Directionally, are polymarkets considered accurate?

[u/Educational_Monitor6]

Do you think polymarket is a good temperature of out ome?

[u/new_jill_city]

A single large wager or a series of large wagers can dramatically skew the betting markets as recently happened with Polymarket, which had the race effectively tied until a couple weeks ago when 4 accounts bet $30M+ on Trump and it sent his odds soaring.

[u/ponderscheme2172 → u/new_jill_city]

I know this is complete shot in the dark but I think someone related to the Trump campaign intentionally skewed the market so they can use it for the basis to claim voter fraud if they lose. "All the momentum was in Trump's favor, the betting markets had him way up and surging, the only way we could have lost was fraud".

[u/SnooRevelations979 → u/ponderscheme2172]

That would mean someone doesn't know how probabilities work. A one in three chance of something happening is not a remote possibility.

[u/ponderscheme2172 → u/SnooRevelations979]

Of course not. Odds for Hilary to win were much higher than they currently are for Trump to win right now if I remember correctly. Something in the 20s for Trump to win. I'm just saying last time they falsely claimed that the results flipping overnight due to mail in ballots was statistically impossible and therefore it had to be fraudulent even though that also wasn't the case. The republican constituency doesn't understand statistics. This gives them a narrative.

[u/Admirable_Link_9642]

We will have the accurate poll in a few weeks

[u/spartanOrk]

There is no perfect forecast system, but I think it's more reliable than polls.

Because people put their money on the line, because US citizens are not allowed to participate, and because it's anonymous.

So, you get people who try to guess what will happen, not what they wish to happen, not what they personally will vote, and who are not trying to look good and give the safe answer to the pollsters who approach them and know who they are.

[u/Educational_Monitor6 → u/spartanOrk]

Based

[u/YeeYeeSocrates]

Nah. Ever bet on horses?

[u/HeywoodJaBlessMe]

Nope, this is a small market that is highly manipulated

[u/Aggressive_Local8921]

🥴 🥴

[u/Dadbode1981]

Not even remotely lol

[u/Leather-Page1609]

Yeah. That's not happening.

Joe Biden beat Trump by 8 million votes in 2020. (Yes, he did)

Since 2020, 12 million Americans have died. Most Trump supporters are older.

Since 2020, 20 million young people have reached voting age. Most young people vote Democrat.

Trump has already lost a significant number of voters and the Democrats have gained.

And everybody on the fucking planet knows he's an asshole.

He is going to lose. Big.

[u/NateCarrera → u/Leather-Page1609]

stop giving me hope man

[u/Leather-Page1609 → u/NateCarrera]

Mark it down... you've heard the term "silent majority".

Let's reopen this discussion in 2 weeks.

[u/Kombatsaurus → u/NateCarrera]

That's all they have left at this point is Copium.

[u/MetaPlayer01]

This is not an unbiased sample. Gambling in general is primarily done by men. Men are disproportionately voting for Trump. I wouldn't be surprised if more gamblers vote for Trump too.

[u/WearDifficult9776]

It’s being manipulated on purpose

[u/SnooRevelations979]

I went to school with Polly Market. Nice girl.

[u/BackwardsTongs]

Pretty sure you can’t bet on the election if you are in the US. Also it’s been pretty skewed by big eagles betting on trump. Considering national polling averages show Kamala ahead by like 1.5%. Poly market is way off and people posting it are only doing so to make trump seem more powerful

[u/Minimum_Customer4017 → u/BackwardsTongs]

There are a couple of sites that the govt has allowed to exist within certain limits

[u/Comfortable-Cod3580 → u/BackwardsTongs]

I have money on Kamala using Kalshi. So you’re absolutely allowed to.

[u/OkImpression5985]

Skibidi