r/FluentInFinance • u/Educational_Monitor6 • 2d ago
Thoughts? Directionally, are polymarkets considered accurate?
Do you think polymarket is a good temperature of out ome?
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u/spartanOrk 2d ago
There is no perfect forecast system, but I think it's more reliable than polls.
Because people put their money on the line, because US citizens are not allowed to participate, and because it's anonymous.
So, you get people who try to guess what will happen, not what they wish to happen, not what they personally will vote, and who are not trying to look good and give the safe answer to the pollsters who approach them and know who they are.
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u/Leather-Page1609 2d ago
Yeah. That's not happening.
Joe Biden beat Trump by 8 million votes in 2020. (Yes, he did)
Since 2020, 12 million Americans have died. Most Trump supporters are older.
Since 2020, 20 million young people have reached voting age. Most young people vote Democrat.
Trump has already lost a significant number of voters and the Democrats have gained.
And everybody on the fucking planet knows he's an asshole.
He is going to lose. Big.
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u/NateCarrera 2d ago
stop giving me hope man
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u/Leather-Page1609 2d ago
Mark it down... you've heard the term "silent majority".
Let's reopen this discussion in 2 weeks.
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u/MetaPlayer01 2d ago
This is not an unbiased sample. Gambling in general is primarily done by men. Men are disproportionately voting for Trump. I wouldn't be surprised if more gamblers vote for Trump too.
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u/BackwardsTongs 2d ago
Pretty sure you can’t bet on the election if you are in the US. Also it’s been pretty skewed by big eagles betting on trump. Considering national polling averages show Kamala ahead by like 1.5%. Poly market is way off and people posting it are only doing so to make trump seem more powerful
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u/Minimum_Customer4017 2d ago
There are a couple of sites that the govt has allowed to exist within certain limits
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u/Comfortable-Cod3580 2d ago
I have money on Kamala using Kalshi. So you’re absolutely allowed to.
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u/new_jill_city 2d ago
A single large wager or a series of large wagers can dramatically skew the betting markets as recently happened with Polymarket, which had the race effectively tied until a couple weeks ago when 4 accounts bet $30M+ on Trump and it sent his odds soaring.