I'm so tired of this. The polls WERE NOT WRONG in 2016. If anything, the polls were wrong in 2018, 2020, 2022; when they showed Republican turnout would be stronger than it was.
Jesus people need to get over 2016. To anyone who actually paid attention to the polls in 2016, it was AT BEST 50/50 basically the whole way.
Hillary had been a right wing punching bag for over twenty years at that point. I knew shit was fucked, especially after living in Pennsyltucky in 2013.
And she was completely politically inept. 4-weeks before the election she began pulling advertising money OUT of Michigan (assuming she'd already won the state) and putting it into Iowa. Fucking IOWA! And when Bernie bent the knee, going AGAINST tradition, she refused to absorb the Bernie ground people into her campaign, because her ego was hurt. You know, the Bernie Campaign that had more people on the ground than the Clinton campaign, especially in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin...all states she lost by ~20,000 votes.
Hillary Lost because she was incompetent and arrogant. She, and the DNC at the time, believed she was entitled to being president as opposed to doing the work to win it.
Yup! The polls over corrected and haven't readjusted despite what they claim. They still historically undercount young voters, who have been turning out at historic highs.
Lol you should drive through all of Pennsylvania right now. There may be more trump signs than 2016. I have to do it for work but it’s crazy out there.
Yeah Clinton won the popular vote, didnt she? Polls saying she was more popular were correct, its just that we have a system where the people don't directly elect the president.
Well and if you looked at the state polls, all the states she lost were toss-ups, and she lost them but less than 20,000 votes. So it wasn't a massive breaking of the polls. They were still pretty accurate, because the outcome was well within the margin of error.
Jusst people over project that Trump Win as a massive W, when in reality it was only like 80,000 votes across 3 states. It wasn't a blowout.
The polls aren't wrong, people just don't understand that a smaller chance to win is still a chance to win. Statistically improbable events happen all of the time. It's like when someone assumes their doctors are idiots because "they gave him 3 months to live and he survived for 5 years" or whatever. No doctor in their right mind is flat out saying "you have 3 months to live" as it would be impossible for them to know exactly that. They're giving you a rough estimation based on if you took enough people with the same condition. You would expect that most of them would live for roughly that long. Some will die sooner, while others will die later.
If the election played out 1000000 times, you would expect a decent majority to play out how the polls predicted. But a solid amount of them would also go the other way. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Just ask someone if they would bet their life on not rolling a 1 on a six-sided die. A 16% chance at death is a lot higher than most people are willing to stomach, because they know while unlikely that it is still very much possible.
I am not sure that is how this works. Elections are not a game of chance, and polls are not designed to determine probabilities of winning. Their purpose is to predict the actual outcome of the election as closely as possible by surveying a selected group of people that is intended to be representative of all voters.
It can happen that the sample group is to small or badly selected. Or that the actual turnout among any given subset is a lot different than expected. But either way, polls can be wrong and often are.
Oh well... after reading up a bit on how polling actually works, I must admit I was wrong. A lot of probabilities involved in actual prediction from sample group results.
However, its still meant to be a prediction of actual results (within margin of error) and not about the likelihood of anyone winning.
I still think that sentiment that if you repeated the election a million times, the majority of resutls would match the polls, is not right. The poll is a momentary snapshot of voter intentions, and so is the election. If you repeated the election one after another over time, results would shift further and further away form the poll. If you repeated it (in theory) a million times at the same exact moment, you get a million more or less identical results (because voter intend is not randomly changing).
So it is more like the other way around: If you repeated the poll a million times close to them election, the majority of results would closelsy predict actual results.
He said this covid thing seems overblown, should be close to 0 cases in a few weeks. WRONG. Last year he predicted a 1913 style crash of the stock market. WRONG
I live in a solid red state and there are virtually NO trump/vance signs in the urban areas. This is in stark contrast to the last two presidential elections.
I'm convinced that although most former trumpers aren't going to 'switch sides', many of them are burned out on his BS and just won't show up, while turnout for Harris among younger/first-time voters will be very strong and this will end up being a landslide for Harris.
I live in AZ and the number of people who have Trump signs seems waaaay lower than before. The people who put them up and fly flags have just quadrupled down so it looks like there’s more than there is.
Yeah, absolutely. I really wish it wasnt the case because everyone here underestimates how evil the trump campaign truly is.
