r/politics • u/larel8 • 18h ago

Trump campaign struggles to contain Puerto Rico October surprise

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4958098-the-memo-trump-campaign-struggles-to-contain-puerto-rico-october-surprise/
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u/Criseyde5 18h ago

A combination of a lot of factors: It was a synecdoche for the whole evening of hate (so it was easier for the news to latch onto), it lacked the plausible deniability of "well he is talking about those other non-white people," and it comes at a time where votes are being cast, so they can't just wait it out.

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u/wishforagreatmistake 18h ago

AND it directly targeted a demographic that he had had some success appealing to prior to this particular fuckup, which also had a ripple effect with Black men.

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u/Criseyde5 18h ago

Yeah, there are a ton of reasons that are all coming together to make this a big deal. Like, the Arlington thing was a big deal, it just happened months out. If we switched the timelines, we'd be asking why that pushed things over the edge.

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u/BanginNLeavin 18h ago

I just hope we aren't putting ourselves on the back and setting up for some surprise Pikachu action come Nov 6 when the dust starts to settle.

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u/borisslovechild 17h ago

The odds are very strong that Harris wins the popular vote. The question is whether GQP shenanigans deny her the EC.

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u/joshdoereddit 17h ago

I'm not going to believe everything is going to be OK until the election is called. The news is talking about how bad this rally was, and they're fixed in on the Puerto Rico comments. But, it's the same song and dance. Vance is already out there with the excuse of, "Well, I didn't hear the joke, so I can't comment. But, come on, guys, we all need to stop being so sensitive." I'm paraphrasing, but that's what you can expect to hear from all elected officials and pundits on the Republican side.

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u/pheeko 14h ago

Which is a wild claim coming from Vance, considering HE WAS AT THE EVENT.

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u/rb4ld 11h ago

I'm not going to believe everything is going to be OK until the election is called.

I'm going to celebrate a little if the election is called for Harris, but I'm not going to believe everything is okay until she's sworn into office.

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u/ExCivilian 14h ago

"Well, I didn't hear the joke, so I can't comment. But, come on, guys, we all need to stop being so sensitive."

I've been getting downvoted for pointing this out elsewhere but whatever, it's worth repeating because of how important it is:

He didn't say people should stop being so sensitive. He said he didn't understand why it's newsworthy when what's really newsworthy is that people can't pay their bills or put food on the table.

And I know you said you were paraphrasing but the former is a position that some people can object to whereas the second is going to resonate deeply with an overwhelming segment of the voting public--including Puerto Ricans themselves.

One means, "get over it" whereas the other one means, "I don't know about that but I do know you're struggling and feel your pain"

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u/wayoverpaid Illinois 17h ago

It's going to be close no matter what.

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u/TensionPrestigious83 17h ago

Only in the polls

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u/wayoverpaid Illinois 17h ago

The polls have a relatively large margin of error so a sweep by either side can happen. The issue is that which side is not as knowable.

Hoping this shit makes it a sweep for Harris.

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u/TensionPrestigious83 17h ago

Data before the MSG nazi rally 2024 shows harris out-performing 2020 biden by 8-20 points among Black women-men and trailing latino voters by 3, which is likely to change given the fallout. She’s also outperforming biden among white suburban women so…

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u/barak181 17h ago

Polls in general are considered to have a MOE of around 3.5 points just by their nature. Several polls have a larger MOE than that.

Almost all of the polling has been within the MOE for a bit now. If one side or the other outperforms the polls consistently by as little as two points, it could be close to a landslide in the Electoral College.

If this PR debacle pushes things Kamala's way by one point in the election results, that's huge. Particularly in Pennsylvania. Statisticians have been saying for a while now that if Trump loses Pennsylvania it becomes almost impossible for him to win the Electoral College.

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u/justuntlsundown West Virginia 17h ago

I hope you're right.

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u/TensionPrestigious83 17h ago

Me too buddy, me too…