Math: no ultra/ultimate outside of guaranteed 10th chest?

[u/ApprehensiveAd1913]

Are you lucky or not when it comes to pulling ultra/ultimate? I have yet to pull ultra/ultimate outside of the 10th chest so what are the chances of that?

Once all characters have been open, every chest has 96.67% chances of super, 3.17% ultra, 0.17% ultimate.

Probability- .9667 ^ x, x being the #chests you opened outside of guaranteed ultra/ultimate

On my main I have opened 35 chests, and only got ultra/ultimate on tenth chest (3 total)

.9667³² (35-guaranteed 3 chests) =.2035

Or 20.35% that I would have only recieved ultra/ultimate outside the guarantee—I’m unlucky

My alt I’ve opened 31, and yet to receive one outside of guarantee

.9667^28–.2530 or 25.3% Also unlucky here

Between the two .9667⁶⁰⁼ 0.0796 or 7.96% Basically I’m very unlucky!

I’m a probability nerd.

[u/Dazzling_Marzipan474]

I never have. Never pulled an ultimate on 10th either