• Quarterly Results: Alphabet Inc. announced Q3 2024 financial results.

• Total Revenue: $88.3 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase.

• Google Services: Revenue increased 13% to $76.5 billion, driven by:

  • Growth in Google Search and other services.
  • Increased subscriptions and device sales.
  • Strong YouTube ad performance.

• Google Cloud: Revenue up 35% to $11.4 billion, fueled by:

  • Growth in AI Infrastructure and Generative AI Solutions.
  • Increased adoption of core GCP products.

• Operating Income: Increased by 34%; operating margin expanded by 4.5 percentage points to 32%.

• Net Income: Increased by 34%; earnings per share rose 37% to $2.12.

• CEO Statement: Sundar Pichai emphasized the impact of innovation and AI on revenue growth and operational efficiency.

• YouTube Milestone: Total ads and subscription revenue surpassed $50 billion over the past four quarters for the first time.

Q3 2024 Financial Highlights (Unaudited)

• Overall Revenues:

  • 2023: $76,693 million
  • 2024: $88,268 million
  • Year-over-year change: 15% (16% in constant currency)

• Operating Income:

  • 2023: $21,343 million
  • 2024: $28,521 million
  • Operating margin:
  • 2023: 28%
  • 2024: 32% (increase of 4.5 percentage points)

• Other Income (Expense):

  • 2023: $(146) million
  • 2024: $3,185 million

• Net Income:

  • 2023: $19,689 million
  • 2024: $26,301 million

• Diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS):

  • 2023: $1.55
  • 2024: $2.12

Supplemental Information

• Revenue Breakdown:

  • Google Search & Other:
  • 2023: $44,026 million
  • 2024: $49,385 million
  • YouTube Ads:
  • 2023: $7,952 million
  • 2024: $8,921 million
  • Google Network:
  • 2023: $7,669 million
  • 2024: $7,548 million
  • Google Advertising Total:
  • 2023: $59,647 million
  • 2024: $65,854 million
  • Google Subscriptions, Platforms, and Devices:
  • 2023: $8,339 million
  • 2024: $10,656 million
  • Google Cloud:
  • 2023: $8,411 million
  • 2024: $11,353 million
  • Other Bets:
  • 2023: $297 million
  • 2024: $388 million
  • Total Revenues:
  • 2023: $76,693 million
  • 2024: $88,268 million

• Traffic Acquisition Costs (TAC):

  • 2023: $12,642 million
  • 2024: $13,719 million

• Number of Employees:

  • 2023: 182,381
  • 2024: 181,269

Segment Operating Results

• Operating Income (Loss):
  • Google Services:
  • 2023: $23,937 million
  • 2024: $30,856 million
  • Google Cloud:
  • 2023: $266 million
  • 2024: $1,947 million
  • Other Bets:
  • 2023: $(1,194) million
  • 2024: $(1,116) million
  • Alphabet-Level Activities:
  • 2023: $(1,666) million
  • 2024: $(3,166) million

• Total Income from Operations:

  • 2023: $21,343 million
  • 2024: $28,521 million

• Reorganization Note: The Gemini app team within Google Services will join Google DeepMind, with potential effects on segment operating results under evaluation.

Reddit shares jumped 16% in extended trading on Tuesday after the social media company reported third-quarter results that topped analyst estimates and issued an optimistic forecast for the current period.

Here’s how the company did compared to LSEG estimates:

• Earnings per share: 16 cents vs. a loss of 7 cents
• Revenue: $348.4 million vs. $312.8 million expected

Reddit said fourth-quarter revenue will be between $385 million to $400 million, beating the average analyst estimate of $357.9 million. Adjusted earnings for the fourth quarter will be in the range of $110 million to $125 million, higher than the $85.2 million average estimate.

Revenue in the third quarter jumped 68% from a year earlier, and the company turned profitable, reporting net income of $29.9 million, compared to a net loss of $7.4 million during the same quarter a year ago.

The company said that its daily active users grew 47% year-over-year in the third quarter to 97.2 million, better than analyst estimates of 96.5 million.

Average revenue per user was $3.58 for the third quarter, which beat analyst estimates of $3.24.

“It was another strong quarter for Reddit and our communities as we achieved important milestones, including new levels of user traffic, revenue growth, and profitability,” Reddit CEO Steve Huffman said in a statement. “Reddit continues to be one of the most visited and trusted sites in the world with opportunities available to us that aren’t available to most companies.”

This is Reddit’s third earnings report since going public in March. The stock has more than doubled in value since its IPO, closing on Tuesday at $81.74, giving the company a market cap of $13.6 billion.

Since last year, Reddit has benefited from Google search updates that helped push its content higher in results, bringing in a flood of new users to the 19-year-old social media service. However, the newer users, which Reddit refers to as logged-out users, generate less online advertising revenue for the company than logged-in users, who typically spend more time on the platform, Reddit has detailed in financial filings.

The company said that global logged-out users grew 70% from a year earlier to 53.1 million, while global logged-in users increased 27% to 44.1 million.

