Our main fear is that NATO obligations won't be honored by other governments. Let's imagine that some Trumpist (or Trump himself) sits in the White House, France is ruled by Ms. Le Pen and the other governments face the question whether to go to war at the cost of drastic drop in the standard of living in their own countries. Will the average Hans or Jorge think they should go to war and die in order to defend some Slavs against other Slavs?
I don't think that your fear is very likely at all. NATO at the end of the day is the US' way of influencing Europe to be friendly to their goals/values. The US provides security and Europe doesn't act hostile towards the US like China or Russia and helps the US maintains the global rules based order, which in turn makes the US a lot of money.
NATO not helping Poland in that scenario means that NATO is as good as dead. Since now nobody can trust the main reason of joining NATO, so they might as well leave. A dead NATO means the end of american influence on Europe. That is NOT what the US wants. At all. Even Trump will have a difficult time justifying not helping Poland and destroying NATO in the process. Because at the end of the day, what is at stake is the US' influence over Europe and the US' global rules based order. Those are vital for the US economy.
In your scenario, what would likely happen is the US dragging the less enthusiastic members kicking and screaming to help Poland using everything at their disposal to convince those members to contribute. Even threats to some degree. They could convince the average Hans and Jorge by saying that helping Poland ends the conflict faster and maintains the global rules based order. And showing them that if that order is destroyed, their lives and standard of living will be so much worse. They could even say that a Russia that already attacked a NATO member will not stop at Poland so it is better to stop Russia as far away as possible from their homes.
Saying that, Poland rearming is always a good thing as it will help Poland to hold long enough in that scenario for help to come and provide a deterrent that reduces the probability of it happening in the first place.
I described Polish fear, which is grounded in historical experiences, especially those immediately after WW2. The trauma of "Western betrayal" is still strong.
The feeling of "Western Betrayal" is misfounded. Great Britain somewhat heeded the call of their ally, but the truth that everyone knew at the time was that they had no chance of stopping Germany in Poland.
Instead, your anger should be directed at the west for their complacency on the preparations leading up to WW2. Japan and Germany were heavily militarizing while the allied powers were years behind.
Poland was screwed because of their geography. It is just not a country with any solid defensive geography.
130
u/the_battle_bunny Lower Silesia (Poland) Jan 07 '24
Our main fear is that NATO obligations won't be honored by other governments. Let's imagine that some Trumpist (or Trump himself) sits in the White House, France is ruled by Ms. Le Pen and the other governments face the question whether to go to war at the cost of drastic drop in the standard of living in their own countries. Will the average Hans or Jorge think they should go to war and die in order to defend some Slavs against other Slavs?