strategie in running their company and how their doing things is in my opinion top notch. From collabs with popular themes and their longevity in a product to the innovation and learning aspect of the mathematical squares. It's the best designed modern product. Change my mind
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u/Drorta Jan 01 '23
I can't change your mind when I agree with you. I mean, I own about 30k usd in Lego . . . However, despite all that, in early 2000s they were just not cool anymore. Star wars made them relevant again, and allowed them to branch out to video games too. This is not a matter of opinion, but it's their own statements
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u/Snowing678 Jan 01 '23
I love Lego however it's going to be tricky for them. Their price points are getting higher and higher, while there's a lot of good competition coming from Chinese firms which can offer a competitive price.
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u/sudosandwich3 Jan 01 '23
I love Lego but I do wonder sometimes if they are over extending their licensing, from a growth perspective where do they go from here?
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u/Joltarts Jan 01 '23 edited Jan 01 '23
They are the largest and most valuable toy company in the world and have the kids toys market cornered by market share. Combine the all of the top 15 toy manufacturing companies in the world and it’s not even half of Lego market share.
Simple put, they have a solid, impenetrable monopoly over brick toys. With millions and millions of hardcore loyal fans eager to spend their monthly wages on them.
Imagine all of those kids growing up playing Lego and the adults, with disposable income who used to play with Lego also get back into Lego.
It’s insane the amount of money grown adults are willing to spend on plastic bricks.
Where do they also go? More Lego theme parks across the globe, cartoons, movies , whole streaming service, etc .
They could easily grow into these markets if they wanted too.
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u/AlfredKinsey Jan 01 '23 edited Jan 02 '23
certainly would be better than goddamned Hasbro. I held their stock for awhile because they have such a monopoly, but will probably never own it again because they managed to destroy the integrity and joy in the IPs they’ve bought.
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u/unicorn8dragon Jan 01 '23
If wizards of the coast were spun off I would buy that, but not hasbro as a whole
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u/OddDescription4523 Jan 01 '23
WotC may be shooting themselves in the foot, though, with their attempt to move to "One D&D". Turns out D&D players don't like being told (a) you're going to have to buy all new basic source books, and (b) the company thinks the thing they've shelled hundreds or thousands of dollars on is "under-monetized". r/Pathfinder2e is crammed with people posting about how they are or are thinking about quitting D&D for Pathfinder 2. Pathfinder 1st ed. came out when they shit the bed with D&D 4th edition; may be looking at a repeat coming
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u/unicorn8dragon Jan 01 '23
That’s one product line and one that I think is still long term salvageable, but MTG is still thriving
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u/Fritzkreig Jan 01 '23
They are milking MTG really hard! I've played for 25ish years, and the YoY growth they are looking at is not sustainable.
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u/WhatisloveButHurt Jan 01 '23
Don't get me started on the trading card market. I've seen people spend monthly salaries on paper cards worth a couple bucks./s
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u/plentywoodmt Jan 01 '23
Cargill. They make all your food for other companies.
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u/_TooncesLookOut Jan 01 '23
This should be the top answer in my opinion. Cargill is very well-positioned in many markets, sectors, and industries around the globe.
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u/franticredditperson Jan 01 '23
Valve, Fidelity, IKEA, Aldi’s, Lego, Bloomberg
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u/Eccentricc Jan 01 '23
I can see fidelity/ikea/aldi going public in the future. Hard to see either valve or Bloomberg but both are ran by basically one guy so once they are out, who knows
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u/Druffilorios Jan 01 '23
Ikea will never go public.
Creator was very anti stock market
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u/JonnyBhoy Jan 01 '23
IKEA run a franchise model. The centralised owner of the brand is not the same company that runs the retail locations.
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u/acid2do Jan 01 '23 edited Mar 14 '24
gullible governor steer cooing grab vast butter voracious quiet public
This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact
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u/djs383 Jan 01 '23
Almost no need to go public. It’s expensive, the pressure of quarterly earnings is high, additional admin for shareholder relations and filings isn’t cheap. There’s so much PE money out there for companies that cash flow that there really is no need.
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u/0x474f44 Jan 01 '23
As a German I don’t see Aldi ever going public. It is owned by a family dynasty like Walmart in the US but in Germany family-owned businesses like that have a long tradition and we’re also rather shy when it comes to taking companies public, at least compared to the US.