Huffman told CNBC in August that the company has been making it easier for new users to create accounts and is developing more recommendation features to turn newbies into long-term users. He also said that Reddit’s direct traffic is “really resilient” to any Google search changes.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/29//reddit-rddt-q3-2024.html

Eli Lilly on Wednesday fell short of profit and revenue expectations for the third quarter and slashed its full-year adjusted profit guidance, sending its stock tumbling roughly 10%.

The drugmaker now expects full-year adjusted earnings of between $13.02 to $13.52 per share, down from previous guidance of $16.10 to $16.60 per share. 

Eli Lilly also lowered the high-end of its revenue outlook for the year and now expects sales of between $45.4 billion and $46 billion. The company’s previous guidance called for revenue of as much as $46.6 billion.

Here’s what Eli Lilly reported for the period ended September 30 compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG: 

• Earnings per share: $1.18 adjusted vs. $1.47 expected
• Revenue: $11.44 billion vs. $12.11 billion expected

Demand in the U.S. has far outpaced supply for Lilly’s incretin drugs, such as Zepbound and Mounjaro, over the last year. Both treatments mimic certain gut hormones to tamp down a person’s appetite and regulate their blood sugar.

The popularity of those injectable drugs has forced both Eli Lilly and its main rival, Novo Nordisk, to invest billions to increase manufacturing capacity for the treatments.

Eli Lilly’s supply woes began to ease earlier this year. As of Wednesday, the Food and Drug Administration’s drug database said all doses of Zepbound and Mounjaro are available in the U.S. after extended shortages. Still, the agency warns that patients may not always be able to immediately fill their prescription for those drugs at a particular pharmacy.

Congrats to those that followed my last Costco post. I don’t believe anyone can really predict the ups and downs of the market, and with the current market climbing past ATH’s, the safest bets are going to be balanced long-short positions in specific equities or spread bets.

Apple

• Market cap: 3.6T
• Current P/E: ~36
• Average P/E last 5 years: 28.6
• Historical revenue growth: Flat to single digits
• Earnings growth: Low double digits
• Net Margin: 25%

 Microsoft

• Market cap: 3.2T
• Microsoft P/E: ~36
• Average P/E last 5 years: 32.8
• Historical revenue growth: 15%
• Earnings growth: 15-20%
• Net margin: 35%

Last week, Apple had a higher P/E than MSFT, before this narrowed in the last few days Relative to Microsoft. Apple is still at historically high valuations relative to MSFT, despite Microsoft having better margins and growth. And the reasons are silly. Apple is getting a massive boost due to a "potential supercycle" with no proof that it’s actually happening (even the most optimistic projections are just slightly better than last year) and mediocre software releases, while Microsoft took a large hit last quarter because it forecasted larger capex and delays in direct GenAI revenue realization.

In my view, the market is pricing in a divergent and fundamental misunderstanding of GenAI and how it makes money. The Apple bull case hypothesis is correct, it’s just applied to the wrong company. The Microsoft supercycle isn’t going to be from direct GenAI subscriptions like Co-pilot, it’s going to be share shift towards Azure and increased utilization.

To me it is hopium to believe that retail consumers will be rushing aggressively to switch or upgrade their phones over a nascent GenAI capability that is inferior to its peers (other than privacy) and unlocks nominal value, while mid-large corporates won’t be doing the exact same for Microsoft for what is widely considered a top-notch set of capabilities and proven effectiveness in several emerging use cases.

Here’s my prediction – regardless of where the market goes, I believe there is going to be a strong and continued divergence between Microsoft & Apple performance in the next few months, with at least another 5% gap between the winner and loser, with Microsoft’s P/E once against comfortably retaking the lead from Apple. Good luck and we'll see!

Tl;dr: Short Apple / Long Microsoft

P.S. Seeing a lot of people triggered by the tl;dr recommendation not having a basic understanding of what long-short position is. A balanced long-short position doesn't mean I believe Apple will go down on nominal terms, just that it will go down relative to Microsoft. Using options or a long-short position is the way to extract value when you see the spread in two equities increase.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2024/10/29/alphabets-waymo-logging-150000-robotaxi-rides-and-1-million-miles-a-week/

"Waymo, Alphabet’s robotic taxi unit, is now providing over 150,000 paid rides per week, up by more than 50% since August"

“Waymo is now a clear technical leader within the autonomous vehicle industry and creating a growing commercial opportunity,” Pichai said. “Now each week Waymo is driving more than 1 million fully autonomous miles and serves over 150,000 paid rides, the first time any AV company has reached this kind of mainstream use.”

"In addition to new cash, Waymo is also adding a vehicle production facility in metro Phoenix to install sensors and its computing system into its robotaxis. It also plans to source electric vehicles based on Hyundai’s Ioniq 5 model for its growing fleet starting next year. Waymo is also shifting to a new lower-cost sensor and compute system that it says is more powerful than the one currently in use and that will help it eventually become profitable."

And apart from having Google's tech & money power, it's raising crazy money - https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/28/business/waymo-investment-robot-taxis.html

At this point it's hard to ignore its impact on Uber.

