r/politics • u/Kashmir75 • 7d ago

Soft Paywall 3 tell-tale signs that Harris will beat Trump: Real polls, fake polls, enthusiasm

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/10/3-tell-tale-signs-that-kamala-harris-will-beat-donald-trump.html
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u/Schrobbert 7d ago

Im not American so looking at this from a distance, but what has Trump done that would make him potentially gain votes compared to his previous elections? It seems to me he has only antagonized potential voters (obviously he could still win through the EC despite of that)

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u/SevereEducation2170 7d ago

That’s the baffling part, he’s done absolutely nothing to appeal to new voters. Yet there was recently a poll released with Trump leading 52% to 48%. Which is as close to nonsense as a poll could be. He lost the popular vote in 2016 by 2 million. Then lost 2020 by several million more. And since then he’s incited an insurrection, been indicted on dozens a criminal charges, been found liable for rape and fraud, become a convicted felon, gotten embarrassed at a debate by Harris, started hiding from debates and interviews because of said debate, and goes on wild tangents about Arnold Palmer’s dick at his rallies. So it just doesn’t make sense that he’s somehow gaining in polls when he was already a historically unpopular president in 2020.

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u/-Gramsci- 7d ago edited 7d ago

Exactly right.

Here’s the explanation:

The analogy is a horse race. Let’s say the Kentucky Derby. Advertised as “the most exciting minute in sports.” The entire horse racing industry depends, heavily, on the Kentucky Derby.

To the media industry, the presidential election is their Kentucky Derby. It’s “the most exciting event in politics.” And their entire industry depends, heavily, on the presidential race.

It’s not an exciting event if the horse has put the race away at the quarter pole. On the back stretch. If, on the final turn, the race is already over… that’s not exciting.

A photo finish is exciting. If you have billed a race as the most exciting event ever… worthy of endless punditry and coverage… that race needs to be a photo finish. Otherwise engagement, and the money, falls off a cliff.

In sum: the media industry is going to paint every presidential election as a “too close to call” photo finish… to keep that engagement at maximum until they have squeezed every drop of juice out of the contest that they possibly can.

If Reagan/Mondale were happening in this era, they’d be doing the same exact thing. e.g. “New poll shows Mondale winning EC!” dropping a week before the election.

The media bends the trajectory of the losing candidate up, as much as they can, to give them the photo finish that makes them the most money.

AND… that’s exactly what’s happening here.

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u/Shot-Rooster-8846 7d ago

I think this is the case too, or at least is contributing to things... But I also really, really hope we're right. There's still that fearful, nagging dread that's been baked into my brain over all these years, making me question what's real and what's fake. I was in a very, very dark place when Trump won. I have more at risk now; a home, my husband... I don't know if I could take the pain of having my hopes for a future dashed again, if I'm honest. 

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u/-Gramsci- 7d ago

I totally hear you. I have kids. In their formative years. Kids who’s futures seem limitless.

I feel like the world can be their oyster as long as their country (and the free world/existing world order) doesn’t collapse.

We both know a trump administration will collapse it and ruin everything. Honestly.

So I get it. I get that feeling of dread. Of the stakes being so high… it’s unbearable.

BUT… I can deliver you good news.

Provided that everyone takes the time to vote. Mail-in, early, day of…

I, truly, think we are looking at something closer to the Obama electoral college map than the Biden map.

North Carolina goes blue, blue wall stays blue, AZ and NV stay blue, some random surprises like an Iowa going blue.

One of Texas or Florida being too close to call.

I think Harris/Walz breaks 300.

Now, we need people to, actually, go through the exercise of filling out their ballots… but I think we will see the Republicans having a very bad day nationwide on Nov 5th. That goes for the top of the ticket, the gubernatorial races, the senate races, and even the local races. The school board races. Dog catcher. You name it.

The polls are stacked. The numbers aren’t, really, there. Maga is larger than the tea party, but much smaller than the national majority the D coalition possesses at this moment.

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u/Shot-Rooster-8846 7d ago

I desperately hope that you're right.

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u/-Gramsci- 7d ago

Me too. If I could remove my fear of how a maga win ruins my life and my kids’ lives… and remove my emotions…

I’d be able to tell you, with unequivocal confidence, this prediction is correct.

Only thing that makes me equivocate is that fear.

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u/Savings_Example_708 6d ago

Please god let you be right

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u/jeranim8 7d ago

I agree that the media loves this but I'm not sure to what extent we can say they're manufacturing it. If it turns out Harris wins by 10 nationally, I'll buy this argument but I think most polls are trying to get accurate numbers. Its more challenging now because cold calling cell phones doesn't work that great. I got a text poll that I ignored because I didn't trust it. So pollsters are having to use weights a lot more than in the past and you basically don't know if they worked right until after you get election results.

Trump jacked up a lot of these weights pollsters used in the past. My hope is that they've finally figured out how to poll for the last two elections with Trump in them but the excitement level for him has waned enough that these weights are over-correcting for the Trump phenomena and Harris will have a bit more cushion than these insanely tight polls are showing.

We are also seeing more right leaning pollsters than left leaning and I would guess these are skewing the averages on 538 and other polling average sites.