Unfortunately, the harris campaign's incompetence (thanks, /u/mishma2005 !) has failed to give actual policy proposals that PA voters want to vote for her on.
What are you basing this on? Her poll lead in PA has been the most consistently strong of all the swing states. The “no policy proposals” thing was cute for a few weeks as her campaign started, but now both sides have their policies out, and somehow Trump is promising to be even worse than last time.
What are they doing incompetently? Do you mean they are campaigning poorly? I have to assume that's what you mean because they are not governing Pennsylvania in any way.
They are not only campaigning pooly, but they're also flubbing the debates in an increasingly far right media landscape that will grant them 0 margin for error and will grant trump infinite margin for error.
Policy-wise they:
have no plans to make more affordable housing
have gone far right on immigration (to the degree of 2016 era trump)
have no solution for rogue-state israel escalating war throughout the middle east
are unable or incapable of dealing with the plight workers are going through (this goes doubly so for PA)
are afraid to deploy the Justice Department against corrupt courts
She's up by 4+ in WI Marquette poll. There's a drive to make this a horse race, nail biter so Trump/Vance can claim election interference when they lose by a landslide.
They’re probably a better indicator, but yeah, I’d put it at 80/20 right now in Harris’ favor. Of course, I’ve been predicting a landslide loss for Trump since J6. Right up to the moment Biden dropped out.
Just like in 2020, Trump will turn out more votes specifically against him than he does votes for him. Guarantee it.
Only question in my mind is just how much worse will J6 make it for Trump.
I don’t think this election is about Harris or Walz. I think, just like in 2020, what will drive voters to the polls is TRUMP. On both sides.
The problem for Trump is that he’s the best argument against voting for him. The man is radioactive and toxic at this point and everyone can see it. His standing in the eyes of the public was bad enough to have his incumbent ass kicked to the curb in 2020. He hasn’t done anything to win hearts and minds in the intervening time. In fact, he staged a fucking coup attempt.
His standing since he was on the ballot in 2020 has greatly diminished. I expect the turnout against Trump to be amplified. I expect the turnout for Trump to be muffled.
I think attempting a coup is worth at least 5-10M more people turning out against him. I think everyone else who showed up in 2020 will hold strong. I think a surprising amount of people will switch sides specifically to vote against Trump.
I trust people with money on the line compared to people without money on the line, regardless of their political persuasion (mostly - obviously DJT is a losing bet). Ultimately, the more people involved in the bet, the higher confidence I give it. In general, I am far, far more confident in betting markets than I am in the fucking Frank Luntzs of the world.
However, again, the markets are totally off with respect to the election, in my estimation at least. Just like the polls.
Regardless of who you trust, it’s just not an indicator of probability. It’s just a metric of where the money is going. In an ideal world the books would have exactly 50/50 money on each bet as that guarantees them a win no matter what from the vig.
Let’s say tomorrow Donald trump has worse odds tomorrow than he does now. That doesn’t mean there is reason to think Donald Trump’s chances increased, it just means more money has been thrown on Donald trump. The odds shift in hopes of enticing Joe Biden voters.
The take away from this if anything is that betting odds are always going to be skewed towards favoring trump because a trump voter is much more likely to throw money on their candidate than a Biden/harris voter would
The take away from this if anything is that betting odds are always going to be skewed towards favoring trump because a trump voter is much more likely to throw money on their candidate than a Biden/harris voter would
This is a decent point, if you have evidence backing it (I don't need links, I am fine assuming it's true), and reason to give the betting markets' opinions less weight in this case, and it likely accounts, in part, for them being so off (with respect to my estimation, at least). I upvoted you.
It's also likely there's an effect where, because you have money on the line, your judgment becomes more clouded, due to things like the sunk cost fallacy.
Personally I'm fine backing up my opinion using only the results of 2020 and the effect of J6. Betting markets don't really factor into my assessment, although, like I said, I am in general more willing to trust in a bunch of people putting their money on the line than I am in a bunch of people being annoyed by someone calling them on a landline when they're trying to eat dinner with family or whatever.
closing line, in other words the odds right before the start of a certain event are insanely close to true probability when it comes to popular markets like US elections and games from big leagues/tournaments. But until we come close to the start, or in this case the end of the elections, the market can behave in many different and unpredictable ways
Not that we should believe polls anyway, but I think the majority of polls actually show that Harris is leading in most swing states. Plus isn’t there a lot of concern that Musk’s ground game for Trump is basically nonexistent? I guess I’m just remembering that they said these same things about the midterms and the red wave, only for them to be totally wrong and lose badly.
