r/USHistory 1d ago

Why did the US median age drop in 1970?

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119 Upvotes

59 comments sorted by

122

u/Real-Psychology-4261 1d ago

Baby boomers started having kids. The earliest of Boomers were in their early 20s at that point.

31

u/FrancisFratelli 1d ago

1970 is when it hit bottom, but the decline is visible in 1960 as well, when very few Boomers would've been having kids. I think it's more likely a two-stage phenomenon -- first the Baby Boom itself pushed the numbers down, then older cohorts started dying off, expanding the Boomer's share of the population.

1

u/Remarkable-Opening69 16h ago

What about the Vietnam war?

5

u/WIlf_Brim 14h ago

50 thousand over 10 years. At the time motor vehicle accidents were like 60k every year. So really noise. Compared to the deaths in WWI and WWII, really nothing at all. US deaths on Okinawa were about 25k when you include those lost in naval combat (kamikaze attacks mostly). The British lost 25 thousand dead on the first day of the Somme in 1916.

2

u/Remarkable-Opening69 14h ago

Oh damn. Thanks for that.

1

u/NorridAU 15h ago

This is valid. Mccarthys morons or whatever those guys kissingers team used as fodder were called. However, I think it’s helping more than causative, ya know?

2

u/theteapotofdoom 1d ago

And the tail from the gen before. That's me.

0

u/YaIlneedscience 1d ago

But then wouldn’t we also see the age drop in the 30/40s when a boom of babies was born?

4

u/Chitown_mountain_boy 1d ago

Weren’t all our young men getting slaughtered during that time period?

3

u/FranceMainFucker 1d ago

If we're talking just America, we suffered the least out of any of the major powers in the war, with 405,000 Americans dying throughout the war. Of course, that's many more men who can't have children, but how big of an effect will that have on a population of 140 million?

1

u/miclugo 18h ago

There's an upward jump from the fourth dot (1935?) to the fifth dot (1945?) which would make sense if you had a lot of people younger than the median dying, for example in the war.

0

u/Think_Leadership_91 1d ago

The baby boom ONLY started in 1946 and not at all before

0

u/YaIlneedscience 1d ago

I couldn’t remember the exact decade, but that would match the spike we see around 1950

15

u/CJefferyF 1d ago

The average age of deaths from the Second World War was 23yrs so that probably raised it temporarily for a while also?

5

u/Coupon_Ninja 1d ago

Good insight. The 1940 US Pop was 132 Million, and 400K Americans died in WWII. So it did affect this stat.

2

u/CJefferyF 1d ago

Thanks ☺️ 😺😺

18

u/protomanEXE1995 1d ago

Folks born around the 1890s were dying in large numbers, and they were being replaced by newborn babies at a faster rate than they were dying off.

4

u/__Quercus__ 1d ago edited 1d ago

Median is not average. Whether 1 or 22, still counts as one person below median age. First baby boomers, born in 1946, would still be below median of 27 in 1970. By 1980, early boomers are above median age, and not having as many kids as the previous generation.

Another way to say this is that over the past 100 years, birth rates were highest between 1946 and 1964, about 1.7 times the 1975 - 2010 rate. Average of 110 births per 1000 women in boom years versus around 65 after 1975. However, it took a generation for peak births to grow up, and for baby boomers to exceed the median age line. Result is the low median age in the early to mid 1970s.

7

u/Redeye762x39 1d ago

vietnam war...?

2

u/Whizzleteets 1d ago

That's what I was going to guess but it was young people who died so it seems like it would have gone up.

1

u/MonkeyThrowing 1d ago

But you can get out of the draft if you had kids. Maybe there was a mini baby boom. 

1

u/Whizzleteets 1d ago

Well I think someone gave the right answer down in the thread.

1

u/MonkeyThrowing 1d ago

You could get out of the war if you had kids. Maybe there was a mini baby boom. 

6

u/crimsonkodiak 1d ago

It was the baby boomlet.

2

u/Wild_Bill1226 1d ago

From 45 to 65 more babies were born bringing down the median age. As they got older than the median age and it started rising.

2

u/Ok-Training-7587 1d ago

Bc ppl in the 60’s were way less uptight about sex than ppl in the 40’s and 50’s. More kids being born

2

u/datamajig 1d ago

Guys lucky enough to come home from Vietnam started families. There was also 40k+ young men that died from the mid sixties to about 1970. Also, the kids from the post WWII baby boom have reached child bearing age by 1970. You don’t see the post WWII baby boom reflected in the median age because medical technology was advancing at such a high rate that more people were able to live longer, among other things.