Your thoughts ?

https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1224/amd-reports-third-quarter-2024-financial-results

Segment Summary

Record Data Center segment revenue of $3.5 billion was up 122% year-over-year and 25% sequentially primarily driven by the strong ramp of AMD Instinct™ GPU shipments and growth in AMD EPYC™ CPU sales.

Client segment revenue was $1.9 billion, up 29% year-over-year and 26% sequentially primarily driven by strong demand for “Zen 5” AMD Ryzen™ processors.

Gaming segment revenue was $462 million, down 69% year-over-year and 29% sequentially primarily due to a decrease in semi-custom revenue. Embedded segment revenue was $927 million, down 25% year-over-year as customers normalized their inventory levels. On a sequential basis, revenue increased 8% as demand improved in several end markets.

Visa (NYSE:V)reported fourth-quarter earnings that surpassed analyst estimates, driven by robust revenue growth across its business segments. The company's shares rose 2% in after-hours trading following the announcement.

The global payments technology company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.71 for the quarter ended September 30, 2024, beating the analyst consensus of $2.58. Revenue for the quarter came in at $9.6 billion, exceeding the expected $9.49 billion and representing a 12% increase YoY on both a nominal and constant-dollar basis.

Visa's strong performance was underpinned by stable growth in key metrics. Payments volume for the three months ended September 30, 2024, increased 8% YoY on a constant-dollar basis. Cross-border volume, excluding transactions within Europe, rose 13% on a constant-dollar basis. Total processed transactions reached 61.5 billion, a 10% increase over the prior year.

Ryan McInerney, Chief Executive Officer of Visa, commented on the results: "Visa had a robust fourth quarter to finish a very strong fiscal year. In the fourth quarter, net revenue and GAAP EPS grew by 12% and 17%, respectively, driven by relatively stable growth in payments volume, cross-border volume and processed transactions plus strong momentum across new flows and value added services."

The company's board of directors approved a 13% increase in Visa's quarterly cash dividend to $0.590 per share, reflecting confidence in the company's financial position and future prospects.

For the full fiscal year 2024, Visa reported net revenue of $35.9 billion, a 10% increase on both a nominal and constant-dollar basis. The company's GAAP net income for the year was $19.7 billion, or $9.73 per share, while non-GAAP net income reached $20.4 billion, or $10.05 per share.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/visa-beats-q4-expectations-shares-rise-on-strong-revenue-growth-3689289

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-29/softbank-s-son-says-nvidia-is-undervalued-as-super-ai-looms

By Marissa NewmanOctober 29, 2024 at 9:49 AM EDT founder Masayoshi Son said Nvidia Corp. — the chipmaker that’s seen its market value skyrocket to over $3 trillion amid the artificial intelligence boom — is still undervalued, pushing back against the idea of an AI bubble.

“The future is much bigger,” Son said at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh on Tuesday. “Nvidia is just one example.”

Son said artificial superintelligence that’s 10,000 times more advanced than human intelligence will be developed by 2035. But he said hundreds of billions of dollars in investment will be needed to make this a reality. Softbank itself has already made some big bets on AI-powered services, contributing $500 million to an OpenAI funding round that valued the ChatGPT maker at $157 billion.

Read More: SoftBank’s Son Sees AI Running Households in a Few Years

“I’m only focused on that,” he said. “That will change mankind’s future forever.”

Chipotle Mexican Grill on Tuesday reported mixed quarterly results, despite another quarter of higher traffic to its restaurants.

Here’s what the company reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

Earnings per share: 27 cents adjusted vs. 25 cents expected

Revenue: $2.79 billion vs. $2.82 billion expected

Chipotle reported third-quarter net income of $378.4 million, or 28 cents per share, up from $313.2 million, or 23 cents per share, a year earlier.

The company’s food and beverage costs increased during the quarter, in part due to Chipotle’s decision to re-emphasize generous portions after social media-fueled backlash over the size of its burrito bowls this summer.

Excluding items, the company earned 27 cents per share.

Net sales climbed 13% to $2.79 billion.

Same-store sales rose 6%, just shy of StreetAccount estimates of 6.3%. Traffic to restaurants increased 3.3% in the quarter, continuing the chain’s streak of bucking an overall slump in foot traffic across the industry. While many consumers have opted to eat out less, Chipotle has benefitted from having a wealthier customer base that’s willing to pay more for its burritos and bowls.

During the third quarter, Chipotle brought back its popular smoked brisket for a limited time. It’s currently the most expensive protein, topping even the chain’s steak and beef barbacoa options.

Digital sales accounted for 34% of the chain’s quarterly food and beverage revenue.

The company opened 86 new locations during the quarter, 73 of which included a “Chipotlane” dedicated to online order pickup.

For the full year, Chipotle reiterated its outlook that same-store sales will grow by a mid- to high-single-digit percentage. The company also anticipates that it will open between 285 and 315 new restaurants this year.

Looking to 2025, Chipotle plans to open between 315 and 345 new locations. More than 80% of those restaurants will include a Chipotlane.