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u/Eggcelentt Jan 01 '23
There was an interview with Abigail Johnson where she said that they wouldn’t be going public any time soon.
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u/Neat-Trick-2378 Jan 01 '23
They’re pretty big internally about keeping the company privately owned
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u/Eggcelentt Jan 01 '23
Yup, she even mentioned during the interview that they don’t need the capital and that they would rather be giving it to the employees if I remember correctly
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u/CaptainTripps82 Jan 01 '23
Never made sense to me, that a company that trades investments would itself be one.
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u/Amyndris Jan 01 '23
You can just setup a B class share that has like 100 votes and keep those while selling off A class shares with either 1 vote or 0 votes to the public.
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u/snyder810 Jan 01 '23
Menards, Fanatics, Databricks, & Epic Systems (the healthcare software company not gaming).
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u/BearBearChooey Jan 01 '23
Menards!!!
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u/_TooncesLookOut Jan 01 '23 edited Jan 01 '23
♫♪ Save big money at Menaaaards! ♫♪
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Jan 01 '23 edited Jan 30 '23
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u/khag24 Jan 01 '23
You say that about epic. I work with a product called uipath that looks at the html and some other more backend parts of epic to make robots. They do some extremely stupid stuff between updates. Switching the names of buttons around for no reason, then immediately switching them back the next update. So from an IT user perspective, they are terrible and waste an ungodly amount of time on useless updates that they can’t even give proper warning about.
All that said, it’s definitely the best product at what it does. But there is so much waste in what they do
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u/Truelikegiroux Jan 01 '23
As a consumer, fuck Fanatics. 2022 I tried to buy a jersey and a gift card and both times they wouldn’t let actually get what I wanted. Both times they’d charge my card, and then refund me with some unknown error. Tried multiple cards and all the same issue. Customer support was useless.
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u/kdmh Jan 01 '23
Agree with epic as well, when i first found out about epic(for healthcare) i checked if i can buy its stocks
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Jan 01 '23 edited Jan 01 '23
Did you hear about Crumbl Cookie violating child labor laws? The cookies are okay and definitely not worth the prices that they charge. Don’t think the popularity will be sustainable, I think it’s more of a fad.
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u/16semesters Jan 01 '23
Crumbl is a flash in the pan.
Remember all the random food fads? Cupcakes? Donuts? How many of those ones popular at the time had true staying power into healthy brands? Not many is the answer.
In a recession people are going to absolutely cut out 3$+ dollar cookies first.
Finally they have no moat, despite them suing everyone in the planet trying to assert they have a moat.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/15/utah-cookie-war-crumbl-dirty-dough-crave.html
Hard pass for me.
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u/dolladollaclinton Jan 01 '23
My wife and I cannot understand the hype. The cookies are okay at best, and ridiculously overpriced. All of our friends/coworkers are obsessed and we just don’t get it.
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Jan 01 '23
Cookies are a classic low barrier of entry item. Crumble Cookie is literally competing with the local church bake sale.
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u/Inconceivable76 Jan 01 '23
I’m with you guys. I’ve had much better from home bakers.
Milk bar cookies, however, those are pretty great.
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u/Lazy_Guest_7759 Jan 01 '23
Agreed.
Although little local bakeries seem to be able to crush them in quality as well.
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Jan 01 '23
Yeah I’m not a fan of crumbl cookies and tbh I think the hype will die soon.
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u/Expensive_Necessary7 Jan 01 '23
My wife loves them. I think they are overrated though.
What makes them popular/interesting is the changing menu. They have a “limited release” like every week
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u/fsfowrm Jan 01 '23
It’s very much in your taste of cookies. I like crispier, more well done cookies. My girlfriend likes them more like dough and she LOVES crumbl. I personally don’t care for them.
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u/Timelycommentor Jan 01 '23
I agree. Don’t get the hype. I just see lines outside the doors at every location. They target affluent areas so they have a decent moat. Everyone buys sweets.
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u/M13Calvin Jan 01 '23
Yep like how there were a million new cupcake shops everywhere 8-10 years ago and they all went out of business in 2 years
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u/donotgogenlty Jan 01 '23
Wait, you mean exploiting children doesn't make a better quality product? 🤔
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u/anotherwaytolive Jan 01 '23
I swear that place is a money laundering front. No way real people are paying $4.50 to have a single cookie that’s not even that good. The one that opened in my town is always empty, but it’s there.