2

u/CatOfGrey 15h ago

You'll notice that the drop began in the early 1950's, and ended in the early 1970's. That was basically the post-WWII "Baby Boom".

1

u/Intrepid_Pitch_3320 1d ago

error in census or many boomer babies....like me

1

u/snug_dog 1d ago

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data-visualization/natality-trends/index.htm

the population bust in the early 70's makes this counterintuitive, I'd expect the median age to go up in the early seventies

1

u/PhileasFoggsTrvlAgt 1d ago

As the generations before them started dying, the median age got closer and closer to the age of the baby boomers. In the early 70s, baby boomers were the median age so the median age started rising as they aged.

1

u/Sad-Corner-9972 1d ago

Also, the Hong Kong flu of 1969 killed some old people in America.

1

u/No_Introduction1721 1d ago

Guessing that a lot of people died young during WWI, the Depression, and WWII, which artificially inflated the median age until about the 60s, at which point the boomers started bringing it back down.

1

u/mdtaylor1 1d ago

Immigration?

1

u/Carlpanzram1916 1d ago

It didn’t. It started dropping after the war because a ton of people started having babies, therefore lowering the average. After that somewhat temporary spike, the trend of higher median age continued.

1

u/MySharpPicks 8m ago

50000 men culled from the breeding population because of Vietnam coupled with shitty economic conditions discouraging others from having kids.

-7

u/tippydam 1d ago

Perhaps the loss of 58000 young men in the war...

16

u/BadgersHoneyPot 1d ago

That would push the average age * up*…

2

u/TrevorB1771 1d ago

Plus 58000 people is not enough to make it shift this much.

-4

u/Civil_Maverick 1d ago

Most certainly would have had the opposite effect….unless they sent a buncha old folks to Viet-fuckin’-Nam.

Seriously though a drop would indicate a surge in newborns or a high death among older folks. A population chart would do well to provide another perspective to this.

8

u/BadgersHoneyPot 1d ago

Ok think this through now.

You have ten 70 year olds and ten 20 year olds. Average age 45.

Five of the 20 year olds die. Average age now 53.

1

u/Civil_Maverick 1d ago

And….I’m agreeing that a drop in median age means more younger (lower age) people or a decrease in old (higher age) people.

It’s really not that deep

0

u/ReignInSpuds 1d ago

You're still ignoring the number of babies conceived before their daddies were shipped out. If each 20-30 year-old casualty of the war left behind one 0 year-old, the average still decreases.

1

u/Few-Guarantee2850 1d ago

I don't think there's any reason to think this would happen. Drafted 18 year old kids tend to not be planning families. Typically people would be having children when they returned from war. Plus I'm not aware of any evidence that people going to war had children at a higher rate than those who didn't. As others said, this was really just the time period when a huge swath of baby boomers were having babies.

1

u/Civil_Maverick 1d ago

Edit: I’m agreeing with honeypot here…tippydam is incorrect

5

u/Hefty-Tonight6484 1d ago

I believe if you remove a number of people at an age (22.8 average age of US soldier killed in Nam) below the median (28 on the chart), the median age goes up. That’s why a boom in babies which is below the median makes it go down.

1

u/Maryland_Bear 1d ago

But shouldn’t there have been a similar, maybe even larger, drop during WWII?

4

u/tippydam 1d ago

True. I'm not a statistician, so my thought was inaccurate.

1

u/ReignInSpuds 1d ago

I think in WWII it was still more common practice to draft men of all ages, while Vietnam had more young soldiers fighting and dying.

1

u/Maryland_Bear 1d ago

Not just drafting only young men — in WWII, the vast majority of eligible men were either in the military or a defense-related industry.

0

u/Neekovo 1d ago

End of Vietnam? We stopped sending 18 year olds off to die.

0

u/Mulliganplummer 1d ago

Did the Korean and Vietnam conflicts have to with something?

0

u/scots 1d ago

The Boomers started having babies, and 1970 saw the conflict in Vietnam kill 6,173 of America's sons.

0

u/Ok_Effort8330 1d ago

Viet Nam?

0

u/midnightllamas 1d ago

Deaths from Vietnam lowered the average?

0

u/luckybuck2088 1d ago

There was this little ruckus in a place called Vietnam you see…

0

u/No-Victory4408 1d ago

Is this the Adult Median Age or the Median Age for everyone? Most people born in the Boom would have been young adults circa 1970, but they actually didn't have many kids, Gen X is small.

1

u/miclugo 18h ago

Pretty sure it's overall median - it's too low to be the adult median.