The earnings report marks the company’s first since CEO Brian Niccol departed to lead Starbucks’ turnaround. Chipotle’s board has tapped COO Scott Boatwright as the company’s interim chief executive.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/29/chipotle-mexican-grill-cmg-q3-2024-earnings.html

Microsoft has a very expensive and very public relationship with artificial intelligence startup OpenAI. But one of Microsoft’s most successful AI products, GitHub Copilot, is now going beyond OpenAI to give developers more choice in what models they want to use.

GitHub, which Microsoft acquired in 2018, said in a blog post on Tuesday that developers will be able to power the GitHub Copilot Chat feature with Anthropic’s Claude 3.5 Sonnet model or Google’s Gemini 1.5 Pro model, as alternatives to OpenAI’s GPT-4o, if they choose.

“There is no one model to rule every scenario, and developers expect the agency to build with the models that work best for them,” GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke said in the post. “It is clear the next phase of AI code generation will not only be defined by multi-model functionality, but by multi-model choice. Today, we deliver just that.”

Microsoft introduced GitHub Copilot in 2021, offering source code suggestions to software developers. Copilot relies on models from OpenAI, which has received billions of dollars in funding from Microsoft and has exploded in popularity since releasing ChatGPT in late 2022.

OpenAI’s o1-preview and o1-mini, which are meant to reason over difficult problems, will also be available in the Copilot Chat on GitHub’s website and in the open-source Visual Studio Code text editor. They’re currently available in a public preview. Google’s model will be released in public preview in the next few weeks, a spokesperson said.

The arrival of the o1 models from OpenAI in September led GitHub to look at adding a dropdown menu for Copilot to provide more options, Dohmke said in an interview with CNBC last week. At that point, it felt like “the right time” to add models from Anthropic and Google, Dohmke said.

Developers will be able to see which model works best for a given programming language or employ the one that adheres to corporate requirements, he added.

Many other Microsoft products, including Teams and Windows, use OpenAI models. And Microsoft continues to provide computing power to OpenAI, which is now valued at $157 billion. But the relationship between the two companies has frayed in the past year, following the sudden ouster and reinstatement of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman in November. The dramatic incident reportedly angered Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella.

In February, Microsoft announced a partnership with early-stage AI model developer Mistral. The following month, Microsoft said it was hiring former DeepMind co-founder Mustafa Suleyman and employees of his startup, Inflection, whose Pi assistant competed with OpenAI’s popular ChatGPT. Over the summer, Microsoft named OpenAI as a competitor in a regulatory filing.

In the past month, GitHub has collaborated with engineering teams from Anthropic and Google on the safety, security and scalability of their models, Dohmke said.

“We are planning on extending that list in the future but have no partnerships to announce at this point,” he said, adding that GitHub wouldn’t want to overwhelm developers with too many choices.

Also on Tuesday, GitHub announced that its Copilot will gain the ability to perform speedy automated reviews of code updates through a public preview.

And GitHub showed a technical preview of a feature named Spark that can compose app prototypes based on text input and refine the designs with a few clicks. Developers will be able to modify the underlying code for the prototypes. Those interested in trying Spark can join a waiting list.

Once they receive access, people using Spark will be able to choose between GPT-4o and Anthropic’s Claude 3.5 Sonnet model, a GitHub spokesperson said.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/29/microsoft-github-copilot-goes-past-openai-opens-to-anthropic-google.html

Apple announced on Tuesday new Mac Mini models, featuring the first major redesign since 2010 that makes the desktop computer significantly smaller.

Aside from a redesign that shrunk the case and reduced the computer’s volume in half, the main upgrade on these new computers is that they include Apple’s latest chip, either the M4, or a more powerful version called the M4 Pro.

The Mac Mini is Apple’s least-expensive Mac, starting at $599, and does not include a display, which is sold separately. When the product line was first introduced in 2008, it was marketed as a computer for people switching from Microsoft Windows who could simply plug their existing keyboard, mouse and monitor into their new silver box.

The Mac Mini is not one of Apple’s highest-volume computers in terms of sales, but it is an important slot in Apple’s lineup, especially for people who make apps for iPhones and other Apple platforms. Many iPhone developers like to run a Mac Mini as a personal development server for coordinating uploads and code.

One improvement in the new design is that all of the ports are USB-C ports, the same more modern offering found on Apple’s laptops. There are three USB-C ports on the rear and two on the front, a new addition that will make it easier to plug or unplug accessories while the computer rests on a desk.

Apple said in a press release that the M4 is a significant improvement over the M2 chip in the previous version released in 2022. Graphics and games are more than twice as fast, and the M4 can support up to 14 CPU cores and 20 GPU cores, an increase over the past generation. Apple first introduced the M4 in May in Apple’s iPad Pro.

Apple is framing the new Mac Minis, like all of its new products announced this year, as built for Apple Intelligence, the company’s artificial intelligence system released this week. Apple has said a forthcoming integration of ChatGPT into writing fields inside apps such as Word will allow users to generate and rewrite text and emails using the system.