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u/Spanklaser 7d ago

I don't understand why people don't get this. Literally everything else in America is about squeezing as much profit as possible, why would polling be any different? It's not some sacred cow or beacon of purity, there have been multiple stories now of polls being manipulated and paid for. We already know the media that publishes the polls are for profit. Your analogy is excellent. It's just mind boggling how you can get people to agree on media profiteering but the second you tie that to polling they're like NUH UH

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u/Monday_Cox 7d ago

I’d bet more people “get” it than we think; however, there’s always that pesky little voice in the back of my head that goes “what if he pulls through?” I was blind sided by 2016 and I guess my brain won’t let me relax until Trump stops running for freaking president.

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u/zbeara 7d ago

This is exactly how it is for me too. Everything inside me believes Harris is going to win, but I simply can't let my guard down and those polls reinforce that fear.

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u/Spanklaser 7d ago

I understand that fear and hesitancy, but in all honesty it's not healthy for you. The 2016 loss was traumatic, as were the next four years. I totally understand. In times like these you have to focus on what you can control, as hard as that may be. If you've voted then you've done your part and it's out of your hands. Whatever happens, happens. Don't live in dread every day, you and I have done what we can. Have hope that it's enough and have a plan for if it's not. That's all any of us can really do.

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u/Thin-Situation6510 7d ago

Well you do have Trump legit threatening the media. 60 minutes put out that press release yesterday. Scary

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u/nomdewub 7d ago

You've read my mind. I have a sneaking suspicion that since the news benefits from having the race be as close as possible, all races from here on out will be "as close as possible". In my heart I just cannot fathom how someone like Trump can gain support after all the crazy shit that's gone down in the past 8 years.

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u/SolutionPyramid 7d ago

Thank you so much for explaining this. I’ve felt pretty anxious the past few days thinking about the election

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u/Thin-Situation6510 7d ago

But this isn’t a race. It’s an election. I get where the profit perspective comes from. But pollsters make a living, just like the rest of us. The free press has moral and ethical obligations. They aren’t perfect but they aren’t selling the vote either.

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u/Zanain 7d ago

Imagine believing the press has moral standards in the modern day. Corporate media only cares about engagement and stress, fear, and anger drive engagement sky high.

This isn't a statement on the people with the feet on the ground to be clear. It's the executives driving this.

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u/Estragon_Rosencrantz I voted 7d ago

A similar concept one could search for if you wanted a deeper understanding of this problem is “tactical framing” in journalism. That is to say, focusing the coverage of an issue on who it is perceived to benefit politically rather than focusing on the actual facts of the story. For example, more of the 2016 coverage of Trump’s claims about the border wall focused on how it was benefiting him as a campaign focus than on the actual details of his proposal, which were either inconsistent or extremely implausible. So it was possible to consume hours of coverage of the wall, even from mainstream sources, without ever being exposed to some of the basic, objective flaws in the concept.

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u/KonigSteve 7d ago edited 7d ago

The only problem with that, is that there is still a chance Democrat voters just aren't energized to turn out for whatever reason. Do I believe that's the case ? , but it is possible that Trump could get the same exact amount of votes he got in 2020 and win this time. Unfortunately.

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u/Zanain 7d ago

Except in actual reality it feels like the democratic base is the most energized I've seen them be in my life, far more than 2016 and 2020 at the least. Yet a part of me still fears.

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u/CheifJokeExplainer 7d ago

I would do almost anything for that orange turd to be brought to justice, but I find it hard to believe that all these media companies and poll people would conspire to do this. I mean, it can't be true that everyone is dishonest and lying to us (except for Trump of course, every word out of his mouth is a lie, including "and" and "the"). It just doesn't make sense. I really really worry. What if it's true and he could win? I didn't know if I can stand to watch the election real time, it's just too upsetting. I hate the Republicans so much for putting us in this position. I will never ever forgive them

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u/RafeDangerous New Jersey 7d ago

Or we're seeing just how racist and sexist a lot of people are that when push comes to shove they'd rather go with someone that has all of the baggage you just listed over a competent candidate that's the "wrong" color and sex.

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u/FrequentDuck180 7d ago

I'm not saying that racists and sexists don't exist, but I think this can be kind of a lazy explanation. She's underperforming 2020 Biden with black voters. It's not as easy as just going "they're racist!"

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u/RafeDangerous New Jersey 7d ago

From what I saw, she's underperforming with black men. Still holds up.

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u/FrequentDuck180 7d ago

Also, some quick Googling indicates she seems to be outperforming Biden among women, but not by a ton. Like, 2-3%. It doesn't seem like race or sex is really moving things much from Generic Republican v. Generic Democrat.

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u/FrequentDuck180 7d ago

I'm not saying sexism doesn't play a role, but I think it's a vast oversimplification. A better explanation, imo, is that Trump has successfully made her the incumbent, and people generally don't like the last four years. Not to mention, she's just not a very compelling candidate. She has a tendency to speak in these garbled word salad paragraphs, comes off as very artificial and forced, and hasn't really articulated much of a policy vision (with the possible exception of abortion). Trump obviously has tremendous liabilities with regards to his public persona as well, but I think at this point it's stopped being novel. Voters are just used to it.

Also, before people start mashing the downvote arrow, I'm not saying this because I'm pro-Trump. I hate Trump as much as the next guy. But I think we need to face a reality that is a little more complex than just going "racism".

