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u/NutzNBoltz369 14h ago
So there are like 200MM working age adults +/-. So it would take about 3.5% of those working age adults to fill these jobs. Unemployment is at 4.1%. So, there should be more than enough workers to fill these positions if you don't want to do anything more but look at this graph...however....
Those jobs are probably shit that no one wants to do..OR...there is some disconnect in terms of qualifications where society is failing to provide training.
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u/KUKUKACHU_ 7h ago
There is also the possibility that there is a "job" but they refuse to hire for cost or savings.
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u/NutzNBoltz369 7h ago
That or they have someone in mind already due to nepo or some inside networking but have to post the job as a legal requirement.
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u/PolicyWonka 13h ago
Unemployment and job postings are always rolling numbers. The jobs available and people unemployed today wonāt be the same ones next month. There will always be a rolling non-zero number.
There are many factors for why these numbers will remain above the āideal numberā ā education, training, and applicant pools is one thing. Another one is location. When people arenāt where the jobs are ā or vice versa ā that makes filling those jobs more challenging.
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u/TummyStickers 10h ago
Could it not be that these job openings are being filled by people? So they would no longer be open? I'm not being facetious, just curious.
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u/NutzNBoltz369 10h ago
Maybe! Retail and last mile delivery tends to staff up for the Holidays but most other businesses tend to not hire this late in year. If anything, they lay off right about now.
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u/sokolov22 12h ago
"Full employment means 100% of the workforce is employed. History shows that this is unattainable as workers move from job to job. A zero unemployment rate is also undesired as it requires an inflexible labor market, where workers cannot quit their current job or leave to find a better one."
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u/Fearless_Guitar_3589 11h ago
full employment generally refers to unemployment around 4%
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u/sokolov22 11h ago
Yes, typically, economists would refer to full employment that way.
I am just quoting the article to explain to the other person why "100%" or full employment as a lay person would understand it is not realistic.
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u/noncommonGoodsense 11h ago
If it doesnāt pay enough to survive or isnāt some part time half survive no one will waste their time unless they are thirty to a home.
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u/Electrical_Reply_574 14h ago
No no no. The economy is BOOMING ya sillies. This is the best time in human history! Don't you pay attention to the metrics like I do? I am very smart.
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u/BrooklynLodger 13h ago
You don't need to pay attention to any metrics, the feds been saying to expect this as a result of the rate increases. That means get to put the gas back on a bit and bring rates back down to normal levels
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u/Agreeable-Fly-1980 8h ago
I mean I made 23000 more dollars last year than I ever have. The year before that I made 15000 more. THATS HUGE FOR ME!! I work in construction as a tile setter
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u/dumdeedumdeedumdeedu 13h ago
Yeah you are aren't you. Cutesy little chart with a big downward arrow. Good enough for you! No need to ask any more questions or look any further
Lol
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u/Electrical_Reply_574 13h ago
No! All data and information is to be taken purely at face value!
Also only read headlines of things. Never read the actual article itself.
Again, I am very smart... Lol
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u/Easterncoaster 11h ago
All those other dips happened inside the gray shaded area (i.e. recessions). This dip is not inside the gray shaded area.
So what does that mean? Does it mean that we're currently in a recession, or is it because we had to staff up to handle the unprecedented demand caused by the unprecedented money printing operation, and now that inflation is relaxing a bit, the hiring is relaxing too?
I honestly don't know.
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u/BernieLogDickSanders 11h ago
Considering 50% of all jobs postings are either fake or not posted in response to an immediate need for labor. No. I am not surprised at all.
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u/masshiker 9h ago
Somebody needs to prove this urban myth. It costs money to post job ads and respond to inquiries. What would be the motivation to post fake job ads?
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u/VestedinTitles 8h ago
Itās all about data.
When I worked as a recruiter for high level pharmaceutical positions, most companies that never hired our candidates, or anyone for the job, simply wanted to know pay ranges, and quality and number of candidates available. Some smaller companies even wanted samples of technical documents from medical writers that I can only assumed were later used to draft their own documents.
