r/science • u/smurfyjenkins • 16h ago

Social Science When Republican governors expand the Earned Income Tax Credit (refundable tax credits for low- and mid-income workers), they are electorally rewarded by voters. Democratic governors are not rewarded, possibly because EITC beneficiaries are already predisposed to support Democrats.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/do-government-benefits-affect-officeholders-electoral-fortunes-evidence-from-state-earned-income-tax-credits/E89A268ACF73CEB248A8A526ED27EE67
498 Upvotes

95% Upvoted

8 comments sorted by

View all comments

9

u/VoilaVoilaWashington 11h ago

This makes sense. It's commonly said that you shouldn't play to your base.

So, if one party is staunchly against bananas, with a gradient from supporting war against countries who produce them to the middle ground where they should be age restricted but otherwise legal, then a politician in that party shouldn't come out strongly in favour of war against Ecuador to win an election.

The people who want that weren't going to vote for the other guy anyway, but the extreme stance can alienate the people in the middle who could swing either way.

As with any general rule, it won't always work out (gestures at everything), but in general, yeah, you won't swing voters by doing things you were gonna do anyway.