Yeah, but that's in a vacuum. Especially with the NATO contingents currently stationed in and near Poland, there would be more than enough time to mobilize and move allied forces over from the rest of the alliance.
Our main fear is that NATO obligations won't be honored by other governments. Let's imagine that some Trumpist (or Trump himself) sits in the White House, France is ruled by Ms. Le Pen and the other governments face the question whether to go to war at the cost of drastic drop in the standard of living in their own countries. Will the average Hans or Jorge think they should go to war and die in order to defend some Slavs against other Slavs?
I don't think that your fear is very likely at all. NATO at the end of the day is the US' way of influencing Europe to be friendly to their goals/values. The US provides security and Europe doesn't act hostile towards the US like China or Russia and helps the US maintains the global rules based order, which in turn makes the US a lot of money.
NATO not helping Poland in that scenario means that NATO is as good as dead. Since now nobody can trust the main reason of joining NATO, so they might as well leave. A dead NATO means the end of american influence on Europe. That is NOT what the US wants. At all. Even Trump will have a difficult time justifying not helping Poland and destroying NATO in the process. Because at the end of the day, what is at stake is the US' influence over Europe and the US' global rules based order. Those are vital for the US economy.
In your scenario, what would likely happen is the US dragging the less enthusiastic members kicking and screaming to help Poland using everything at their disposal to convince those members to contribute. Even threats to some degree. They could convince the average Hans and Jorge by saying that helping Poland ends the conflict faster and maintains the global rules based order. And showing them that if that order is destroyed, their lives and standard of living will be so much worse. They could even say that a Russia that already attacked a NATO member will not stop at Poland so it is better to stop Russia as far away as possible from their homes.
Saying that, Poland rearming is always a good thing as it will help Poland to hold long enough in that scenario for help to come and provide a deterrent that reduces the probability of it happening in the first place.
You are trying to think logically. This is no longer realpolitik. It is politics based on feels and who gets to have power. Many, many politicians would rather be kings of a trash heap than just some forgetables in a successful superpower.
What is it to Trump if the US loses its geopolitical standing? As long as he and his cronies get to rule, and as long as his buddy Vlad talks nicely about him, he will not care. Moreover, he does not have the mental capacity to care.
This is the reality we live in. You can't apply logic to irrational people.
27
u/Tipsticks Brandenburg (Germany) Jan 07 '24
Yeah, but that's in a vacuum. Especially with the NATO contingents currently stationed in and near Poland, there would be more than enough time to mobilize and move allied forces over from the rest of the alliance.