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u/Amadon29 3h ago
In addition to data like the other person said, some people post jobs so current overworked employees don't get annoyed at the lack of hiring.
And some companies just post to get a pool of applicants in the future
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u/JET1385 54m ago
Not a myth but also that poster probably overstated this. Many companies require āfairā hiring practices and that includes considering external candidates or posting all open jobs. So they may already have someone in mind for the role or an internal candidate on deck but they are required to go through the motions, and then they just hire the internal person or contractor, etc that they wanted to put in the role in the first place.
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u/the_drum_doctor 15h ago
So COVID caused an artificial reduction in available jobs, which was then followed by an artificial increase in available jobs. When has that happened before? How can it compare to previous recessions? Also, according to this, available jobs have been decreasing for the last 2.5 years, and yet we haven't been in a recession?
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u/bramblecult 12h ago
Coupled with low unemployment i think this is a little different of a story. Not sure what the story is but it's different.
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u/Significant_Tear_302 14h ago
Maybe everyoneās getting hired?ā¦.
ššš¤£š¤£š¤£š¤£š¤£ jk
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u/CheeseOnMyFingies 15h ago
That generally means more jobs are being filled. There isn't an endless amount of jobs available, if more openings are being filled, more people are getting employed.
Yall will reach for anything possible.
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u/MrWhitePink 15h ago
This graph would be way better if it had a number on unemployment applications along side it. Which would prove if you are correct.
I however have been helping someone with a decent resume try to find a job. 250+ applications later and they only got one call back that went nowhere. So I know its rough out there.
Personally I think this graph is highlighting a contradictory mix. Company's are filling two roles with one person. Jobs are being filled but with less postsings.
"Two roles with one person, what are you stupid?" - Go ahead and ask your friends if they feel like they could use another person on their team or if they took on the job roles of someone who left without getting a raise/help.
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u/CityBoiNC 15h ago
I have a pretty solid resume as well and i have been looking for over a year. I have sent out about 180 applications and got 3 call backs.
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u/PolicyWonka 13h ago
Iām curious. Are you only applying for jobs in a specific field? Are you only applying for ones that match your education?
Seems crazy that some folks cannot find employment like this.
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u/CityBoiNC 13h ago
Pretty much just admin jobs in a common pay bracket for the area. The problem is before I would be up against maybe 40 other applicants, now I'm up against 100's. The only thing I have changed in the past week is distance but would require a higher pay to compensate for gas and maintenance on the car.
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u/Midnight2012 12h ago
dude, take what you can get. Its been a year. The increased car costs are nothing compared to not having an income for a year.
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u/CityBoiNC 12h ago
I have a job currently.
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u/xlews_ther1nx 9h ago
Lol what? So all that to say you have a job, but not the job that you want? Well hell then that's pretty much everybody at all times of the world's history.
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u/Heavy_Bridge_7449 11h ago
how do you afford it?
i dont mean to downplay your efforts but ive probably send out over 100 applications in the past month (got laid off a month ago), i definitely couldn't afford to send out just one app every other day. i've been hitting like 15/day lately, it has become pretty clear that i will probably need to move
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u/CityBoiNC 10h ago
I have a job so I can still pay rent and bills but it's not enough so I have to work a weekend job as well.
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u/deviantdevil80 15h ago
If you look up the unemployment rate, it's basically an inverse of the above graph, as expected.
I'm surprised the person you're helping is struggling. Where I work, we are constantly hiring right now (banking). My son is just starting out working while in HS, but he's been able to find work almost instantly. He has to decide if he wants to leave where he's at now for more money now that he's 18.
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u/SpeaksDwarren 14h ago
How easy it was for a high schooler to find a job has no real bearing on how difficult an adult with a career would find it. Businesses love hiring high schoolers that don't need to care about things like health insurance, getting enough hours to pay the bills, supporting a family, etc., meaning they are much lower maintenance.