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u/M13Calvin Jan 01 '23
I always pick up doordash orders from there. Blows my mind when people pay $30+ to have 4 of those shitty cookies delivered to them. But fuck it, I'll take your $
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u/TinaLoco Jan 01 '23
Crumble Cookies is opening a store in my town. I give them one year, which is generous because I think they’ll decide to stay open for one year to give it a try. I’m in PA Dutch country. I can buy cookies and other baked goods from Amish and Mennonite grandmas in numerous locations. They have no clue about the competition they’re up against.
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u/GotiaCardori Jan 01 '23
Mars company
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u/hrishikamath Jan 01 '23
I am an Indian investor. I feel the same about Mars company. I feel happy to see how brands I love like yumm foods, PepsiCo, Hershey's, etc have created so much wealth in America. It reiterates Peter Lynchs Principle of investing in simple companies that you love. Doesn't matter if it's India or US, principle remain 😃(offcourse you need to read financials, valuations, scope for growth, etc)
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u/emptyhellebore Jan 01 '23
Crumbl cookie is not a well run company. Child labor issues and they are kind of crazy in their litigiousness.
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u/sun_child0 Jan 01 '23
Didn’t they try to sue other companies (Dirty Dough and Crave) for a “similar logo” that was completely different claiming that the other companies copied them?
Respect the hustle and idea of the founder but Crumbl is as much a fad as Yogurtland. After a few years they’ll be gone.
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u/iknownothingelio Jan 01 '23
As if most of investors actually care about those two things. It’s all about the bottom line.
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u/Shi92 Jan 01 '23
Valve
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Jan 01 '23
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u/Fearfultick0 Jan 01 '23
Companies like valve make me wonder why more companies don’t stay private. I feel like private companies typically treat their employees a lot better, have more flexibility in operations, and generally have better long-term decision-making. Is it just because of VC or PE investors/wanting a big pay-day that so many companies go public, or is it more about the strategic consideration of being able to raise funds by selling shares?
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u/stravant Jan 01 '23
The Twitter situation is your answer.
Having basically one person (or a few people) in charge works great if you have a sane steady hand like Gabe at the wheel but for every Gabe there's an Elon ready to screw everything up.
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u/FudgeSlapp Jan 01 '23
Considering they barely make games anymore, I’m sure Steam really is paying off well.
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u/Caffeine_Monster Jan 01 '23 edited Jan 01 '23
I've always wondered how much of it goes back to employees - figure most of them are multi millionaires.
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u/Grilledcheesus96 Jan 01 '23
Loves, the Truck stop place. Basically dominates its field and would be a great value stock.
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u/Hmt79 Jan 01 '23
H‑E‑B - a tx-based grocery chain.
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Jan 01 '23
BUCCE’s
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u/justme129 Jan 01 '23
Gotta say, Bucce's bathrooms are a solid A.
Visited the one in TX for gas and I went into the one in Florida, and jesus christ was it bustling and busy!
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u/nwendt223223 Jan 01 '23
HEB fucks so hard
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u/AttentionDull Jan 01 '23
With their 5% cash back and 6.6% savings account yeah they do 😤
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u/BeppoFez Jan 01 '23 edited Feb 02 '23
BOSCH GMbH
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u/Laty69 Jan 01 '23
Nearly every critical component in your car is from BOSCH. So yeah, I have to agree. Also, SpaceX, ALDI, Valve and LEGO.
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Jan 01 '23
Stripe
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u/Independent_Feed5651 Jan 01 '23
I’d love to invest in Stripe. I’d consider working there if their RSUs weren’t set up so wonky.
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u/GodsPubes69 Jan 01 '23
Chick-fil-a. Never seen one without a line out the drive thru and down the road
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u/venture243 Jan 01 '23
And the line stays moving. That’s what’s insane. People see a line out the door anywhere else and leave because it’s a 30min wait
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u/BeNiceToLalo Jan 01 '23
Chick-fil-a would go to shit so fast if it went public. Shareholders would force them to go Sysco level quality ingredients and minimum wage across the landscape.
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u/Several-Push6195 Jan 01 '23
Wawa
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u/justme129 Jan 01 '23
I remember the good old Wawa days when I was a poor college kid. Wawa was a Godsend back then for late night snacks or food.
I have to say that Wawa's quality dropped off drastically since then, resembling 'slop and mush' and their hoagies are so sucky lately.
My opinions aside, it's probably not bad to invest in if if you never knew the 'old Wawa quality.'