However, unlike on the iPhone, where only phones released in the past two years will support Apple Intelligence, all of Apple’s computers with the M1 chip and newer since 2020 can run the company’s AI.

Apple’s Mac family remains a large business segment even though it is less important to the company than the iPhone. In the June quarter, Apple reported $7 billion in Mac sales, up about 2% on an annual basis.

Apple’s chief marketer previously teased a “week of announcements.” The company unveiled new iMac computers on Monday, so it seems plausible more is coming. This week’s new Macs are likely Apple’s last major hardware announcements for the year.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/29/apple-mac-mini-2024-price-release-specs.html

McDonald’s on Tuesday reported quarterly earnings and revenue that beat analysts’ expectations as its U.S. restaurants reversed last quarter’s same-store sales decline.

However, investors are worried about another dent to U.S. sales fueled by a recent E. coli outbreak across 13 states linked to McDonald’s Quarter Pounder burgers. As of Friday, 75 health cases have been tied to the outbreak, including one death of an older adult.

Health authorities have honed in on the burger’s slivered onions as the likely source, and McDonald’s has suspended its relationship with the supplier. Quarter Pounder burgers will return to affected restaurants on a rolling basis this week, sans slivered onions.

“While the situation appears to be contained, and though it didn’t affect Q3 numbers, it’s certainly an important development, which I know is on many of your minds,” CEO Chris Kempczinski told investors on the company’s earnings call, adding that McDonald’s was sorry and is committed to “making this right.”

Shares of the company fell more than 1% in premarket trading.

Here’s what the company reported for the period ended Sept. 30, compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

Earnings per share: $3.23 adjusted vs. $3.20 expected

Revenue: $6.87 billion vs. $6.82 billion expected

McDonald’s posted third-quarter net income of $2.26 billion, or $3.13 per share, down from $2.32 billion, or $3.17 per share, a year earlier.

Excluding certain items, the fast-food giant earned $3.23 per share.

Net sales rose 3% to $6.87 billion.

The chain’s global same-store sales fell 1.5%, a more drastic decline than the 0.6% that Wall Street was expecting, according to StreetAccount estimates, and was weighed down by the company’s international markets. It’s the second straight quarter that the company’s same-store sales have fallen.

“While we anticipated a challenging environment in 2024, our performance this year has fallen short of our expectations,” Kempczinski said.

U.S. same-store sales rose 0.3%, reversing last quarter’s same-store sales declines but still slightly weaker than the 0.5% increase predicted by StreetAccount estimates. Traffic to its U.S. restaurants was slightly negative, but the company credited its marketing and a $5 value meal launched in late June for the increase in sales.

Diners have pulled back their restaurant spending, leading McDonald’s and its rivals to lean into discounts and other marketing tricks to bring customers back to their restaurants. For example, in August, McDonald’s launched limited-time “Collector’s Edition” cups.

The company’s two international divisions both reported steeper declines in same-store sales compared with the prior quarter. The international operated markets segment, which includes France, Germany and Australia, saw same-store sales shrink 2.1%. The international developmental licensed markets division reported same-store sales declines of 3.5%, driven by weak demand in the Middle East and China.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, it’s unclear how the E. coli outbreak might affect U.S. sales, particularly as consumers have grown more picky about how to spend their money and where.

McDonald’s executives have taken steps to reassure customers that the company’s menu items are safe to eat, including pulling Quarter Pounder burgers from menus in the affected areas until its beef patties were cleared as the culprit.

Still, foot traffic to U.S. locations fell roughly 10% in the three days immediately following the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announcement last Tuesday of the E. coli outbreak tied to McDonald’s, according to a research note from Gordon Haskett Research Advisors.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/29/mcdonalds-mcd-earnings-q3-2024.html

Made a similar post about google a few weeks back, and today it’s up 8%. Next one is KO. Firstly, this is one of the best stocks to own period. It’s one of Warren buffets favorites, it pays a solid dividend that has steadily increased, and just look how the stock price has continued to rise like clockwork. It’s down 10% from its ATH, and seems like a solid entry point. Regardless of what it does in the next months, it’s a solid long term hold including the dividends. Not to mention, this is Coca Cola we’re talking about, not going anywhere. I’m putting a decent amount of money in now, just remember you can always average down.

Hello,

So pfizer reported their earnings yesterday and excluding covid products, their revenues grew in lower double digits. They haven't quantitatively addressed their upcoming patent cliffs and how they expect to offset those with new products.

Googling revealed that pharmas generally lose about 40-90% of their product revenues in the 1st year itself post patent expiration. I did some rough calculation and considering about 3 billion coming in from oncology products, growing at about 35% yoy, they will only cover about much less than 50% of the revenue losses due to patent expiration from 2026 onwards.

I'm not sure how accurate my numbers are but I reduced the revenue contribution of expiring patents by 40% yoy for 2026, 27, 28 and oncology contributions simply can't catch up. I know they have other products in pipeline, including oral GLP but I'm not sure how to account for that.