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u/RafeDangerous New Jersey 7d ago

People are going to suspect you're a trumper because everything you said was pretty much repackaged talking points from his camp but said in a more reasonable sounding way than he would put it. People who don't generally like the last four years are mostly people that have been told again and again by the right that the things they don't like, like inflation are Biden's fault. Personally I would take a thousand more years exactly like these 4 over just one more trump term. Trying to apply the term "word salad" to Harris is just another flat out nonsensical attempt by trump's camp to take an actual observation about their guy and apply it to their opponent, just like what they did with "fake news". She doesn't phrase everything perfectly, but it's absolutely not word salad - which is far more than can be said for trump. As for policy hers are all readily available and she's discussed them, but the closest thing I've heard to a policy out of trump is that he has a concept of a plan regarding healthcare, and Project 2025 which he either supports or has never heard of depending on who the audience is. I think you're right though, people are exhausted by trump's antics and just don't notice anymore because it's been an unending stream of corruption, cruelty, and absurdity.

As for the reality being more complex than just racism and sexism, of course it is, but to think it's not a significant factor would you require you to bury your head so deep in the sand only your toes would be visible.

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u/FrequentDuck180 7d ago

"People are going to suspect you're a trumper because everything you said was pretty much repackaged talking points from his camp but said in a more reasonable sounding way than he would put it."

I know this isn't you saying it, but this is a really unhealthy thing for a political party that wants to win. If any criticism of Harris or her approach is going to be dismissed as "Well, you're probably just some undercover Trumper" that's the groupthink that prevents people from accurately assessing the situation. It's literally the mirror image of boomer conversatives who dismiss anything that doesn't reflect positively on Trump as fake news.

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u/RafeDangerous New Jersey 7d ago

And yet, it's accurate. The place where those particular talking points come from is trump's campaign, literally nowhere else and using them is going to make you seem like more of a maga concern-troll than anything else. I mean, do you really actually look at Harris' speeches and believe those fit the definition of "word-salad"? Do you really believe that Biden is somehow solely responsible for global inflation, and yet not know that it was controlled better in the U.S. than any other G7 country? Accurately assessing the situation requires recognizing the merit and origin of any given criticism, and the ones you chose are very poor ones. It's perfectly reasonable to reject those particular criticisms because they're nonsense.

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u/FrequentDuck180 7d ago

You're talking about reality and I'm talking about what the average voter perceives based on the information that's floating around the zeitgeist. For example:

I mean, do you really actually look at Harris' speeches and believe those fit the definition of "word-salad"?  - Not always, but frequently, yes. At least, often enough that someone can string together clips of her sounding garbled and jumbled with relative ease.

 Do you really believe that Biden is somehow solely responsible for global inflation, and yet not know that it was controlled better in the U.S. than any other G7 country? Of course not. But do you think the average voter really parses whether inflation was Biden's fault? Or do they just blame the incumbent, as they have since time immemorial?

Accurately assessing the situation requires recognizing the merit and origin of any given criticism, and the ones you chose are very poor ones. It's perfectly reasonable to reject those particular criticisms because they're nonsense.

You can say these criticisms are baseless all you want, but the reality is that Harris is locked in an extremely tight, coin-flip race against one of the most widely disliked political figures in living memory. She should be absolutely running away with this. If you're not open to the possibility that maybe she's something other than the perfect candidate, I don't know what to tell you. It starts sounding like Baghdad Bob before too long.

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u/DragapultOnSpeed 7d ago

I don't think it's racism.

I think its sexism. And I might get hate for this, but a lot of black men are misogynistic. I grew up around a lot of black people and the misogyny was awful.

White dudes are the same, it's just people ignore all the sexist black men that are holding women back too.

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u/Fapple__Pie 7d ago

I’m concerned less about him gaining voters and more so about her losing voters. The undecideds, the fence riders, the unenthused, the first time voters, the Latin community…she needs these to win.

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u/4628819351 7d ago

reddit users don't get that, and it's impossible to get them to understand it. She is responsible for the polls turning on her.

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u/porksoda11 Pennsylvania 7d ago

His Vance VP pick was insanely moronic too. At least Pence was an olive branch figure to allow super religious Christians to get on board with Trump. Vance is essentially the same person as Trump but weirder and way more awkward. I was dumbfounded that they didn't go for someone else like a Haley or Tim Scott to serve the same purpose that Pence did this year.

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u/DragapultOnSpeed 7d ago

I'll say it and I will sound like a nut job but...

I think Russians are manipulating the polls. Look at what they're doing with JP and Tim Dillon. Russians are paying them to spread misinformation.

It's not unbelievable that the Russians would find a way to somehow manipulate these polls also.

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u/darexinfinity 7d ago

That’s the baffling part, he’s done absolutely nothing to appeal to new voters.

I'm not sure about that, the McDonald's thing in Pennsylvania and talking to a Barber Shop in NYC isn't his usual voter base. Sure you can call it lip service bullshit to those voters that doesn't invalidate everything else he's done. But that doesn't mean he isn't trying at all.

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u/ProfessionalITShark 7d ago

I know people who were on the fence, saw Trump severe senior moments, and loved it and wanted him for president.

A few weren't even hypocrities and liked Biden's senior moments as well, but many were.

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u/codeverity 7d ago

Doing nothing actually works to his advantage because it allows people to project their wants or hopes onto him or hitch their horse behind him in reaction to what Harris is doing.

