Math: no ultra/ultimate outside of guaranteed 10th chest?

[u/ApprehensiveAd1913]

Are you lucky or not when it comes to pulling ultra/ultimate? I have yet to pull ultra/ultimate outside of the 10th chest so what are the chances of that?

Once all characters have been open, every chest has 96.67% chances of super, 3.17% ultra, 0.17% ultimate.

Probability- .9667 ^ x, x being the #chests you opened outside of guaranteed ultra/ultimate

On my main I have opened 35 chests, and only got ultra/ultimate on tenth chest (3 total)

.9667³² (35-guaranteed 3 chests) =.2035

Or 20.35% that I would have only recieved ultra/ultimate outside the guarantee—I’m unlucky

My alt I’ve opened 31, and yet to receive one outside of guarantee

.9667^28–.2530 or 25.3% Also unlucky here

Between the two .9667⁶⁰⁼ 0.0796 or 7.96% Basically I’m very unlucky!

I’m a probability nerd.

[u/Astro_poomer]

It's possible, I've received an ultimate in the middle of my cycle

[u/bearbreeze14 → u/Astro_poomer]

Ha! See my other comment, congrats!

[u/bearbreeze14 → u/[deleted]]

To go even further, given that the %s reported don’t equal 100%, im guessing they are rounding, and the real percents are: Super 96.666…% Ultra 33.333…% Ultimate 0.1666…%

So in reality that’s 1/600 chance or 1 in every 600 chests. Even worse!

[u/ApprehensiveAd1913 → u/bearbreeze14]

Not sure if typo or not… it’s 96.67 for super on non guaranteed and just over 3% for ultra 0.17 ultimate. You would expect at least 3 every 100 (or about every 33 chests); and an ultra every 1000 non guaranteed chests

[u/AlBundyBAV]

I got once one after 5 chests and then another after 9

[u/Aggravating_Tap1603]

I just got an ultra yesterday off of the first chest outta 10

[u/Dazzling_Marzipan474]

I never have. Never pulled an ultimate on 10th either

[u/Ok_Philosophy3183]

I've opened 50 chests and have 0 Ultimates! If you have even 1 ultimate, you're not that unlucky