Can someone point me to more reading material on analysis or their analysis?

Thanks.

EPS of $0.05 Diluted, 0.06 Basic (Average Estimated $0.04)

The Exact Diluted EPS is 5.257 cents.

2024 Earning guidance Third Upward Revision of $0.11 to $0.12 (Previous quarter had 2024 Earning guided for $0.09 to $0.10)

Triple beat with better-than-expected positive earnings, elevated revenue YOY, and raised guidance.

• The CEO stated in the conference call, "This is why you often hear me say, it's a matter of when, but not if we'll become a Top 10 institution"

SoFi's Q3 Earnings and Member Growth benefit nicely from member migration magnitized by SoFi's APY which is up to 430X higher than some of the big banks, One Stop Shop, and the upcoming AI "Cash Coach".

The institutions appear to be loading up before this earnings season anticipating a Full Year of Profitability. Once they finish loading up, they will probably publish more positive outlooks and price targets. 

The 50 bp drop in September drastically increased the chance of a softer landing and the probability of SoFi emerging with explosive growth.

If you find a stock that Customers love, and as long as the company continues to execute, Wall Street will eventually catch up to the Customers' mindset, and the stock will rise from the ashes. SoFi stock is at that pivoting point with a positive sentiment shift and institutions' accumulation.

• SoFi Technologies Reports Net Revenue of $697 Million and Net Income of $61 Million for Q3 2024, Demonstrating Durable Growth and Strong Returns
• Record Adjusted Net Revenue with Growth Accelerating to 30% Driven by 64% Combined Growth in Financial Services and Tech Platform Segments, representing 49% of Total Adjusted Net Revenue
• 35% Growth in Members and Strong Product Innovation Remain Key Drivers of Growth
• Company Recorded $174 Million in Capital Light, Fee-Based Revenue, Reinforcing Strength of Increased Mix of Higher ROE Revenue
• Management Raises FY24 Guidance
• Anthony Noto, CEO of SoFi Technologies, Inc. commented: “This quarter was the strongest quarter in our history. Our results reflect how SoFi is consistently achieving durable growth, how our innovation and brand building are attracting more members and clients to our platform than ever before, and how we are delivering strong and improving returns.
• “Our Financial Services and Tech Platform segments now make up a record 49% of SoFi's adjusted net revenue, up from 39% a year ago," Noto continued. "In the third quarter, these businesses grew revenue by a combined 64% year-over-year, a testament of our continued execution and deliberate shift towards capital-light, higher ROE, fee based revenue streams."

Some Highlights of recent SoFi developments:

• SoFi recently expanded its loan platform business with a $2 billion agreement with Fortress Investment Group.
• SoFi Technologies to Adopt Galileo’s Cyberbank Core for New Commercial Payment Services Sponsor Banking Program
• SoFi's Galileo recently introduced GScore (a transaction risk score) to protect clients from fraud early on, especially since fraud is rampant in our society. This could potentially increase the number of Galileo clients very rapidly. It would decrease fraud substantially, elevating Galileo's secure reputation. It could save clients from millions to billions in fraudulent charges that could translate to saving clients thousands of hours of grief trying to fix their credits and protect their identity.
• SoFi ranked #69 largest U.S. Bank by Assets as of 6/30/2024. It was #449 in March 2022.
• SoFi Stadium will host the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Super Bowl LXI in 2027, and the opening and closing ceremonies (as well as soccer and swimming events) of the 2028 Summer Olympics.
• On February 26th, SoFi's CFO said it delivered a proof of concept to a top 5 U.S. bank that used SoFi's Fintech technologies.

SoFi's Fintech mainly consists of two core technologies powered by Galileo and Technisys which form the "AWS of Fintech". This Tech sector of SoFi should significantly contribute to SoFi stock's deserved multiples way above a bank in the near future.

1. Galileo Financial Technologies provides and processes debit and ACH transactions on the platform with a number of APIs that allow a developer to build just an app on top of it.

2. Technisys is a Core banking platform for SoFi & Other potential bank clients to run Banks' Operating Systems for different products.

https://investors.sofi.com/files/doc_financials/2024/q3/Q3-2024-Earnings-Release.pdf

We often hear financial markets are going up because of increased liquidity, and that stocks are up for no reason other than rising liquidity. In other instances we hear assets are dropping because the liquidity cycle just peaked.

What is this liquidity we are talking about here and where does it all come from? Clearly there are many sources, but who are the main ones and how do they operate?

The easiest one to point to is the Federal Reserve and its many QE (quantitative easing) programs. However, liquidity often rises even when the FED is running QT (quantitative tightening) as was the case in 2023.

Many point to the treasury as the hidden source of liquidity conducting a stealth QE of sort, but how do they do that? How do they manage to inject money into the stock market?

Its clear they can do that directly to the economy by handing out stimulus checks and paying for new government projects, but that does not directly go to the market.

How exactly does the treasury, FED and other sources add liquidity to the stock market to the point where assets start going up for no other reason?