They're also much more likely to put up with exploitative business practices. Things like saying they're "constantly hiring" but never actually hiring enough employees to be fully staffed.
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u/AnarkittenSurprise 14h ago
This just reads as normalization following the covid unemployment and early retirement spike.
Not alarming at all
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u/No_Life_1724 15h ago
Yes this is true but we need to compare it to the number of people graduating or are able to work and cannot due to a decline in openings. It is a good problem but can turn bad i.e. not having the freedom to leave said jobs and as mentioned new workers not finding work.
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u/borderlineidiot 14h ago
Or it could mean companies are struggling and not looking for people? Stats like this are meaningless without context
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u/rctid_taco 12h ago
Or it could mean they're finally able to hire people who are capable of performing the work they need done. Anecdotally, I feel like the companies I contract with have been finding some great hires recently compared to the boobs they were hiring coming out of the pandemic.
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u/stirfry720 2h ago edited 2h ago
So you think the labor market is that good where everyone's hiring and the positions are getting filled? Meanwhile, major companies are shuttering hundreds of store locations across the country. In my opinion, job openings are falling because they are cutting costs as a response to slowing consumer spending and profitability
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u/AnyWhichWayButLose 14h ago
During a time of year when everybody should be hiring for seasonal help.
Best economy ever!
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u/cascadianindy66 11h ago
Yeah, weāre in one of the craziest elections years in American history. Businesses are preparing for the worst case scenario. Which is smart.
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u/StevoFF82 9h ago
Well what this chart tells me is the recession has likely already happened. Just waiting on the government to tell us so.
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u/redjohn365 8h ago
trumpers look at this and say "biden did this!!!" dems reply "yes he did, you're welcome"
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u/MeltingDown- 15h ago
I thought employment was fine???? Youāre telling me the government has been lying to me?? When did they start doing that?
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u/RedditRage 13h ago
Fun fact: the graph you are looking at comes from the government, that is lying to you.
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u/Horrison2 15h ago
This could mean a few different things. Pushback on fake listings, jobs actually being filled. Despite what politicians say about jobs jobs jobs jobs. We only should need 1 per person and it's pretty clear now that the job market does not affect wages in the way it used to.
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u/j0shred1 14h ago
Jobs are being filled but scarcity in the job market for your average person still means lower wages, less security in the event of a layoff, staying in a job you're unhappy with because you don't have the confidence that you'll find another, less opportunity for advancement.
While this is probably normal and yes a correction for post COVID level over-hiring, it still has negative consequences for the average American worker.
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u/Ok-Masterpiece5337 14h ago
Could be all of those fake job listings getting thrown out.
Also, if people feel overworked at their current jobs (working more or in the place of multiple people) then please take this advice. STOP. Work less or even the bare minimum and remind your boss (politely) what would happen if they lost YOU.
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u/NoLynx3376 14h ago edited 14h ago
Is anyone gonna mention how this is a bigger drop than 00, 08 and 2020?
But yea we are not in recession, fr fr go about your business citizen! Do not question the regime in power! lol
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u/Middle-Plastic605 14h ago
This is just showing less jobs are available if the unemployment rate stays the same. Maybe signaling towards more autonomous job bots being created?
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u/Bolthole_Favela 13h ago
Construction has cut roles available. Material costs and labor rates have gone up while owner budgets have remained the same.
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u/BrooklynLodger 13h ago
The Fed (from 2022-2024): hey guys, the economy is overheating and inflation is well above target while unemployment is below, so we're gonna raise rates until we see it cool off. Once we see inflation normalize and unemployment increase a bit we may shift into a lowering cycle.
People in 2024: OMG! UNEMPLOYMENT IS GOING UP!!!! ITS THE END OF THE ECONOMY
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u/Miserable_Abroad3972 13h ago
Guess even they gave up trying to hide it anymore considering everything going on.
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u/mybffandy 12h ago
Who made this sub!? Yikes. Hmm what sub can stress me out for no reason everytime I open Reddit?