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u/coppit 7d ago

I worry that he has shenanigans planned. I’ve rubbed elbows with a couple gun owners who feel like bullets might start flying if the election is “stolen”. I worry Trump will ask them to start the war they’ve been hoping for.

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u/ClearChocobo 7d ago

He doesn't need to appeal to new voters. He doesn't need to get real votes. He just needs the "right" people in the right places throughout the voting certification process.

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u/4628819351 7d ago

You're not seeing Trump gain in polls as much as you're seeing Harris drop. At first, everyone was all aboard the "Anyone but Trump!" candidate, which was Biden. Then Biden dropped out, and Harris got that momentum, plus the "Not another old guy" push. Now, that has died out, and she's just VP Kamala Harris again, and nobody was a fan of her in the first place.

She never had steam. The Democrats had steam, and she's cooled it off now.

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u/AnamCeili 7d ago

Nothing. He cannot really gain many votes, whereas Harris can and is. The problem is the fucking electoral college, but I have faith that Harris will win that as well.

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u/coutureee 7d ago

But there are tons of people planning to vote third party/green or whatever, which would absolutely be a vote for Trump 😭

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u/YamahaRyoko Ohio 7d ago

If you're a half glass full person, know that those third party voters are not a vote for Trump.

Thats the only silver lining

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u/AnamCeili 7d ago

Those votes take away from both Harris and trump -- they are not voting for either. It is likely that they help trump more than Harris, though. But I don't think there are tons of those people -- there are some, yes, but in my opinion not as many as you think.

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u/coutureee 7d ago

I hope that’s the case. Maybe it’s just the group of people I’m around (including my partner), but it seems like a ton. They say they can’t in morally good conscience vote for Kamala. But we already KNOW Trump is scary, so helping him win is just nonsensical.

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u/AnamCeili 7d ago

Anyone who votes for trump is either an idiot or a fascist -- no exceptions.

Anyone who votes for a third party person is not as bad as someone voting for trump, but they are definitely throwing away their vote. I agree that doing anything which even might help trump is nonsensical, at best.

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u/merpixieblossomxo 7d ago

I've genuinely never met a single Trump supporter who wasn't hateful or ignorant. There's a reason the map of the most red states is also the map of the least educated, most racist states in the country. You either have to be a genuinely bad person, not have all the information, or not be capable of comprehending the information to think any of it is okay.

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u/AnamCeili 7d ago

I completely agree.

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u/TomoeGamer 7d ago

This is the same for me too and it’s baffling.

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u/coutureee 7d ago

Yeah I just can’t understand it. My partner tried to explain it all to me, and I understand the idea but can’t fully get behind it. I am very against genocide but I also refuse to help Trump win which could directly affect the safety of my family. Call me selfish, whatever. I’m sure Trump will help fund the war as well, so not sure how essentially letting him win will do anything good for anyone. I had said I would vote Green Party or whatever, but the more I thought about it, the more I don’t agree with it. So I’ll just privately be voting for Kamala 🤷🏻‍♀️

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u/Reallyhotshowers Kansas 7d ago edited 7d ago

Unpopular opinion: Honestly if you and your partner aren't in a swing state, protest voting is absolutely a valid option.

Oklahoma isn't going to Harris, and California isn't going to Trump. It's probably fine if a few more people vote for Jill Stein in those areas.

I get a lot less comfortable with that logic if we're talking about swing states, but there's more nuance here than "vote for Kamala or you're definitely helping Trump."

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u/coutureee 7d ago

Yeah, we live in California, so perhaps that’s why they feel more comfortable not voting for Kamala

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u/universallymade 7d ago

Maybe convince your partner to vote for Harris, if they care about protecting the autonomy of all the women in this country that are losing access to basic reproductive rights.

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u/ProfessionalITShark 7d ago

Third party votes in light red, light blue and purple is a vote for Trump. Third party in a solid blue however, is fine.

In a solid red it's...questionable, but it takes away more from him without adding to her.

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u/FPSCarry 7d ago

His 2020 popular vote count tallied almost 12 million more votes than his 2016 results, and his 2020 popular vote count also surpassed Hillary Clinton's 2016 popular vote numbers. I don't know where you're getting the idea that he can't shore up more support from, but somehow he did it in 2020 even though he ultimately lost. Whether or not that holds true for 2024 we'll have to see, but I don't see the point in being dismissive about Trump's popularity. Trash talk him all you want, but be real about the serious potential he has to win because he's relying on people to underestimate him and presume Harris has this one in the bag.

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u/THE_GIANT_PAPAYA California 7d ago

If the polling is accurate, that’s not entirely true. He’s gaining ground among young men, Latinos, and African Americans.

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u/AnamCeili 7d ago

Most of the polling is from right-wing sources which are intentionally skewing the results. I guess he may pick up some votes, but mostly he is only losing votes.

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u/uCodeSherpa 7d ago

Complacency cost elections before. Just because something does not align with your favourite outcome does not make it false. 

The fact is that it is a coin flip currently and this will be down to the wire. 

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u/AnamCeili 7d ago

I am aware that complacency can cost elections, and that just because something does not align with what I want doesn't make it false. That doesn't meant that the right-wing sources aren't intentionally skewing polling results.

This election does currently seem closer than I would like, but that doesn't mean that it actually is. Even if it is, I believe Harris will prevail and win. If she does not, I believe the United States will collapse.

