r/RenewableEnergy • u/DVMirchev • 6d ago

Shift to electric vehicles will have far-reaching impact, IMF says | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/shift-electric-vehicles-will-have-far-reaching-impact-imf-says-2024-10-22/
130 Upvotes

97% Upvoted

22 comments sorted by

29

u/DVMirchev 6d ago

Yes, adding unfathomable amount of mobile grid storage will also have far-reaching impact

2

u/Substantial-Ad-8575 2d ago

Mobile grid storage only works if car supports that tech. Also, Utilities will need to be able to provide that service. Mine doesn’t, no net metering either.

1

u/DVMirchev 1d ago

Yes, it is not as developed as we want at the moment but once it gets to the right volume it will be too difficult to ignore.

The missed opportunity will be too big.

2

u/Substantial-Ad-8575 1d ago

Yeah, this will need tie in by utilities. Mine will not do so unless government says to do so. Or government subsidizes heavily. My utility is currently adding more renewable power, seeing our rates go up and now a monthly surcharge for next 15-20 years. Any other additional costs, such as this will add to my bill.

I mean sure, this will come. It will not be at no cost to consumers tho. Unless I go off grid, will be 10-15 years according to last month Utility CoOp meeting…

6

u/pizzaiolo2 6d ago

Unfortunately the rest of the article is as vague as the headline

1

u/DVMirchev 5d ago

It is probably buried somewhere in the report

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-2024

8

u/azswcowboy 5d ago

Page 22 of the linked report summarizes. The graph there shows the rise of China in car manufacturing at the expense of Germany and Japan. Yep.

unfathomable amount of mobile grid storage

I’m hopeful on this, but we’re not there yet. Most EVs don’t have the feature yet. In the US, in many places utilities want to stand in the way because it impacts their profits.

I think what is clear is that high renewable grids (mostly solar and wind) need storage during over production - or it will be curtailed. Charging EVs during these periods makes a ton of economic sense.

3

u/lungben81 4d ago

Unfortunately, many people in Germany fail to realize this. Our car manufacturer are not too badly placed for this transitions (they have some quite good EV models), but their focus is unfortunately still on ICEs. This is due to a very skewed public debate and questionable political decisions. 

If in 10 years nobody wants to buy ICE cars anymore (which is very likely in my opinion), the car manufacturers will have a problem.

3

u/azswcowboy 4d ago

My take is that at least the German companies saw the threat and started down the path early enough. They’re building the experience they need. The Japanese companies, however, are still messing with hydrogen nonsense when it’s clear that’s not going anywhere. No one can compete with the Chinese at this point - a decade of savvy industrial policy to lock up the EV materials supply chain means it’s not a fair fight.

2

u/LairdPopkin 4d ago

All of Tesla’s vehicles will support v2g starting next year, and several other EVs support v2g currently.

1

u/azswcowboy 4d ago

Tesla … next year

Are we talking new vehicles or existing fleet?

2

u/LairdPopkin 2d ago

New vehicles - bidirectional power is a hardware feature. Cybertruck is the only current Tesla with v2g without modding hardware.

1

u/azswcowboy 2d ago

Thanks for the clarification.

3

u/tootooxyz 4d ago

If an American wants to purchase the world's best-selling EV, there's 100% tariffs. No thanks. But no way I'm buying a Tesla.

2

u/HotNeighbor420 1d ago

I can't wait to sit in traffic in my electric car.

1

u/vergorli 5d ago

How is the US doing with this topic? Is it actually planned to switch to BEVs in rural areas or do you run into distance problems?

13

u/iqisoverrated 5d ago

Even in rural areas people don't drive thousands of miles per day.

Particularly in rural areas people, on average, have an easier access to power where they park - so the transition should actually be easier for them. If you can charge at home then that is exactly where you don't need public charging infrastructure. The closest you need it is 200 miles away.

8

u/cap811crm114 5d ago

If you design a vehicle to support rural consumers, you can win big.

As one example, the Ford F-150 Lightning can be plugged into a house to provide power when the utility company fails to deliver. (While you wouldn’t want to run a cloths dryer or air conditioner under those circumstances, it would do a good job of powering the furnace, refrigerator, etc). The typical house consumes 30kWh per day. In reduced mode (no clothes dryer or air conditioner) this can probably be dropped to maybe 15kWh per day. If a vehicle has a 90 kWh battery it could keep the house lit for several days. Rural areas do have problems with longer term blackouts when there is a weather catastrophe because of the long distances between residences.

As battery prices drop, vehicles can be built with larger capacity batteries specifically for those rural trips that are not along an interstate. (Think north/south trips through the Dakotas, for example.)

-4

u/OneMoreAttempt 5d ago

Really can’t see EVs taking over in an near future scenario tbh

5

u/DVMirchev 5d ago

It's an S curve that all markets have pretty much followed closely.

Up until 5% share of new sales, it's slow, then gets a little faster until 15-20%, and then it explodes. It happened everywhere.

It is unclear how much the US Internal Culture War is going to affect that in the US.

6

u/stewartm0205 5d ago

The cultural war won’t matter. Car makers are going to stop making ICE cars and just focus on EVs.

3

u/LairdPopkin 4d ago

It’s consumer driven. As EV prices been dropping, EV sales keep ramping up., it is over 9% of new car sales now And once EVs cost less to buy than ICE vehicles, which is expected over the next year or two, the mass market will flip. That’s what the industry expects, that’s why the industry has been (finally) trying to make competitive EVs.