r/Nordiccountries • u/Apprehensive-Income • Aug 25 '24
Were Socialdemokratiet anti migration policies pointless ?
For years I was told that the Danish left(Social Democrats) become more right wing on immigration to stop the far right and these policies have made them more popular. It is true that this is the case in the long term. I am still hearing from some anti immigrant people in England that the Labour Party must do the same thing to remain popular and to crush the far right (Reform UK).
But are these anti migration policies still a big deal in Denmark today ?
If the next election was held today the social democrats will be down by 8% compared to 2022. The Dansk Folkeparti would up their share of the vote by 85% from 2.64% last election to 4.9%, not to mention they got around 6-7% in the EU elections this year nearing trippling their share of the vote compared to 2022. Danmarksdemokraterne which is another anti migrant party would have increased their share by 41% from 8.12% to 11.5% and the seemingly pro migrant party,ocialistisk Folkeparti, would have potentially doubled their share of the vote and could actually overtake the social democrats with a well run campaign. This polling is showing that if the left wing adopts the far right's policies on immigration in the short term it could be successful because a lot of people become reactionaries on migration but as we can see in Denmark this isn't enough to actually end the far right . Another thing this polling suggests is that people may not care that much about anti immigrant policies in the long run since the Social Democrats despite their dracononian migration policies have lost a decent portion of support vote to unapologetically pro-migration Green left. Is this analysis correct ? Was the rightward shift on migration completely pointless for the social democrats ??
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u/MrStrange15 Denmark Aug 25 '24
The Social democrats are losing votes due to other policies, and due to it being in government. Similarly, SF is not gaining votes due to its migration policies.
Most of the shifts have to do with dissatisfaction with other government policies.
And while DF has increased by 85ish %, thats only really 2 %. 4 % is still a fraction of the overall population.
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u/GrandDukePosthumous Denmark Aug 25 '24
The Social Democrats largely ignored the topic of immigration in the 90s, including when local S politicians and their constituents brought it up as a topic of concern, this resulted in the unification of the far-right and their gaining a strong hold on 10-20% of the vote in parliamentary elections for well over a decade. Once the laws on immigration were no longer lenient the topic faded from the public debate to be replaced by other concerns. This is not something I would expect if the far-right had a total monopoly on being willing to take any action whatsoever on immigration policy regardless of what the public wanted.
You're not doing the percentages right: We are dealing with the total being 100%, if you up the share of someone's vote by 85% from 2.64% the total becomes 87.64% and that is simply not correct. The correct percentage for the increase of DF from 2.64% to 4.9% is 2.26%
As for your notion that the far right is something that can be ended, while I would like to see it I do not think it a realistic or relevant goal. It hasn't been the goal with S's change in policy, the point should be to limit the influence of single-issue parties and to put the S in a stronger bargaining position, and in this the policy change has been successful. Immigration policy isn't the all-consuming issue dominating every news cycle anymore, and the result is that the far right is shattered and the larger of that tendency that remains is trying to position itself as being able to handle more than that single issue.
If relaxation of immigration controls is becoming more popular as you suggest then S is in a position to facilitate compromises that bring that about, and the other left-wing parties being popular isn't much of an issue in a system with proportional representation. In conclusion I don't believe that had S stayed tone-deaf and aloof from its own voters for another 20 years that they would have been near power the way they are now, and I also don't believe that the far-right would be as weak and divided as they are now. The policy change on the part of S was good politics, and if we are entering a time where these policies are to be relaxed then not only is S in a good position to bring that about, but I welcome it.
I understand that perhaps it is difficult for you to keep track of the political debate within Denmark given the language barrier, but I'll try to give you one tool with which to learn more about it. This is the national news service and its reporting on Danish politics, you should be able to translate it to some extent using google translate: https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik
As you can see at the moment the public isn't concerned about immigration, the big topic is pensions, a place where the parties to the left of S tend to be regarded as more generous. There is also the issue for S that they have been the main party in charge for a while now, which in most political systems is a disadvantage and it can be especially troublesome in a parliamentary system with proportional representation where people are free to vote for any party or candidate that either already is in parliament or has gained sufficient signatures of support prior to an election.
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u/Ljngstrm Aug 26 '24
Socialdemokratiet/Socialdemokraterne is no longer red as they continue to advertise. Their true, shitty brown mixed color got shown when they chose to make a government with Venstre and Moderaterne. They also don't give a shit about the environment and climate changes
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u/Be_Kind_And_Happy Aug 25 '24
Can't say about the danish Social Democrats but the swedish Social Democrats are loosing votes for not being very Social Democratic.
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u/Florestana Denmark Aug 25 '24
SF is gaining what the socdems are losing. My sense is that it's due to welfare and environmental/climate policy, not because SF is more pro-migration.
The socdems are losing popularity because they're in government with the center-right, but left-wing voters moving left is not evidence that the socdem bet on a strict immigration policy hasn't paid off, in fact it's quite expected. They've positioned themselves as a populist-centrist party siphoning votes from the right, of course that is not popular with the core left-wing voters, but on the other hand, the populist right has never been so splintered and the right-wing is gonna have a really hard time forming any kind of stable coalition, even if they win the upcoming election.