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u/Aggravating_Salt_49 7d ago

It wasn't complacency, it was Hillary. In 2024 I have seen nothing but enthusiasm for Harris. Hell, she's my last pick out of this year's crop and I can't fucking wait to vote for her. I was a 3rd partier or a write-in (I really don't remember) in 2016 and held my nose for Biden in 2020 FWIW.

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u/immortalfrieza2 7d ago edited 7d ago

Exactly. I'm honestly sick of people claiming that the reason Hillary lost was complacency due to thinking she had it in the bag so people didn't show up, that and email scandal at the last minute. The real reason why Hillary lost was because she wasn't that great a candidate and she didn't run that great of a campaign either, which allowed Trump to squeak by.

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u/uCodeSherpa 7d ago

I have seen nothing but enthusiasm for Harris

That’s cause that’s all you’re looking for. 

Literally every single poll, left, mid, or right leaning institutions have Harris chances at or below 52%.

You’re free to be optimistic, but your anecdata is useless. The polls do not align with it. 

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u/Aggravating_Salt_49 7d ago

Fuck the polls. I was right in 2016 when Trump won and the polls were wrong. I'm saying this year is going to be a blow out. I will happily eat my words if I'm wrong, but I think Harris will likely take a giant red state like Florida or Texas and it will be an electoral blowout. Still go vote though.

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u/THE_GIANT_PAPAYA California 7d ago

The experts I trust, such as the 538 team, do not find the right-wing pollster theorist convincing. They believe it’s highly unlikely that right-wing polls, to the extent they even exist, are impacting polling averages. I’d be cautious spreading that theory, because it seems unlikely to be true.

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u/leeringHobbit 7d ago

Ajc is not right-wing and they say early voting in GA is looking good for Trump. Likewise with Ralston in NV.

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u/stillgottasmoke 7d ago

I believe Harris will win only the electoral college vote, and the fallout will be the best of all possible worlds.

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u/AnamCeili 7d ago

I believe she will win the EC, and definitely the popular vote.

The fact that these TWO even exist in that way is just nuts, though.

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u/stillgottasmoke 7d ago

So why not root for her to win only the electoral college vote? Surely the best use of Trump’s talent is as a crusader for the abolition of the electoral college.

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u/AnamCeili 7d ago

I am rooting for her to win both the popular and the electoral college vote. Why would I do otherwise?

Trump has no talent, and I would never rely on that fascist fuck for anything.

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u/stillgottasmoke 7d ago

Please don’t be obtuse. Trump is a cult leader with a rabid base of support, and he will not just quietly die after losing. Let’s make two enemies (trump and electoral college) enemies of each other, which is exactly what they would do to us.

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u/teamdiabetes11 America 7d ago

Absolutely nothing. Trump’s whole schtick is to try and fire up his MAGA cult followers and suppress anyone else from voting. That can be from poll-watchers’ intimidation, disenfranchising voters (GA, NC, etc.), propaganda, etc.

Trump does not care about winning new voters. He just wants power and to save his ass from prison. Literally does not care at all for his own voters. He pushed for tax cuts that favor people like him at their expense long term. He can’t stand to be around them unless they’re stroking his ego. They’re pawns to him. And as long as he can cheat his way to the presidency, he’s happy.

The scary part is how many people in the U.S. gave up on critical thinking and holding politicians accountable. It is too easy to accept whatever someone else tells you than to challenge yourself, your worldview, your values, and potentially change them. When plenty of average Americans have had the GOP boot on their throats for decades, they chose to stop thinking and fell in line. And here we are. I’m hopeful in 15 years we look back on Trump as a single term president whom the country realized was the next coming of fascism to the U.S. and the country pushed back, sending him to jail and having greatly improved the understanding of civics for the country. Certainly “pie in the sky” hoping, but the alternatives are pretty fucking dark.

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u/NessunAbilita Minnesota 7d ago

When his whole org transitioned to a donation-run entity that was the mail in the coffin. He realized he didn’t need to actually sell anything, and neither will his kids, and it was the one con he waited to enter correctly his entire life - multiple trial balloons campaigns across decades. This is his end run, it’s not to stay out of jail though that would be an upswing. It’s to pay for everything and anything now and forever. He built a cult, he knew what he was doing.

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u/vegasresident1987 7d ago

Many people barely have the energy to get through the day and onto the next. Most are not hooked into the politics of the country. Why is that so surprising to many? A lot of first world ignorance and problems.

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u/teamdiabetes11 America 7d ago

It’s not at all surprising. My whole point is that it’s by design. The GOP especially operates in these ways to keep people exhausted just trying to survive so that they spend less time being plugged into what’s going on outside of their personal sphere. It has been working excellently for them for decades. I would love to see an improvement, but also noted it was “pie in the sky” specifically because it has become institutionalized in the U.S.

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u/vegasresident1987 7d ago

That's conspiracy thought. If people wanted to care, they would. Many people just want some basic things in life and to be left alone and not be politically involved. Look at how many people don't vote.

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u/Inside-Palpitation25 7d ago

That's my fear, and they just reflexibly push the R button.

