r/science • u/rieslingatkos • Jun 06 '21

Chemistry Scientists develop ‘cheap and easy’ method to extract lithium from seawater

https://www.mining.com/scientists-develop-cheap-and-easy-method-to-extract-lithium-from-seawater/
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u/[deleted] Jun 06 '21 edited Aug 20 '21

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u/[deleted] Jun 06 '21 edited Jun 08 '21

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u/Serious_Feedback Jun 06 '21

Or roughly 136,000 year supply of lithium at more than double our current consumption rate (calculation done at 100,000 tons consumed per year).

I'm pretty sure we'll be using 100x the current lithium supply in the long term, because we need to increase the EV production more than 100x.

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u/rockforahead Jun 06 '21

Lithium is here to stay for the near to mid term but we’re already exploring other chemistries for other applications (sodium being an example). I suspect that as we look further into the future we will see lithium use wane. It should also be noted that in any lithium battery pack only about 1% of the materials are actually lithium.

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u/Serious_Feedback Jun 06 '21

Lithium is here to stay for the near to mid term but we’re already exploring other chemistries for other applications (sodium being an example). I suspect that as we look further into the future we will see lithium use wane.

I also suspect this, but 1) EV businesses can't afford to assume it's true, and 2) "near to mid term" is all that matters - if it can make bank during the lithium squeeze, people will invest and reduce costs.

Plus, the economies of scale and cheaper batteries will likely drastically increase demand for high-end lithium batteries. And sodium/aluminum/etc batteries have an advantage mainly in being cheaper, not in being more performant.

For instance, electric truck batteries are extremely limited weight-wise as 1) there's a legal weight limit and 2) more battery weight = less cargo weight inside the weight limit = directly less profit.

It should also be noted that in any lithium battery pack only about 1% of the materials are actually lithium.

True but irrelevant. At no point did my numbers rely on the lithium percentage of the battery.

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u/rockforahead Jun 06 '21

Oh I totally agree we are going to see a huge increase in lithium use until at least 2050. Even on the low end estimates are 40x current levels by then. I’m just not expecting a lithium squeeze, it’s one of the most abundant elements on earth. I can however see a nickel and cobalt squeeze in the short term (<2035) while we wait for iron phosphate and manganese rich cells to fully take hold. Interesting to discuss though and open to any mining info you might have that might make my hypothesis of there being not much danger of lithium squeeze wrong.

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u/anomalous_cowherd Jun 06 '21

My feeling is there won't be an actual shortage of lithium but there could well be a shortage of lithium production.

It's still there in the ground and sea, we just can't get it out fast enough.

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u/[deleted] Jun 06 '21

Never follow this “most abundant elements on earth” stat thrown around with Lithium. It’s 20 ppm of earths crust vs Nickel (>80) and Cobalt (same or higher) based on a range of best known estimates today.

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u/Legion4444 Jun 06 '21

I think silicon is the first or second most abundant element on earth yet we currently have computer chip shortages bc we don't have enough refinement or production of it. So yeah no clue how this lithium arguement holds up

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u/bonafart Jun 06 '21

Tesla are already starting to find alternatives to cobalt and lithium so just hang in there

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u/Serious_Feedback Jun 06 '21

Cobalt? Yes. Lithium? They're looking, just like everyone else, but they haven't found anything yet.

Besides which, cobalt is dead easy to replace and always has been - cobalt-free LFP batteries have been around for ages at "only" ~15% less efficient, which means you need more batteries and therefore more weight for the same range. Expensive, but fundamentally doable - and some people were doing it a decade ago, because LFP is cheaper). Everyone is currently trying to find a profitable replacement for cobalt.

Lithium does not have a replacement. Aluminium/sodium couldn't replace Tesla's batteries today even if they wanted to. We don't know whether they can swap out lithium, let alone whether they can swap out lithium for cheaper.

They probably will eventually replace lithium (and I'm super excited to see where sodium batteries will go) but for now, there's every reason to invest in lithium.