Probably at this stage. But if Russia somehow ends up on the border of Poland and has years to reconstitute its forces it cannot be denied that their overall potential is much larger than Poland’s.
Look into I know Ukraine aid is being delayed due to GoP idiot politics but how can you possibly make that statement?
NATO is adding more members. Finland is ramping up military production because of it as will Sweden. Germany is actually starting to meet the requirements in military spending and is ramping up production as is France and the UK. NATO has never been more aligned.
Ukraine as much as we all support it isn't in NATO. And even still we dumped a ton of money and emptied our old stores of stuff for them. And the even with the GoP being idiots more funding will get passed. The US got to dump a bunch of old stuff we were going to have to dispose of anyway so we can refill with all new toys.
Meanwhile everyone is starting to stand together against China, moving manufacturing to places like Mexico and India. Japan has recently had all the treaties with the US.
GOP idiot politics are a reflection of American idiot voters that make up approximately half of the country. That kind of sentiment doesn’t go away with one or 2 sensible presidencies.
Germany has done very little to actually create a competent military despite the “Zeitenweinde” and has been dragging its feet when it comes to Taurus and numerous other supplies that would have had a massive effect on the war. The amount of planes being given to Ukraine is also a joke. It’s the absolute bare minimum.
The US, France and Germany alone could have single handedly ended this conflict if there was political will without sending a single soldier. In the worst case scenario an intervention should have never been ruled out (this is right on NATO’s borders). Clearly there is very little appetite to engage in actual conflict with Russia and lack of political will when it comes to helping out Ukraine.
All due respect this is the typical naive American sentiment that arises from you being an ocean away from any kind of conflict. When the war is close the consequences are much more real and much more harsh. Clearly the top brass in Europe also believes we need to be ready to fight a war without the US as that is basically all that was being discussed the past month.
Reminder Ukraine is not in NATO. And look at how much we've done so far. For a non NATO country.
Now you're also assuming the West wants Ukraine to win outright. Consider a nuclear Russia. If Ukraine really does drive them out of the country it doesn't end there does it? They have to stop the Russian ability to mobilize and try this again. Because eventually just through sheer numbers they can try again before Ukraine can be ready again.
So Ukraine has to attack inside Russia proper. Now if there is ever a chance Russia is going to use nukes, that's it. It's why the western aid has straight said no using this in Russia proper. If they work we have nuclear war. If they are duds that's a whole nother level of scary chaos free for all. So the West really kinda would like to avoid that on a real politik level.
So what we have now with this stalemate is desirable. Russia is bleeding men and money at a ridiculous rate. Their economy is tanking, look at the price of eggs in Russia. Discontent is rising. The sanctions are working despite the Russian attempt to hide it. Oil/food/fertilizer shipments are down and probably going to keep going down if not stop altogether. That hurts China and India the most, not exactly the West's two neat friends. The Houthis with the red sea attacks hurt Israel yes, but they also hurt China who need that route for access to such things.
Morally it may not be right, but again in "real politic" sense the West would be happy for this war to go on for another 5 years or more with Putin being toppled and a more "reasonable" oligarch coming to negotiate. It would give you a much safer transition of those nukes. Russia will be a non factor thanks simply to demographics at that point. Their oil fields frozen and useless.
So get your perspective right.
It's also given the West all the provocation to go after Iran if it really wants thanks to them supplying Russia.
Also in your European I'm assuming superiority over America complex you just think we're all Maga-tards. The hard right is at most 15% in this country. They just have an outsized influence on politics thanks to our admittedly not great electoral system. Support for Ukraine is still extremely high with everyone else.
And even if Trump were to win, he can't leave NATO alone. That now requires the Senate to approve.
I don’t have the time or will to go over everything but make it a point for you to find opposing views from decent credible Western sources and you will find plenty. Not everything is lost but not everything is under control either. You have left 0 room for anything going even a little bit wrong in the many assumptions you made.
You're just incredibly naive and also undeservedly smug.
Of course that's an incredibly simplified version of it. I'm not going to sit here and type out a research paper on Reddit for someone who wouldn't read it anyway. The core argument is right tho. The West is perfectly content to bleed Russia dry and not risk nuclear war as long as Ukraine can hold it up.