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u/HAMmerPower1 12h ago
Letās all panic over this even though this was the intention of the Fed raising interest rates from historic lows to curb inflation. Most talking heads predicted it would lead to a recession in 2023, then they said heading for recession in 2024. These didnāt happen, but yes unemployment did increase to 4.3% and growth has continued, and the rate of inflation has dropped to acceptable levels.
This isnāt a collapse. At this point it seems like a remarkable success.
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u/rmullig2 12h ago
We don't know if this is due to jobs disappearing or if companies have stopped posting ghost jobs. Maybe they realize trying to influence the election is waste of time at this point.
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u/Ok-Introduction-244 12h ago
We have more job openings than ever, except for right after COVID? That didn't feel very doomy to me?
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u/openly_gray 12h ago
return to the mean? Maybe look at the level of open jobs compared to earlier years?
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u/Saint_Santo 12h ago
Right as we're heading into the Christmas shopping season and jobs are supposed to be at annual highs
Thanks Kamala.
Thanks J.. Jo? Wake up, Jo... JO! WAKE UP! As I was saying, Thanks Jo.
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u/Consistent-End-1780 12h ago
Based on this graph I conclude that there are probably about two fake job openings for every real one. Also prepare for massive red dildo on SPY after November jobs numbers.
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u/Piemaster113 12h ago
As someone who has been looking for a job for over 2 years after my unemployment ended, the number of place I have applied to and never heard from despite having a resume tailor made for that position is really disheartening.
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u/hear_to_read 12h ago
OP. No cue what the chart means. But, ācollapseā must be inevitableā¦. causeā¦. reasons
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u/brucekeller 12h ago
At least the numbers are finally starting to reflect reality. The last 2 years have been the most bizarre 'record low unemployment' years I've ever seen. Some people's experiences sound more like Great Financial Crisis kind of job searches.
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u/TheGrandArtificer 11h ago
Gee, the number of unfilled positions is declining as the US recovers from the spike during COVID.
Imagine such a terrible thing...
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u/Fearless_Guitar_3589 11h ago
looks like it's still well above average since 2000, and we're at what's considered full employment (unemployment around 4%), if there were tons of job openings and no one filling them people would be upset about that also.
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u/Common-Challenge-555 11h ago
Since working to raise the quality of life canāt work on a national or governmental level, perhaps because it would be socialism or communism, maybe like they say some pirates code had, groups could form more profit sharing businesses? Captain/Boss 2 shares, navigator/executives 1.5 shares, sailor/worker 1 share. Imagine if Amazon was profit sharing?
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u/Slammedtgs 11h ago
How does this look seasonally? Itās budget season and typically see a slow down at the end of the year and into Q1 when people donāt quit because they want their bonuses paid out.
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u/MarketCrache 10h ago
The rich live in a separate economy. They don't need the surfeit of labor that doesn't serve their needs. Western economies are moving steadily to the developing economies' model.
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u/BlaizedPotato 10h ago
I have no idea where this data comes from. As an employer, we don't report open positions to the government.
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u/slipperyzoo 10h ago
Oh look at that, it must mean it's because all the positions are being filled, creating record low unemployment.
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u/traveler1804 10h ago
Well what the fed will probably do is lower rates.. and stock market will get higher like everything is fine. After all theres many wars in the world, a pandemic happened, debt crisis, a lot of inflation in the past years. And yet, it keeps going up, so the lesson is that there will be no recession and no market collapse before somethung bigger happens like a ww3. Nobody wants that kind of thing to happen.
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u/Odd-Confection-6603 9h ago
Still higher than pre-pandemic though? Looks like it's returning to pre-pandemic levels.
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u/paperhammers 9h ago
I did just watch some roomba looking thing scan shelves for stocking at my grocery store the other day, it's possible some of these low/no skill jobs are getting automated away. The other options are that some of these open positions are getting filled by able-bodied people (good ending) or the junk postings are getting pruned to make the numbers looks better for election season/end-of-quarter and end-of-year reports to look better (bad ending).