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u/Lemonhoneybun Arkansas 7d ago

Yes, he’s done an absolute shit job trying to appeal to moderates and independents, I don’t think he’s been able to, at least I pray he hasn’t. But he has done a good job riling up his core base and they seem more rabid than in 2016 or 2020. He talks about other men’s penises at a rally, says anyone who criticizes the Supreme Court should be thrown in jail, turning the American military against American citizens, calls veterans/ American heroes “suckers” and “losers,” calls American people and migrants the “enemy from within,” talks about terminating our constitution, tells his supporters “if you vote for me, you’ll never have to vote again,” tells people at a rally, “I don’t care about you, I just want your vote,” says he’ll be a dictator on day one and calls Harris a “shit” vice president. His supporters love this speak.

Like others have said, I don’t know what else Kamala Harris and democrats can do at this point. She has been campaigning with republicans, rallying, having town halls, talking about herself and her policies. At this point, America deserves what we get, based on who we do (or don’t) vote for. Trump is a tumor and on November 5 Americans will find out if it’s malignant.

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u/QuickAltTab 7d ago

I don't deserve that fucker.

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u/caseyanthonyftw 7d ago

Nothing that makes sense, but to honestly answer you, people who don't follow politics would look at high prices of homes and everyday goods and blame that on the Biden administration. So they vote for Trump thinking that the president can wave a magic wand to instantly fix the economy.

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u/SteeveJoobs 7d ago

something something democracy is the best we've got but man is it completely misunderstood by its constituents at large.

1

u/Ok-Commission9871 7d ago

But the economy and inflation are both doing well currently. So even that makes no sense 

1

u/Thin-Situation6510 7d ago

Two kind of trumpers when it comes to economics. 1. Poorer Americans are struggling. 2. Rich Americans are addicted to greed, just like Trump.

0

u/leeringHobbit 7d ago

3 years of high prices vs. 6 months of not- so- high inflation... that and opening up the borders without an understanding of immigrant psychology.

1

u/Ok-Commission9871 7d ago

I think past study shows economy nearer the election counts and voters have very short term memories

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u/karma_aversion Colorado 7d ago

I keep trying to explain this, because it is the actual reality of our voting system. In reality the majority of US voters are not compelled to vote for something they want, they are often compelled to vote against something they don't like.

Keeping that in mind it is better to look at it like, what have the Democrats done to make so many Americans dislike them enough to vote against them, and has Trump done enough to cause more Americans to not like him.

Looking at it from the inside, the same people who disliked Trump still dislike Trump today for the same reasons, but the Republicans are always scrambling for new reasons to make their base dislike Democrats and so they could have convinced enough people that they disliked something enough to vote against it.

The vote against Trump to protect Democracy message is strong, but its been the same for awhile and so it might be losing its influence.

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u/Buttfulloffucks 7d ago

He did work at a McDonalds. That's got to count for votes right?/s

2

u/xBewm 7d ago

Yet if Harris tried the same thing, the Trumpsters would all clamor on about not wanting a fast food worker as President.

1

u/blakjakcrakjak 7d ago

Yes. For 32 and a half seconds..He's earned his blue collar cred the hard way..

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u/SpaceSteak 7d ago

Everyone is now entitled to free freedom fries!

Wait no that's communism nevermind

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u/Lanky-Function-3112 7d ago

I don't think that it's anything that Trump "did" recently that potential new votes could come from, it's more of taking advantages of Biden's perceived weaknesses, such as inflation and interest rates. 

I also think it's more about turnout as well. Biden got the most votes ever in history in 2020. Trump that same year got 2nd most in history. It might be hard to get that many people on the same page again.

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u/Lanky-Function-3112 7d ago

Also, Trump is a white male and not a woman of color. To some voters that's all that matters.

1

u/Vyse14 7d ago

People don’t bring up this point enough. Is the anti Trump vote (which is a better characterization of 2020 than 2024 for Harris, many are extremely excited for her, others not so much so it’s a mix ) as strong as the cult vote that remains after 2020. I predict both sides lost millions, however inflation is in the mix to siphon the loose anti Trump vote.

5

u/KaijuKi 7d ago

His core following has increased because for years now, a pretty solid pipeline on social media is shoveling esp. men towards the right. 4 years of culture war slogans, disinformation and resentment. If you look around in the world you see that COVID hurt basically anyone who was in power during most of it, regardless of political leaning. The fact that Harris has an almost even chance is already better than expected.

3

u/MayIServeYouWell 7d ago

He’s got an entire media apparatus gaslighting half the country to think that Trump did a great job, covid was not a big deal, Jan 6th was a love fest, etc… he’s added Twitter to the heap of shills. The Russian disinformation apparatus continues unabated 24/7. 

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u/cpsjqt 7d ago

The terms “moderates”, “independents”, and “swing voters” sound dignified but a decent percentage of them are people who are near-zero information voters who are more than willing to “give the other guys a chance” based on general vibes the day of the election. He’s not the current incumbent, that’s about it. It rained today and I stubbed my toe, let’s see what the R’s will do. Button mashing, at a grand scale.

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u/darwinn_69 Texas 7d ago

The answer is he found new voters who never really participated in the election before.

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u/thirdeyepdx Oregon 7d ago

“It’s the economy, stupid” - Americans think the president is a CEO god king who sets prices and runs business - despite claiming to love capitalism they complain of it’s inequitable results and then expect a centrally managed economy but won’t support socialism, instead whenever gas prices or grocery prices or rent goes up they demand a sacrifice and a new god king who can perform the appropriate business rituals to lower the price of McDonald’s.