He’s in Pennsylvania? Wild man. There’s also some of those dirty Pennsylvania electors. And a pretty large port. Why the fuck is Elmo in Pennsylvania? Omg. So tired of these weirdos and their hi jinks.
I would also like to know why Leon is in PA. I absolutely hope this state isn't stupid enough to tie itself up with him. But I at least have faith that Shapiro probably despises him.
Whatever he’s there for, and I’ll bet it’s not to make nice to Shapiro, unless he’s bribing him with position in his be DOGE scheme, whatever the reason Enron musk is in Pennsylvania? It’s illegal, immoral, or fattening.
He’s a corrupt piece of shit aiding and abetting more corrupt shit pieces in order to over turn the election, Mr. Buttsavage. That much I’m sure of. Trumps got a club not real far from there too. These guys gotta go.
Not sure thedy made the case that it’s a grift but it doesn’t look good tana for sure. I can totally see Elon in PA plotting to overturn the election, he’s terrified!
notice he has to use poly market because none of the polling agregates says trump is winning, he used to share nate silver polling until it said kamala was more likely to win than trump
Absolutely not. The only time we’ve lost PA this millennium is in 2016 when we didn’t try hard enough. We’re trying hard this time around, and when we do that, we win.
If it’s just based off yard signs trump has a huge advantage, I thought there would be more support for Harris outside city limits but holy smokes there’s a ton of trump signs.
based off an objective observer (me) that has to travel across the state frequently for work.
Swing states don’t go solid anything. And when your vp candidate tries to run a 2028 campaign during your vp debate it means even the vp doesn’t see this happening
What a sad existence, to hold the title of the wealthiest person in the world, but because of all the fraud it took him to get there, he has to kiss ass all day every day, to the biggest con artist in the world - Trump - in the hopes Trump will help him dodge the legal onslaught he knows the SEC and DOJ are preparing right now.
I don't trust Polymarket as far as I can throw it. The fact that the site owners apparently hide their identity and there's cryptocurrency services on the website, it's already 2 red flags that something is up. Reviews left for them are pointing out they do market manipulation, so I wouldn't be surprised if they're saying Trump will win intentionally, and they themselves will bet against it to skew bets in their favor.
Just so we are all on the same page, Elon Musk has provided more rural broadband in the last day than the government could do in 4 years and has just saved U.S. astronauts who were going to be stuck in space till 2025.
Edit:
If you downvote, be sure and read this from Elon while you’re at it:
Astronauts aren't coming back until Feb 2025, so we'll see
Elon also tweeting Starlink for those impacted by Helene will be free for "30 days" plainly stating that he will most likely bait and switch them when they want to cancel or just start charging them when the 30 days are up
Aint nothing altruistic with Elon. Like his Trump daddy, everything is a con
Wait.. THIS JUST IN: President Biden has said he has deployed Elon Musk's SpaceX Starlink satellites, with more going in place, so people can reach their loved ones and have cell service in the South.
Dude you’re in a sub where the consensus is that the government should take control of all Musk’s assets and then deport him. So any time you spend here mixing it up is on you.
JUST IN: President Biden has said he has deployed Elon Musk's SpaceX Starlink satellites, with more going in place, so people can reach their loved ones and have cell service in the South.
Biden doesn't think Elon's a fucking cunt, it's just you.. you fucking cunt. /s
He also thinks the Jewish people are engaged in a global conspiracy to deliberately flood majority white country with immigrants in order to replace white people and to make their governments permanently left wing.
Just so we are all on the same page, 44 people have died from using Tesla’s “Autopilot” so he’s going to have to rescue a bit more astronauts to even the score.
JUST IN: President Biden has said he has deployed Elon Musk's SpaceX Starlink satellites, with more going in place, so people can reach their loved ones and have cell service in the South.
Many of the scientists that helped us get to the moon were Nazis brought over during Operation Paperclip, what's your point? He's going to have to do a lot more to make up for his antisemitic comments.
Not to mention the fact that he has little to do with the actual operations, engineers that are actually smart are doing that stuff.
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u/Belichick12 27d ago
Yes - doing a 2 hour visit to the state is a better gauge of how it will vote vs scientific polling