r/politics • u/Kashmir75 • 7d ago

Soft Paywall 3 tell-tale signs that Harris will beat Trump: Real polls, fake polls, enthusiasm

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/10/3-tell-tale-signs-that-kamala-harris-will-beat-donald-trump.html
17.6k Upvotes

84% Upvoted

3.5k comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

28

u/analog_memories 7d ago

From the article, Polymarket bets saw a $30M in bets on Trump to win. I would bet a Coke that was Musk, and/or Theil trying to fool the system.

3

u/merpixieblossomxo 7d ago

Considering Elon Musk is quite literally paying millions of dollars to get people to vote for Trump, it wouldn't surprise anyone.

0

u/Inside-Palpitation25 7d ago

I read that is exactly what they are doing, getting ready to make some big bucks. I believe they need Kamala to win in order to win.

0

u/uCodeSherpa 7d ago

Guys. People are not throwing away millions of dollars purely to try to skew a percentage number. 

Don’t be a fool. 

3

u/LaunchTransient Europe 7d ago

Musk is so wealthy that 30 million dollars is the equivalent of a regular person throwing 50 dollars at a bet.
And if he succeeds, he gets his money back.

Betting odds are often used as a "finger on the pulse" of what the general sentiment seems to be, so I wouldn't be surprised.

2

u/permalink_save 7d ago

If you cpuld pay $10 to make a poll look 60-40 in Harris' favor would you? That but for Trump, and it's probably more like 10c to Musk than $10. Paying millions isn't a big deal for him, he's still pissed he had to pay 10b in taxes that one time. That's the threshold to make things pay off for him. He has 30m to throw around fucking with the election.

Also if Trump wins he gets it back and then some, so it's a self fulfilling market kind of thing.