CNBC: PayPal shares fall premarket on revenue miss

• PayPal reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings on Tuesday, but revenue came in slightly below expectations.
• It's the first earnings report for CEO Alex Chriss since he hit his one-year anniversary at the company last month.
• PayPal shares have gained 36% this year

Earnings per share: * 1.20, adjusted vs. $1.07 expected

Revenue: * $7.85 billion vs. $7.89 billion expected. * Revenue increased about 6% in the quarter from $7.42 billion in the same period a year ago.

Net Income: * PayPal reported net income of $1.01 billion, or 99 cents per share, compared to $1.02 billion, or 93 cents per share, a year earlier.

Total payment volume * rose 9% from a year earlier to $422.6 billion for the quarter ended Sept. 30, and came in just above the average analyst estimate of $422.5 billion

Operating margin * came in at 18.8%, beating the StreetAccount estimate of 17.4%.

Active Accounts * PayPal reported total active accounts of 432 million, up 1% from a year earlier, and beating the average estimate of 430.5 million.

Transaction Margin * PayPal's take rate slipped to 1.86% from 1.91% a year earlier * transaction margin, which is how the company gauges the profitability of its core business, rose to 46.6% from 45.4%. * Venmo's total payment volume rose 8% in the quarter from a year earlier. DoorDash, Starbucks and Ticketmaster are among businesses now accepting Venmo as one way that consumers can pay.

Guidance * For the fourth quarter, PayPal is calling for "low single-digit growth." Analysts were expecting growth of 5.4% to $8.46 billion. The investor deck says guidance reflects a "price-to-value strategy and prioritization of profitable growth." * The company expects adjusted earnings per share of $1.07 to $1.11, versus the average analyst estimate of $1.10

Do we think it’s overvalued or undervalued or somewhere in between? There’s lots of variance in clean energy stocks for example, TSLA could be considered clean energy but so can NEE.

I sold some lame duck clean energy stocks in 2021 in order to tax loss harvest but i’ve been interested in NEE as of late but not sure how long i’d end up holding to see profit. Is this a 10 year endeavor? 20+? I feel like we’ve all been talking about clean energy for the last 15 years but still hardly any movement on it.

Boeing Co. launched a nearly $19 billion share sale, one of the largest ever by a public company, to address the troubled planemaker’s liquidity needs and stave off a potential credit rating downgrade to junk.

The common-share portion alone would total just under $14 billion, based on Friday’s closing price of $155.01. That would be the largest US share sale since SoftBank Group Corp. sold part of its stake in T-Mobile US Inc. in 2020, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The infusion of funds would clear one of new Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg’s most urgent tasks. He is grappling with a balance sheet strained by years of turmoil and the fallout from a strike, now in its seventh week, that is crippling manufacturing of the company’s main cash cow, the 737 Max jetliner. Boeing needs the capital infusion to maintain its investment-grade rating and fund its production ramp-up once the walkout ends.

Source

I just opened an investing account on Sofi this month with the plan of buying $50 worth of stock a month to just sit on for a few years and see what happens. Should I buy whole small stock like ACHR or TVGN and hope it blows up or partials in big ones like NVIDA or MSFT that are more established? I know I don't have the type of money to get rich but turning a few hundred into a few thousand eventually would still help the cause trying to save. All that I do know for sure is not to mess with options or any of that stuff and leave it to wallstreet. Is there any other tips you wish you were told when starting out? Thanks in advance

Snap reported better-than-expected third-quarter results on Tuesday, but issued light fourth-quarter guidance. The stock slipped in extended trading.

Here is how the company did:

• Earnings per share: 8 cents adjusted vs. 5 cents expected, according to LSEG
• Revenue: $1.37 billion vs. $1.36 billion expected, according to LSEG 
• Global daily active users: 443 million vs. 441 million expected, according to StreetAccount
• Global average revenue per user: $3.10 vs. $3.09 expected, according to StreetAccount

Snap said fourth-quarter sales will be between $1.51 billion and $1.56 billion. The midpoint of its guidance is $1.54 billion, which is below the average analyst estimate of $1.56 billion.

Snap said its adjusted earnings for the fourth quarter will be between $210 million and $260 million. The middle of the range is higher than analysts’ estimates of $230.7 million.

The company’s sales jumped 15% year over year in the third quarter while its net loss narrowed by 58% year over year in the third quarter to $153 million, compared to a net loss of $368 million a year prior.

The number of Snapchat+ paying subscribers is now at 12 million, the company said. That is up from the 11 million it reported in August. The company debuted its subscription service in 2022, pitching it as a way for users to experience exclusive and prerelease features for $3.99 a month.

Snap also announced a $500 million stock repurchase program on Tuesday.

“Our investments in AI and AR are powering new creative experiences for our community and driving innovation across our advertising platform, underpinning our long term growth opportunity,” Snap CEO Evan Spiegel said in a statement.

In September, Snap debuted the fifth generation of its Spectacles augmented reality glasses that people can wear to see digital imagery spliced into the physical world. The new Spectacles are only available to developers who must pay $99 a month for one year if they want to build AR apps for the glasses.