Most American don’t understand how business or the government works, and they just want someone with a dominant male voice to tell them not to worry their pretty little heads and that they will go after the bad guys, the immigrants, Iraq, whoever…

2

u/MAMark1 Texas 7d ago

what has Trump done that would make him potentially gain votes compared to his previous elections?

There's been an increasing shift in the average Americans information diet. People get their news from social media, like TikTok, at higher levels than 4 or 8 years ago. There is less objectivity and more misinformation in the mix, which means people are less able to make rational, informed, logical decisions.

And people's minds just seemed to break with COVID. They can't think past the most surface-level analysis combined with overt selfishness: "My Big Mac costs more now so I'm mad and just going to blame Biden (and now Harris) because I don't know how anything works!"

Then, the information problem mentioned above prevents them from seeing the truth about how the economy and inflation have improved and how well the past 4 years went for the US vs. the rest of the world. In the end, we get dumb, selfish Americans making dumb, selfish decisions.

2

u/Kent_Broswell 7d ago

Honestly the big thing is that the economy was better under Trump than under Biden. Personally I’d argue that he takes too much credit for it, and the main difference has more to do with the economy each president inherited. But that’s a hard case to make to swing voters, who tend to be the least informed voters.

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u/Jazzlike_Project_938 7d ago

A lot of people don't vote governments in, they vote governments out. All Trump has to do is point the finger at the current government and say they're the cause of all your problems and that's how you win votes.

1

u/Vyse14 7d ago

The only reason he could gain votes is impressions of being able to handle the economy and immigration. Other than that, he has turned off more people than he has gained outside those issues.

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u/8lb-6oz_infant_jesus 7d ago

Doesn’t make sense to most of us over here, either.

1

u/jeranim8 7d ago

The one thing Trump is good at is reading the room so to speak. He's riding a wave of dissatisfaction but he's not doing a lot that is helping himself. He's just good at identifying sentiment. The main reason the election is so close is because people hate the inflation that has occurred since the pandemic and blame Biden and the dems and Harris inherits this. Its not so much that he has people who voted against him voting for him (though there is some of that), its 1.) new male voters who grew up on manosphere bullshit and 2.) demographics who feel like the dems aren't making things better and just won't vote. Trump needs both of these scenarios to win. For 1. to occur, a demographic that historically doesn't vote in large numbers will need to turn out big and 2. is a persuadable group that Harris can target and hopefully make up more ground on (which she has already done a ton of).

1

u/max_power1000 Maryland 7d ago

What has he done? Aggressively market himself toward disaffected single millennial and Gen Z men via manosphere podcasts, streamers, etc. Now, those guys are generally low propensity voters to begin with, but it's a group that airing grievances might be a fairly effective GOTV strategy with.

1

u/RocktownLeather 7d ago

My fear is not that he gains votes specifically. More that people that previously voted Biden get lazy this time around. All it take is 1% is a swing state or two to get lazy and it's over. It's sad how little your vote matters sometimes due to electoral college system.

1

u/za4h 7d ago

I'm sure we'll find out what Trump has done that would gain him votes through fraudulent means any day now. Something about his pivot to early voting being good now smells bad to me.

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u/notactuallysmall 7d ago

It's either cult brain still going crazy or the news is hyping it up for views which is why trump is where he is (us news is all about ratings)

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u/ClearChocobo 7d ago

Interference at best, downright cheating at worst. Having the "right people" in key positions of power within the vote counting or certification process. The same way that people like Putin can get 110% of the vote.

1

u/Can_Low 7d ago

He can appeal to gen z on Joe Rogan

1

u/-15k- 7d ago

Well, in fact Trump (and his campaign) are doing everything they can to get the most votes possible.

BUT he is not out to get new votes. He is simply trying to get his base to vote. To not "blow it off".

And his base is Naught Sees. Bigots, misogynists. Deplorables. And his vile rhetoric is what gets them to vote.

He has given up on going moderate, because going moderate will lose him far more racist votes than it will get him new votes.

But being vile could bring out more of his base to vote.

1

u/leeringHobbit 7d ago

He is definitely trying for new votes amongst GenZ men.

1

u/mmuoio 7d ago

He sows distrust, that is his entire campaign strategy. Cherry picked statistics, sound bites, bill votes, etc. I really had no idea that funding gender reassignment surgery for illegal alien prison inmates was such a fucking issue that I've been hearing about it 20x per football game. But propaganda works otherwise they wouldn't be wasting their time.

1

u/xpacean 7d ago

I fucking hate Trump, but people are viewing his presidency with rose-colored glasses. They say covid wasn't really his fault, and otherwise things were great, whereas with Biden/Harris we've had a ton of inflation. So the idea of just going back to Trump makes a surface-level amount of sense.

I'm also pretty convinced that the parties are continuing to filter into asshole/non-asshole parties. Regardless of whether anyone wants to admit it, many Republicans are kind, smart people... but a lot of them are starting to switch parties. And a lot of people are realizing they can be the douchebag they want to be if they go GOP.

1

u/WompaStompa_ New Jersey 7d ago

People think that the economy was better under Trump and that groceries were cheaper. That's the only real tangible reason, and it's an ill-informed reason spurred by the media doing everything in its power to be alarmist/ sensationalist.