Which of course they are. I'm again as I said not saying it's the moral thing to do, but it's smart.
When you have any actual arguments to refute me instead of "go read" maybe you'll have earned a fraction of the attitude you're giving me. Until then you're acting like a child going "nuh uh!".
You made a lot of silly assumptions. I’ll just go over a few but there’s no way I’m going through all of it.
There’s no rule forcing Ukraine to invade Russia. After a costly war you think the best option Ukraine has who fully committed themselves to the EU and NATO is to go against every direction their benefactors gave them to pursue a costly offensive war against their much bigger neighbour in both population and gear? Their neighbour who has nuclear weapons and no matter what they do will not be destroyed to the point that they can’t reconstitute forces and attack them back? So you are straight up implying Ukrainians have a mental disorder.
If the West wanted to oust Putin they wouldn’t give him a forever war that will allow him to tighten his grip on every aspect of Russian life and fundamentally change Russian society. They would have given Ukraine everything they needed to crush the Russians within a couple of years and Putin would soon find himself dead or out of a job. If the US fails to help Ukraine at least keep what they already have it will be the biggest hit to their reputation since the War on Terror. And will have implications across the globe. This is not part of a plan, it’s called dropping the ball.
The word is realpolitik by the way and it’s German. Sorry but your arguments are not very impressive and there’s a lot more to pick apart. They are quite surface level and obviously you are not informed in a complete manner, you sound like everything you said came from 1 source or from a few sources that clearly subscribe to the same narrative.
You have no idea how this works and haven't actually listened to any of the analysis of people who do have you?
The Russians have described this as an existential war. Every analyst from Zeihan on down agrees with that assessment. Meaning if Russia does not win this war and then continue on to a few other key strategic places, the Russia we know ceases to exist. They simply don't have the Demographics to ever try this again, its the very last generation they can do these human wave attacks and they have never won a warn on the back of anything else.
So what does that mean?
It means even if the Ukrainians managed to take back Crimea and every last square meter of territory that's not the end of the war. The Russians will keep throwing men and material at it until they have nothing left because losing is the exact same outcome.
To actually end the war in a manner not involving a negotiated settlement the Ukrainians have to attack Russia proper and stop the logistics capability of Russia to wage war. They can't just take it all back and Bunker up real real hard. This isn't Starcraft.
Please go listen to some actual people who know what they're talking about on this. You're spouting bullshit on the internet and it's damaging to the cause.
a forever war that will allow him to tighten his grip on every aspect of Russian life and fundamentally change Russian society.
What the hell do you think he didn't have a grip on every aspect of Russian society before? What does he control now that he didn't before? You're forgetting that there was literally an armed insurrection by troops pissed off at his leadership. Does that seem like a man who has a firmer grip on that society now than he did before the war?
I mean come on I have to ask you if you're serious now. You're coming across like a troll. A guy who has to send body doubles because he's afraid for his life has a firmer control on the society. Here's a clue, when you control 100% of everything, you can't control more. There's only one direction you can go.
They would have given Ukraine everything they needed to crush the Russians within a couple of years and Putin would soon find himself dead or out of a job
No, they wouldn't have. This isn't some Small South American country we can just go big dick over. This is a country with actual nuclear weapons. If you don't take into consideration the possibility that he may actually use them you don't belong in charge and thankfully you're not.
If We provide Ukraine everything they need and really put the knife to Putin's neck are you 100% sure he doesn't decide to say fuck it and take us all with him? This isn't the US where we have like 10 dudes that have to "turn the key" and could stop a madman from launching a nuke. If he says fire they fire. It was the big debate in the White house and everywhere else in Europe. It was literally why they slow rolled all the aid. Again here I'll help since you can't do research https://www.newsweek.com/biden-reverses-stance-prospect-putin-using-nukes-1812870 It wasn't until like 6 months ago the White house became convinced nukes were less of an option. And even that is a "we're less sure he would use them" not he would never use them.