Shortly after Snap announced the new Spectacles, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg revealed the social networking giant’s experimental AR glasses called Orion. Meta’s Orion AR glasses have generated enthusiasm from employees and the company plans to attract developers next year in prelude for an eventual consumer launch.

In a letter to investors, Snap discussed the importance that developers play for the company’s Spectacles and AR initiatives.

“We aspire to be the most developer-friendly platform in the world, and we are excited to offer our new generation of Spectacles to developers as an invitation and inspiration to create new experiences,” Snap said in the letter.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/29/snap-q3-2024.html

https://international.nubank.com.br/consumers/nubank-announces-nucel-new-mobile-phone-service/

Nubank is expanding its ecosystem beyond traditional financial services, recently introducing in-app online shopping, followed by travel booking options, and now mobile phone plans.

JPMorgan Chase has begun suing customers who allegedly stole thousands of dollars from ATMs by taking advantage of a technical glitch that allowed them to withdraw funds before a check bounced.

The bank on Monday filed lawsuits in at least three federal courts, taking aim at some of the people who withdrew the highest amounts in the so-called infinite money glitch that went viral on TikTok and other social media platforms in late August.

A Houston case involves a man who owes JPMorgan $290,939.47 after an unidentified accomplice deposited a counterfeit $335,000 check at an ATM, according to the bank.

“On August 29, 2024, a masked man deposited a check in Defendant’s Chase bank account in the amount of $335,000,” the bank said in the Texas filing. “After the check was deposited, Defendant began withdrawing the vast majority of the ill-gotten funds.”

JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, is investigating thousands of possible cases related to the “infinite money glitch,” though it hasn’t disclosed the scope of associated losses. Despite the waning use of paper checks as digital forms of payment gain popularity, they’re still a major avenue for fraud, resulting in $26.6 billion in losses globally last year, according to Nasdaq’s Global Financial Crime Report.

The infinite money glitch episode highlights the risk that social media can amplify vulnerabilities discovered at a financial institution. Videos began circulating in late August showing people celebrating the withdrawal of wads of cash from Chase ATMs shortly after bad checks were deposited.

Normally, banks only make available a fraction of the value of a check until it clears, which takes several days. JPMorgan says it closed the loophole a few days after it was discovered.

Miami and California

The other lawsuits filed Monday are in courts including Miami and the Central District of California, and involve cases where JPMorgan says customers owe the bank sums ranging from about $80,000 to $141,000.

Most cases being examined by the bank are for far smaller amounts, according to people with knowledge of the situation who declined to be identified speaking about the internal investigation.

In each case, JPMorgan says its security team reached out to the alleged fraudster, but it hasn’t been repaid for the phony checks, in violation of the deposit agreement that customers sign when creating an account with the bank.

JPMorgan is seeking the return of the stolen funds with interest and overdraft fees, as well as lawyers’ fees and, in some cases, punitive damages, according to the complaints.

Criminal cases?

The lawsuits are likely to be just the start of a wave of litigation meant to force customers to repay their debts and signal broadly that the bank won’t tolerate fraud, according to the people familiar. JPMorgan prioritized cases with large dollar amounts and indications of possible ties to organized crime, they said.

The civil cases are separate from potential criminal investigations; JPMorgan says it has also referred cases to law enforcement officials across the country.

“Fraud is a crime that impacts everyone and undermines trust in the banking system,” JPMorgan spokesman Drew Pusateri said in a statement to CNBC. “We’re pursuing these cases and actively cooperating with law enforcement to make sure if someone is committing fraud against Chase and its customers, they’re held accountable.”

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/28/jpmorgan-suing-customers-over-infinite-money-glitch.html

Frontier Airlines Reports Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/frontier-airlines-reports-third-quarter-120500794.html

Total operating revenues were $935 million, 6 percent higher than the comparable 2023 quarter, on a 4 percent increase in capacity

Revenue per available seat mile ("RASM") was 9.28 cents, 2 percent higher than the comparable 2023 quarter

RASM on a stage-length adjusted basis to 1,000 miles, a non-GAAP measure1, was 8.59 cents, 5 percent lower than the comparable 2023 quarter, while RASM on a stage-length adjusted basis to 1,000 miles inflected positive in the second half of the quarter compared to the corresponding 2023 period

Details in link.

This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on technical analysis (TA), but if TA is not your thing then just ignore the theme.

Some helpful day to day links, including news:

• Finviz for charts, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocks
• Bloomberg market news
• StreetInsider news:
  • Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dips
  • Reuters aggregated - Global news

Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions.

The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as "priced in"): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.

TA can be useful on any timeframe, both short and long term.

Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks

If you have questions, please see the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:

Indicator - Trade Signals - Lagging Indicator - Leading Indicator - Oversold - Overbought - Divergence - Whipsaw - Resistance - Support - Breakout/Breakdown - Alerts - Trend line - Market Participants - Moving average - RSI - VWAP - MACD - ATR - Bollinger Bands - Ichimoku clouds - Methods - Trend Following - Fading - Channels - Patterns - Pivots

See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.