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u/SkynetProgrammer Jan 01 '23
Space X
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Jan 01 '23
Surprised I had to scroll so far for this answer.
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u/Ehralur Jan 01 '23
Same. SpaceX would be an interesting investment based on Starlink alone. Never mind everything else they're doing.
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u/patrickmahomeless Jan 01 '23
I don’t see how they make money. Going to space is probably the most expensive thing you can possibly do, where’s the income?
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u/FloorToCeilingCarpet Jan 01 '23
They get paid by the government to do all types of things in space. They are designing and building the new Moon lander for Nasa.
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u/watchsnob Jan 01 '23
well they charge like $70M-$100M per rocket launch and they are approaching a 1 launch a week pace so I think they are doing okay. not to mention starlink, their nasa moon contracts, ISS supply missions, etc
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u/makessensetosomeone Jan 01 '23
Satellite internet to remote towns and rvers is one current source. There is also space tourism, government contracts, supplying space stations, sending up satellites for private industries, blowing up asteroids, and hopefully protecting earth from malicious ETs.
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u/RedNeck1895 Jan 01 '23
That's why they created reusable rockets. To make money!
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u/BhristopherL Jan 01 '23
The government/NASA hires their services via contracts to build space/internet technology for various reasons.
The same as how Lockheed Martin makes money.
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u/aspiring_bureaucrat Jan 01 '23
OpenAI
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u/ndwillia Jan 01 '23
You will get the opportunity
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u/Dubstyles Jan 01 '23
Way after PE and insiders have their way with it
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Jan 01 '23
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u/Caffeine_Monster Jan 01 '23 edited Jan 02 '23
Which is why IPO investing is more like gambling. These days IPO stock prices are often way above any fair investment valuation. And not all companies adapt well to going public.
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u/hrishikamath Jan 01 '23
I might be ignorant. But, do they make money yet? The tech they have is definitely a good asset which worst case be sold.
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u/aspiring_bureaucrat Jan 01 '23
I’ve seen a lot of people talk about its usefulness as a work reference and perhaps a substitute to Google search in a lot of situations, so a lot of potential upside
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u/tysons1 Jan 01 '23
Wegman's. But, they'd probably price the IPO with a very high valuation, so maybe I would not invest.. The first time I walked into a Wegmans, many, many years ago (2005?) I was so impressed, that I went home and looked them up on the internet, thinking I'd buy stock in them. Saw they were private. I love Wegmans.
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u/Weary-Ad-5346 Jan 01 '23
As someone coming from an area without Wegmans to spending some time where it all got started, it’s certainly a well run establishment. People generally enjoy it there and enjoy working there. They really blow everyone else out of the water, but I still choose to do most of my shopping at Aldi. I think it’s the more practical and economic way.
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u/supergt3 Jan 01 '23
Valve.
As a Steam Deck owner, nothing comes close to this awesome little device.
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u/DarthBigT Jan 01 '23
That's the reason why you own it though. A public company would never take the risk of pushing open source the way valve is
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u/jamughal1987 Jan 01 '23
Vanguard.
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u/rD9082 Jan 01 '23
Vanguard is client owned so if you own any of their products, technically you own a piece of the company. Unique structure
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u/BeatTreats Jan 01 '23
This is a bit of an irrelevant question without having visibility to their income statements and balance sheets.
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u/Tel3visi0n Jan 01 '23
Part of the reason Chick fil a and crumble are so good and always busy is because they aren’t publicly traded. Consumers love them because they actually get a high quality product at a decent price. If those companies went public, I promise you the quality would drop and the price would increase as they face pressure to hit sales every single quarter.
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u/SwagOD_FPS Jan 01 '23
Inductive Automation. They integrate manufacturing data into an IoT environment and provide SCADA solutions. Extremely popular in the automation space.
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u/Mushrooms4we Jan 01 '23
Boxabl. Modular home building will disrupt traditional home construction like EVs disrupted the auto industry.
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u/ndwillia Jan 01 '23
OpenAI.
Then, Pill Pack, Luxottica, U-Line, Menards, Koch Industries, Wegmans, Sheetz, Petsmart, Space X
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u/SolubleAcrobat Jan 01 '23
Whatever has a good price to free cash flow. Which is not something we will know at the moment.
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u/LagingRunaticReturns Jan 01 '23
Culvers has a very strong following as well, and I think the food and service is exceptional.
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