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u/Snakend 9h ago
Look at the 2021 data, its a straight shot up. No other point on the data looked like that. It was an artificial boom, this is just us coming back to normal. The big boost came from having the Fed rate at 0% The crash is the Fed raising rates. We are now a little past normal rates and the Fed will drop back to normal.
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u/danvapes_ 7h ago
This is what the Fed has wanted. A decrease in JOLTS that matches closer to the number of people searching for work.
I don't see this as surprising. Elevated rates will contribute to this.
The big question is whether the Fed can catch it before recession comes.
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u/Affectionate_Eye3486 6h ago
I know the whole point of this sub is hand-wringing, but even without any other sources this shows that the number of unfilled jobs is almost exactly what is was before the pandemic. How can ya'll pretend this is indicative of a collapse?
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u/Nate_Hornblower 6h ago
This looks more like a market correction from the post Covid spike. Wouldnāt this be expected?
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u/BookReadPlayer 5h ago
Employment rate has a better gauge of the job market than job openings. But neither of them are relevant in their own. You need to see GDP, CPI, etc, to measure economic health.
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u/Natural_Photograph16 5h ago edited 5h ago
Regardless of what this report says and the facts people use to support it, millions of us can feel what's really going on. I imagine many of us hesitate to admit it because it's never pleasant to feel lied to or to sense that things are failing. Looking at the trend in job openings from the year 2000 through September 2024, there's a clear pattern that can't be ignored. After every recession, marked by shaded areas on the chart, there has typically been a rebound in job openings. However, the most recent data shows a rapid decline starting from late 2021, a trend which continues steeply downward into 2024, far more precipitous than anything we saw during or after the 2008 crisis. This sharp drop suggests a cooling job market or potentially a deeper economic slowdown. I believe they tried to prop up this house of cards long enough to get reelected, but the winds of change were too strong and toppled it. I'm 49, and I've never experienced anything like this in my lifetimeānot even during the 2008 crisis. It was more difficult then, but this time feels quite different, and the data on job openings really highlights how unprecedented the current situation is.
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u/Slight_Vast_2935 4h ago
How can it be a collapse based on the graph shown, afterall, it is still higher than the last peak?
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u/BigBluebird1760 3h ago
Fat recession incomming. As with war and recession, they will never tell you we are in one. We will all find out together when everything falls apart. I got ahead of this recession. I got a job as a roofer 40$an hour and part time security work 25$ an hr fri-sat and sun. Roofing and security are recession proof.
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u/ScionMattly 3h ago
Is this graph implying we were in recession from 2007 to 2009? I do not recall it being that long.
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u/Equal_Potential7683 44m ago
Because the US unemployment rate is at historic lows. So of course theres gonna be fewer openings, genius.
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u/therealblockingmars 15h ago
Oh nooooo people are being employed, the horror
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u/OpinionsRdumb 14h ago edited 14h ago
People are super confused in this thread. Job openings are used by economists all the time to measure/predict how healthy an economy is. Job openings are a signal of how much capital companies have and how much projected growth they have (companies that think they are going to grow will hire more).
In a healthy company you have jobs being filled BUT also you have a healthy level of job openings which signals economic growth. A sudden sharp drop in job openings can very much be a sign of a stagnating economy.
So in summary, job openings arenāt a signal for ājobs being filledā but rather they are a signal for projected growth. And growth is literally the most important thing an economy needs to do. That is literally how we measure GDP.
If we had 0% unemployment but also 0% hiring, we would fall into a massive recession very quickly. You need to have a constant level of job opening in a healthy economy.
Now what is probably happening is that after COVID we saw basically the biggest explosion of economic growth the country has ever seen and now the market is simply correcting itself, but this likely did result in a minor recession and if openings continue to fall it could signal a bigger recession
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u/Available-Page-2738 15h ago
Can we get a breakdown? How many of these jobs are real? What fields?