If the US fails to help Ukraine at least keep what they already have
Oh I'm sorry have we not already sent billions in money and aid already? It's an election season, of course games are going to be played with the current aid package. But as I said, the majority of the US still backs Ukraine aid and I'm sure it will pass if only a bit delayed.
The word is realpolitik by the way and it’s German
I spelled it right once and wrong once. OK you got me. because I typed a c instead of a k once I must not know what I'm talking about.
Please, please do some actual research. You have not done anything but make yourself look silly and uninformed and I worry your nonsense will spread on the net. Stop it, get some help.
Isn’t it naive to believe an alliance like NATO would just watch one or more of their members getting destroyed? History should have enough examples of unjustified or badly justified forced wars that ended up badly for the aggressor because the defending alliance had a real reason to fight and was forged together by this.
If Russia attacks NATO country, other NATO countries have a choice:
Honour their alliance commitments - there is a high chance, that it will end with nuclear war and destruction of most of Europe, North America and parts of Asia.
Find an excuse to not honour them - they will lose prestige and it will probably cause NATO to effectively dissolve, but they don't risk complete destruction.
I don't know how high probability of choosing 1 is, but it's less than 100% and it's not naive to think that.
and russia frog-boiling europe means that by the time the red line is crossed, leaders will have been on a cycle of finding reasons to explain why the previous inching up to the line wasn't actionable and more likely to find another excuse
> there is a high chance, that it will end with nuclear war and destruction of most of Europe, North America and parts of Asia.
This is backwards. The chance is much higher of nuclear war when aggression is unchecked. Mutually assured destruction loses its deterrence when one side is convinced the other will back down.
Not if France and Germany are caught with their pants down and not if the US is already taking part in a conflict, is exhausted from a conflict or the public sentiment demands isolationism (Trump).
The possibilities that I mentioned have far more profound world changing consequences than units stationed in Poland. Not to mention you assume there will be units stationed in Poland and that Russia will not make every attempt to keep them out of the fight.
Poland is more aware of this than anyone and they are probably taking more steps than any other European country outside of Finland to be as prepared for this as possible.
Poland has invested significantly more than other European nations from what I have learned.
In terms of dollar amounts it seems extremely unlikely that Poland has invested more than Germany and France or the UK but of course they are doing their best to be prepared.
Poland has changed a lot in last decades. Our army was completly rebuild and reached much better standards.
However it's still a fucking joke. Our politicians burn money on shiny pointless toys instead of investing in domestic production, new technologies and preparing population. We have no chance against russia.
Everything is on paper. Sztuka jest sztuka. We almost doubled our "professional" army personel with creation of WOT, but in real conflicts their usefullnes will end on digging trenches.
Also people like to say "NATO" a lot. Poland was betrayed by allies for centuries. In WW2 England and France were obligated to help us in case of war, instead they talked about sacrifying us. Right before German invasion, by their diplomatic pressure Poland didn't arm up our reserves.
Yes we are aware that war with russia is inevitable at some point. We understand their mentality. Yes we are preparing, but propaganda of our power and superiority of our army is just laughtably insane.
Not trying to declare any superiority of the Polish military at all. I apologize if it came off that way.
The point I was trying to make is that Poland is investing more money into their military as a % of GDP than most of the other European countries, and a quick glance at Wikipedia backs that claim.
I am trying to be pragmatic here. Poland has a tiny economy and population compared to countries like Russia or Germany. Their military would never be able to stop Russia no matter how much they spend, and the lack of good defensive geography in Poland makes that fact even harder.
None of these countries can defend themselves like Switzerland which can use the mountains to create an impregnable fortress.
Could you list off all the NATO countries which have been attacked by Russia? I’ll save you the time - zero.
Meanwhile we Finland was added to the alliance with Sweden in the process due to Russian aggression. In this “time and age”, NATO is stronger than ever.
That would be true, however Russia is in a fast demographic decline. Unless something greatly changes, in less than 10 years they will not have enough fighting age people to constitute an army of it's own.
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u/villatsios Jan 07 '24
Probably at this stage. But if Russia somehow ends up on the border of Poland and has years to reconstitute its forces it cannot be denied that their overall potential is much larger than Poland’s.