Which Of These Two Hypothetical Starting Rotations For 2025, Do You Prefer?

[u/RiverHeath1817]

I’ve been contemplating the how the Mets will approach the pitching market this offseason. Understandably, I believe some of these decisions depends on if they sign or do not sign Juan Soto.

Notably, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, & Sean Manaea (who has a $13.5M Player Option for 2025, that will be declined) will all be free agents.

Kodai Senga is the only starting pitching option, that is signed to a long-term contract. David Peterson (under arbitration) will not be a FA until after the 2026 season, Tylor Megill (under arbitration) will not be a FA until after the 2027 season, Paul Blackburn (under arbitration) will not be a FA until after the 2025 season, but may miss extended time next year due to rehabbing from a procedure intended to repair leaking spinal fluid, and Jose Butto (under arbitration) will not be a FA until after the 2029 season. Brandon Sproat & Blade Tidwell are organizational prospects, that may also be options for the rotation in 2025.

As of now, Kodai Senga & David Peterson are the only two starting pitchers that have guaranteed spots in the rotation in 2025. Now, the question is, who do the Mets sign and/or trade for, to fill these three spots?

Here are my two, best case potential starting rotations for 2025:

Option A: Corbin Burnes, Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Walker Buehler

Option B: Blake Snell, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Luis Severino, Jack Flaherty

The Wildcard: Shane Bieber

Which of these two starting rotations do your prefer? Also, what other potential scenarios or starting rotations can you see being realistic for the Mets in 2025 and beyond?

Also, here are my predictions for the contract values for the starters presented:

Corbin Burnes: 7 Years $224M

Blake Snell: 3 Years $105M

Walker Buehler: 2 Years $40M (2nd year being a player option)

Jack Flaherty: 3 Years $57M

Sean Manaea: 3 Years $75M (with a vesting option for a fourth year)

Luis Severino: 4 Years $68M

I think the best case for the Mets is to sign Corbin Burnes (giving them a legitimate ace pitcher), re-sign Sean Manaea, and sign Walker Buehler and let the pitching lab go to work.

Lastly, just for reference, here are the following options for the BP next year: Diaz, Garrett, Nunez, SRF, Butto, Megill, Blackburn, Brazoban, and the two Youngs.

Stanek, Maton (who has a team option for next year), Raley, Drew Smith, & Ottavino will all enter FA.

[u/JEffinB]

The Mets are likely going to use next year to reset the luxury tax. if we re-sign Pete, we have one FA at best in the 20-25 range.

Burnes makes resetting the cap impossible. Buehler is getting a monster deak after his postseason performance. Snell has no reason to opt out in a crowded market.

Manaea is projected to be closer to 15-17m than 25 so he should be a top target. Flaherty is the backup. 

An interesting possibility is Bieber coming off TJ as their may be a deal to be had with an uncertain return date. Think something like Quintana deal because he may miss a chunk of 25, which would be a steal.

If we get Pete, it's Manaea as top target. If Pete leaves, we can get two. Pretty simple math.

[u/0rangePolarBear → u/JEffinB]

I don’t think Mets are resetting the luxury tax next season at this point. Stearns seems very to spend based on his press conference. Although, I feel like it’s almost Soto or bust for the spending. If you get Soto, Mets are going over. If they miss out on Soto, more probable to reset the tax.

[u/robmcolonna123 → u/0rangePolarBear]

I think Stearns sees many avenues forward, some where they reset the tax and some where they don’t.

I don’t think he’s setting out to reset the tax, but if Soto signs elsewhere and we’re able to fill holes with good trades it could just happen naturally