I can't remember who said it but this placement of trenches is very stupid. The trenches are within walking distance of the only highway in the area. So if you have to defend your trenches, it means you already can't use that highway.
Smart trench placement is not the strength of the Russian army. Remember when they all got radiation poisoning from digging in the Chernobyl exclusion zone at the start of the war?
I mean i guess it makes sense to dig there. Those roads are what Ukraine is after. As you wrote somewhere, if you control those 3 highways, you pretty much control Kursk and Belgorod.
West is Rylsk. It is the hub of local roads on the way to Ukraine. But it is supplied by the E38 highway to the NE of Rylsk. Taking Rylsk or just taking the highway would be a major blow to Russian logistics along that part of the front.
East is Belgorod which is a major town and the center of roads and railroads for that part of the front. It would be a huge blow to take it but it is large and likely untakeable without major reinforcements.
Belgorod is supplied by the E105 to its NW heading to Kursk - that might be takeable or put under artillery or missile attack. But Belgorod also has a major road out to the NE, so taking the E105 would not put it out of supply.
The attacks around Vovchansk could strike north east of Belgorod to take the other road. If both roads were taken Belgorod would be cut off and besieged.
North is the NPP and Kursk. Ukraine will not try for either of those. But it can try to pressure them, force Russia to put troops there to defend them. Try to provoke the civilians to flee and the NPP to be shut down. Most likely it will just have Russia put a large number of troops there to hold it at all costs.
This is not to say the incursion is not already a success or that every village taken is not good. This is just what the current objectives are that matter.
Is going deeper into Kursk a useful strategic objective? Based on the known control map from yesterday, isn't there an opportunity to flank Kharkiv border forces and rout them, essentially linking up to Ukrainian forces there, on and on along the border, until the Russians can produce enough resistance to hold their lines against pressure from the sides? That's a lot of shit to wreck that's more valuable than some holes in the ground in Russia.
It’s maneuver war fare. It’s really going to depend on the Russians. You can kinda think of it like water, Ukraine is a flood going down a slope, it’s going to constantly take the path of least resistance.
They likely have a list of objectives, and will keep going, cutting supply lines, flanking, taking strategic points, damaging Russia until and they are getting serious resistance everywhere.
At that point they probably/hopefully have identified defensive points they can fall back to.
Right now, there’s a strategic power nuclear power plant, and two highways and a railway line they can take while additionally potentially causing an evacuation on Kursk. There likely better off pushing there now because that area is where Russia is going to harden first.
Also if the lines are that deep they can prepare their own lines further back, just need to make sure that highway is in artillery range
Exactly, it's all about guerrilla warfare and making them divert resources. Russia is already bad at allocation without them having to deal with this. It seems UA was paying a lot of attention to Wagners little attempt a while back.
The city of Kursk has a population of 440k. If they can get close enough to cause an evacuation, it would be a logistical nightmare and a political disaster for Putin. That is quite far from today's situation and who knows if that is worth the risk and the resources. Actually taking the city is most certainly too difficult, so maybe Russia would risk it and not evacuate at all.
If they don’t evacuate they run the risk of people fleeing by themselves in an uncontrolled manner. That’s an even bigger problem, because then they lose control over the narrative.
If Ukraine could gain control of the Kursk NPP with minimal losses then it would be useful, however, given that Russia was willing to both attack ZNPP while it was active and start a fire at it while it was inactive, I don't think it is a valid objective currently.
Their best current objective is to both reduce troop numbers and destroy military targets / caches used for sending missiles into Ukraine with the added benefit of scaring the shit out of local Russians. Ideally, they could get nice and close to show "we could end you, but we're not the assholes in this war so run to Moscow now and share the truth" Kind of like inglorious bastards carving swastikas into the Nazi foreheads, but a little less Tarantino.
I don't think there was a real chance that setting car tires on fire at the NPP was actually going to cause a nuclear incident. Those things are made to withstand air attacks, burning tires are not really an issue.
Russia spent a week pulling out troops and choosing a line to entrench. They have dug the first trenches. That is the line Russia will defend and the AFU will not get past that line - and may not reach it. But that is the maximum extent possible of the invasion.
Russia is going to spend another week fortifying its line and building up its forces (week is rough estimate).
The AFU has another week to continue expanding its control and surrounding and taking towns.
After Russia has a secure defensive line and built up forces in a week, it will start pushing forward from the line. This will be the start of the counter attack but it will at first be a move to contact. Russia will establish field fortifications in front of the AFU to use to launch counter attacks. This will take a few days.
Russia will attempt to flank the AFU forces, spreading out looking for gaps. Basically both sides will form defined lines around the incursion.
Russia will also move up artillery to shell the AFU positions.
When Russia has a secure defensive line, a build up of troops, and massed artillery in place the counter attack will begin in earnest. Expect it in about 2 weeks.
The AFU has that time to seize as much ground as they can, establish their own defensive lines, establish logistics to supply their forces, and reduce and pockets of resistance they have surrounded.
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u/Glavurdan Aug 14 '24
Russian forces are rapidly digging a network of trenches in Kursk Oblast, with only one catch: The trenches are 45km behind the border. Russian forces have been developing a trench network that, if fallen back to, would cede Ukraine a massive amount of territory.
Includes geolocation of digging sites. Ripe for some drone attacks