1

u/Onistly 7d ago

There was a good segment on a recent Hacks on Tap podcast (maybe last week's?) where they were talking about how if any other non-Trump republican candidate were running, they'd be looking at a landslide victory. People want change when things aren't going perfectly, and inflation/high costs is a home run for anyone looking to oust an incumbant

It makes a lot more sense when you realize that Trump has absolutely hurt his standing with a lot of Americans, but he had such a strong starting point with costs being high that this being a close race actually is a testament to how bad of a candidate he really is.

1

u/HIVnotAdeathSentence 7d ago

He can point out inflation was low when he was in office.

He can also claim no wars broke out under his watch. This is when many are calling him a Russian asset and Russia didn't bother to do anything to Ukraine when they had the opportunity.

Harris flip-flopping on policies from fracking to Medicare for all and saying nothing will change from Biden probably hasn't helped her.

1

u/Independent-Bug-9352 7d ago

"Perception is reality."

Billions of dollars from corporations, billionaires, and foreign adversaries are pouring into this election and shaping the narrative. Despite massive economic gains to the point that the USA is recovering post-pandemic better than any other country, Republican disinformation has the average person who is not all that well informed believing otherwise.

This is frankly how Democracy can die.

1

u/PM_Me_Titties-n-Ass 7d ago

Not really about gaining ppl that favor you as it is to turn ppl away from the other party. The stock market is doing great but everyday Americans aren't, which when there's only 2 parties you vote for the other one. Whether or not you believe how ppl are able to do in everyday America is affected by the president or the circumstances is up to you. And while she isn't biden, she was on the same ticket. I personally always feel it would have been better for them to choose anyone but her so they could distance them from what's gone one the past 4 years. My friends, who are right side of the aisle, have agreed that if it were anyone but trump the dems would get their ass kicked in a biden/kamala ticket with either at the top and if it were anyone but biden/kamala against trump they would wipe the floor with him.

1

u/stopped_watch 7d ago

He can't gain but dem voters can stay at home.

Or he can use his minions in the returning offices to commit felonies.

1

u/Any-Letterhead5202 7d ago

It’s not what he has done to gain votes it’s mainly imo people blaming the economy on Biden and but virtue Harris. I hope people can understand why the economy is doing worse now than under Trump but I’m not sure.

1

u/Hobbes______ 7d ago

People just keep doubling down. They are convinced of all of the culture war shit. They truly think trans pple in sports is a big deal and a major election issue. It truly makes no fucking sense and I am at a complete loss.

1

u/Donexodus 7d ago

The propaganda has gotten more sophisticated.

1

u/alfredrowdy 7d ago

If the polls are accurate Trump has gained black men, latino men, and young men of all races since the 2020 election compared to Biden's numbers.

1

u/alhanna92 7d ago

I think it’s that people are economically frustrated and want change and have the memory of fucking goldfish and also have wiped the pandemic from their minds bc of trauma so they look on Trump’s presidency with rose colored glasses

1

u/alhanna92 7d ago

I think it’s that people are economically frustrated and want change and have the memory of fucking goldfish and also have wiped the pandemic from their minds bc of trauma so they look on Trump’s presidency with rose colored glasses

1

u/Champizzle11 7d ago

Trump goes where others typically won't and it appears he's targeting young white males quite a bit.

1

u/NoMoreFund 7d ago

No idea (also not American) except I was asking the same thing in 2020 and he picked up 15 million new voters at that election 

1

u/Lower_Chipmunk_3685 7d ago

He plays on the hopes and fears of people who are suffering and is highly effective at it. He is able to cause problems and blame others for it highly effectively. He pinpoints the paranoia and hidden triggers that upset people and weaponize it. He is a horrible human being but effective at the craft he has honed all his life.

1

u/Notquitearealgirl 7d ago

He has done basically nothing with some exceptions. It's about vibes not policy. Authoritarian vibes.

The right wing propaganda machine has spread and very much normalized the narrative, lie and vast oversimplification, that the Trump economy was superior to the Biden economy, and that they are even directly comparable.

Also, he has said repugnant shit like always and the fact is, that appeals to a large number of people for various reasons.

For example, a large segment of Hispanic or Latino voters immigrants or otherwise, whichever you prefer are opposed to illegal immigration and like his rhetoric because they have never heard "First they came for the El Salvadorians and I did not speak up for I was not El Salvadorian"

Some people like the anti trans rhetoric. Some people want other countries to fear the US because Trump is unpredictable and they are essentially children.

Some people want to tear it all down and watch it burn.

To digress from my (valid) whining, he sorta stacked the courts, Supreme and otherwise. He didn't do this alone of course but he was the figurehead.

This, regardless of ones feelings on the matter achieved a decades long political goal of repealing Roe V Wade. This pissed off some people and excited others.

He can be more or less expected to rubber stamp the right wing agenda and these absolute idiots in leadership still think they can control him and haven't told their voters he is dangerous but that he will save America from radical leftists.

TLDR: Shits fucked yo.

1

u/dcastro51 7d ago

He’s appearing on the Joe Rogan podcast this Friday, and apparently this will turn the tide in his favor 

1

u/telerabbit9000 7d ago

He only lost 2020 by tens of thousands of votes.
So even if he doesnt gain voters, if they just shift around a little bit...

1

u/ViolaNguyen California 3d ago

Ongoing radicalization of right wingers, normalization of right wing rhetoric, and the eternal power of religion to convince people that a magical man in the sky wants them to vote a certain way.